I have never spoken with anyone there but it appears to be a well-run company. They have a solid onc. focus with decent products in reasonably attractive markets. Also seem to have good clinical development programs supporting their marketed products. The upcoming PDUFA date for Stivarga may move the price but probably not by that much. Q4/2012 results later this month will have more bearing on things I would think. Also Kyprolis clinical data later this year will have real impact on company's potential. One could certainly convince oneself that the price may find support in the high $60s/low $70s.
Every pharma company claims that building a world class oncology BU is a key part of their strategy so ONXX may be an attractive target. If Takeda was willing to buy Millennium seems likely that someone would look at ONXX.
Nice work Varan. I am trying to replicate the results just for fun. Do you have any more detailed data? Monthly returns for one of the pair sets would be great.
Selling FDA Approvals: Latest Results [View article]
Thanks Michael - I think many readers thought that I had some sort of problem/agenda with a certain company. I am genuinely ambivalent about these stocks. This is purely an observational piece. In fact I am rooting for all of these stocks to take off before approval. Gives them more room to fall thereafter.
Selling FDA Approvals: Latest Results [View article]
Thanks for reading - and for the comment. Like all strategies it does have an associated risk. I would not necessarily recommend this as a stand-alone strategy. When I first looked into it it was really to determine the best time to sell if one were holding through a news release. Given that, I am not sure it is as risky as many plays in the biotech arena given that the position is entered into after the news event and thus after the major price move - and most volatile period.
Alexza's Adasuve May Not Be Ready For FDA Approval [View article]
Something I wonder about is how many of the acutely agitated patients will actually be suitable candidates for this drug. As I understand it, the pivotal studies required patient consent and therefore selected for individuals who could be instructed in how to use the inhaler and who were motivated to comply.
Many of the patients I have seen with acute agitation presented in the ER in a paranoid, aggressive state or created chaos in hospital wards in the middle of the night throwing furniture through windows. There is just no way that Adasuve would be an option for patients like this.
The overall market also seems potentially very small. I read a study (admittedly it was a few years old) that claimed there were ~1M ER admissions for psychotic episodes per year in the US. Additional episodes may occur in different settings but the numbers are hardly overwhelming.
Selling An FDA Approval: Recent Results [View article]
Thanks! I personally think that the XNPT window is passed. It is up significantly over the last week (~20% over the week) and is getting pretty close to the PDUFA date now. It may well continue to run but too risky for me.
Selling An FDA Approval: Recent Results [View article]
As I understand it, the FDA cancelled RGEN's meeting because it has decided to issue a CRL on/before the June PDUFA date. The company expects a request for additional clinical data to support the NDA. Given that, if RGEN does end up in front of an advisory committee it will be based on a future NDA resubmission.
Potentially Good Entry Point For Protalix Bio Therapeutics [View article]
Just thought it would be worth noting the result of this recommendation. The article was published on Feb 22nd. On that day PLX closed at $5.41. The lowest it has been since then was $5.34 on 3/2/12. On 5/2/12 it hit a high of $7.70 before falling off to its current level of ~$6.50. So potential returns of ~20-40% in 2.5 months.
Why Pfizer Is One Of The Best Defensive Plays On The Market Today [View article]
PFE has been a terrible defensive stock in the past so I am not sure why it will be one of the best defensive plays in the future.
In the past 12 years it has consistently underperformed the market - and this was a period during which it was marketing the most successful drug in history (Lipitor) as well as the most recognised drug in history (Viagra).
It has a bloated, underachieving R&D department and seems to be completely misguided in its corporate development efforts - rebuilding a consumer health business now having sold its previous business to JNJ at a bargain price.
Revenue growth is almost impossible to achieve since the existing revenue is so large that there is nothing out there that can move the needle and make up for the Lipitor shortfall.
You can certainly invest in it for the dividend, but there are better options. Also, how is it paying the dividend? It has a ton of cash, but most of it is trapped overseas and PFE won't repatriate it because it thinks itself above paying tax.
Monthly Trading Of MDY, MVV And UMDD [View instapost]
I have never spoken with anyone there but it appears to be a well-run company. They have a solid onc. focus with decent products in reasonably attractive markets. Also seem to have good clinical development programs supporting their marketed products. The upcoming PDUFA date for Stivarga may move the price but probably not by that much. Q4/2012 results later this month will have more bearing on things I would think. Also Kyprolis clinical data later this year will have real impact on company's potential. One could certainly convince oneself that the price may find support in the high $60s/low $70s.
Every pharma company claims that building a world class oncology BU is a key part of their strategy so ONXX may be an attractive target. If Takeda was willing to buy Millennium seems likely that someone would look at ONXX.
Monthly Trading Of MDY, MVV And UMDD [View instapost]
Monthly Trading Of MDY, MVV And UMDD [View instapost]
Selling FDA Approvals: Latest Results [View article]
Selling FDA Approvals: Latest Results [View article]
Selling FDA Approvals: Latest Results [View article]
Alexza's Adasuve May Not Be Ready For FDA Approval [View article]
Many of the patients I have seen with acute agitation presented in the ER in a paranoid, aggressive state or created chaos in hospital wards in the middle of the night throwing furniture through windows. There is just no way that Adasuve would be an option for patients like this.
The overall market also seems potentially very small. I read a study (admittedly it was a few years old) that claimed there were ~1M ER admissions for psychotic episodes per year in the US. Additional episodes may occur in different settings but the numbers are hardly overwhelming.
Selling An FDA Approval: Recent Results [View article]
Selling An FDA Approval: Recent Results [View article]
Selling An FDA Approval: Recent Results [View article]
Selling An FDA Approval: Recent Results [View article]
Potentially Good Entry Point For Protalix Bio Therapeutics [View article]
Aria And Talon: Is An Advisory Panel Meeting A Profitable Trading Catalyst? [View article]
Why Pfizer Is One Of The Best Defensive Plays On The Market Today [View article]
In the past 12 years it has consistently underperformed the market - and this was a period during which it was marketing the most successful drug in history (Lipitor) as well as the most recognised drug in history (Viagra).
It has a bloated, underachieving R&D department and seems to be completely misguided in its corporate development efforts - rebuilding a consumer health business now having sold its previous business to JNJ at a bargain price.
Revenue growth is almost impossible to achieve since the existing revenue is so large that there is nothing out there that can move the needle and make up for the Lipitor shortfall.
You can certainly invest in it for the dividend, but there are better options. Also, how is it paying the dividend? It has a ton of cash, but most of it is trapped overseas and PFE won't repatriate it because it thinks itself above paying tax.
Should You 'Sell The News' In Biotech Stocks? [View article]