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  • Should You 'Sell The News' In Biotech Stocks? [View article]
    Thanks for the feedback.
    Mar 16, 2012. 08:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You 'Sell The News' In Biotech Stocks? [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I have some data on run-ups which I may try to pull together. Based on my data, they are less predictive of the post approval move than one might think. Looking at 100 day run-ups prior to approval the stock that made the largest 1-day down move had a relatively modest run up while the stock with the largest run up had one of the smaller collapses.
    Mar 13, 2012. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You 'Sell The News' In Biotech Stocks? [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I agree that this is not a revelatory approach - however I had never seen any objective analysis in its support. I was surprised by the consistency of the downward move following an approval over the last 15 months.
    Mar 13, 2012. 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aria And Talon: Is An Advisory Panel Meeting A Profitable Trading Catalyst? [View article]
    I would guess that the market is still concerned about the safety data that caused the initial drop ahead of the Ad Comm meeting. Thus the price has not appreciated despite the positive panel vote. I think this is a risky one and I personally would not hold through the PDUFA date.
    Mar 5, 2012. 03:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Aria And Talon: Is An Advisory Panel Meeting A Profitable Trading Catalyst? [View article]
    Sorry for the ambiguity. Yes, this is purely back tested. As I mentioned, I am not suggesting or promoting this as any sort of strategy as it stands. I was merely looking for evidence that these events could be traded profitably. Also, as mentioned, I only used the closing prices. I agree that intra-day swings would definitely change the picture.
    Mar 5, 2012. 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aria And Talon: Is An Advisory Panel Meeting A Profitable Trading Catalyst? [View article]
    It's a valid question. I did not want people to interpret the post as a description of some sort of automated strategy. However, the rules were as follows (note these are prices at close not intraday):
    - Go long at close 15 days ahead of the meeting date
    - Initial targets are a 30% gain or a 5% loss
    - If/when position is +5% start trailing stop loss at max gain -2%
    Mar 4, 2012. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aria And Talon: Is An Advisory Panel Meeting A Profitable Trading Catalyst? [View article]
    ASTX has a PDUFA date set for tomorrow so the FDA should be ruling on Dacogen. Unfortunately at their recent Advisory meeting the committee voted 10-3 against approving Dacogen. The FDA will not go against the panel and approve despite a recommendation against it so I think Dacogen will be denied this time around. The company does have cash and a revenue stream so it is potentially attractive. The FDA denial should be mostly priced in so it may not move much to the downside - but I would expect some movement. When it levels off it will be even more attractive.
    Mar 4, 2012. 03:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus, Chelsea Therapeutics: Implications Of FDA Advisory Committee Votes [View article]
    The 2nd half of April will certainly be an exciting time for VVUS - and hopefully a profitable time for long term followers such as yourself.
    Feb 29, 2012. 11:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potentially Good Entry Point For Protalix Bio Therapeutics [View article]
    Thanks for the comment Horowitz.

    I believe some analysts in the past have suggested that in the long run the European market may be more attractive for PLX than the US. I remember reading an opinion that the US would ultimately only make up 25% of PLX's revenue.

    I imagine the reasoning behind this is the power of negotiating with single buyers for an entire country who will be very price conscious.

    That being said, knocking off half the potential market for anything is never good so failing to get an approval from the FDA would definitely dampen my enthusiasm.
    Feb 23, 2012. 11:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weight Loss Drugs: Why Arena's Is Likely To Win Approval Before Vivus's [View article]
    Regarding item 3 in your article, the following excerpt from ARNA's latest 10Q might give one pause...

    "We believe that prolactin studies of both three months and shorter duration will be sufficient to test the hypothesis that lorcaserin causes mammary tumors in rats by increasing prolactin effects on the mammary gland. The FDA has expressed concern that the three-month duration may not be adequate to address issues it identified, which may necessitate longer duration studies"
    Feb 22, 2012. 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trade Of The Day: Cabot Micro ($CCMP) [View instapost]
    Maybe I am missing something but this is how I assume it will work. On the day the dividend is paid the stock price will drop immediately by $15 - so you will gain $15/share in dividend but will lose the same amount in share value. Your $50 strike puts will be adjusted to $35 strike puts. So the only return will be any appreciation in the stock price between your purchasing and the close before the ex-div. date less the cost of the puts.
    Feb 15, 2012. 06:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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26 Comments
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