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  • Amarin: The Bull Argument (Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Vascepa) [View article]
    The crowd is fickle.

    I didn't say I wanted to move to a blue state and marry the man.
    May 1 10:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: The Bull Argument (Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Vascepa) [View article]
    That's a tough question. I'll start with what I consider a fact: Amarin should be trading significantly higher than it is now.

    Here's why: Imagine if Amarin were still simply a developmental biotech, and were created a drug targeting only the 200-500 TG indication. Speculation alone, due to the massive market potential, would have this stock at $10 easily.

    The combination drug is pretty hard for me to value, but that's worth a few dollars.

    MARINE is worth $10 with current sales, and rising.

    Add that all together, and you're looking at a lot more than $7.41/share.

    I don't know what a buyout price would be, if that ever happens. The fact remains that big pharmaceutical companies cannot create an accurate analysis of the risk/reward around an Amarin acquisition until the FDA stops jerking around and makes a decision. In the absence of an FDA decision, Amarin will need to keep growing sales until the revenue generated cannot be ignored.
    May 1 09:27 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: The Bull Argument (Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Vascepa) [View article]
    TincoMonkey, et al,

    This article is not meant to be an assault on all things Adam. I disagree with him on pretty much everything about Amarin, and presented the reasons here. I do not think it is constructive to attack anyone's character. I used to get upset reading the "rat cancer" articles and comments during Arena's ninety day rise from $2 to $12...then I realized that I made money, regardless of what was written. I believe Amarin will be the same story this year.

    I can compliment someone for writing well without suggesting everything they write is 100% correct.

    I'm not in a position to criticize Adam's lack of formal science training. I won't throw stones in a glass house...

    May 1 09:02 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: The Bull Argument (Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Vascepa) [View article]
    That was in reference to my being a former Areniac. I no longer have a position in Arena. I am most definitely long Amarin.
    May 1 07:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: The Bull Argument (Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Vascepa) [View article]
    Allow me to start by saying I sincerely appreciate the compliments on my writing. Although we occasionally disagree (I used to be a card-carrying Areniac; I’m still bullish but have no position), I have found your writing style to be enjoyable, easy to read, and grammatically correct…a rare thing in this era.

    That being said, I’d like to address your counter-arguments one point at a time. First, I believe you are presenting a logical fallacy with regards to the assertion that the FDA could have already granted Amarin NME status for Vascepa. The requirements for NCE vice NME vary only in one main regard: NCE is for an active moiety that has never before been approved in another drug, and NME is for an active moiety that has been previously approved in another drug. This creates a one-or-the-other scenario. In order for the FDA to have already granted NME, they would have had to determine that Vascepa’s active moiety exists in Lovaza (and therefore denied NCE). There is no gray area here; the active moiety either exists in a previously approved drug, or doesn’t. The FDA wouldn’t grant NME and then decide at a later date to upgrade to NCE.

    I have read assertions that they would deny either exclusivity because an existing drug (again, Lovaza) already has approval for the >500 TG indication. I see no precedent for this, and it certainly isn’t contained anywhere in Hatch-Waxman. If I am wrong, please let me know.

    We agree that the ANCHOR indication will receive NME if approved, and that this “new” NME will only cover the ANCHOR indication. That being said, this doesn’t leave MARINE exposed. It just leaves Amarin to rely on their thirteen (and counting) patents, when FDA exclusivity expires.

    The only insight we have into the lack of a partner or suitor, beyond speculation, is what we are told. When Mean Joe Z. says he hasn’t partnered yet because he doesn’t want to, I believe him. When he said that the exclusivity overhang remained the problem in ongoing acquisition talks, I believed him. He said plainly that they will not launch ANCHOR alone, and I believe him on that, as well. (I do not believe everything I am told, but in this scenario, I find no reason not to. He did not delay hiring a sales force because he wanted to waste as much time as possible in getting to market. Any conclusion beyond that relies on speculation.)

    Also, I don’t think big pharmaceutical companies are waiting for ANCHOR to strike a deal. That’s silly, in my opinion. I also think people who assert that the FDA is waiting on ANCHOR for the NCE/NME decision are silly. That’s another story.

    Per the Rx graph, it’s just a snapshot of current script numbers and what the trendline needs to look like for Amarin to generate $100MM in revenue this year. The gray bars are the extrapolated requirements. Actually, this week’s numbers beat the required week-over-week growth, but I don’t have the updated graph. I don’t see know how else to explain it. Either way, the additional API supplier approval just decreased margins by what, 50%? It’s hard to be mad about that.

    Insofar as the supposed backlash against fish-oil derived products, I personally believe that to be untrue. Niacin is not fish-oil, and fish-oil is not niacin. However, I have no solid evidence that this is not occurring. What I can ask in response is this: If omega-3 products are truly on the decline, why did BASF acquire Pronova for a 25% premium, totaling over $800MM dollars (including debt)? I think that BASF, one of the largest chemical companies in the world, does their due diligence, and wouldn’t buy a company that specializes in omega-3 products (Omacor/Lovaza, PRC-4016) if it thought the market space were shrinking.

    REDUCE-IT is a risk. I will concede that point. I also believe that the outcomes will be very positive, but I can’t prove it.

    Thanks again for the kind words (and the lively debate).

    Apr 30 10:34 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petrobras (PBR) said late Friday its Q1 net profit fell 17% Y/Y to 7.69B Brazilian reais ($3.85B) from 9.21B reais in the year-ago quarter. While the results beat analyst estimates, operating costs jumped in almost every major category vs. Q1 2012; profit margins also slipped. Overall production fell 4% Y/Y "owing to natural decline in the fields and a greater number of maintenance stops." [View news story]
    Who would've thought that a state-run industry would operate inefficiently. Still, this is headed north.
    Apr 27 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exact Sciences: A Cancer Diagnostic Play With An Upcoming Catalyst This Month [View article]
    I have to agree with the previous comment. A downside of 20% is ridiculous. For a single-product company with about $100MM in the bank? It's worth about $1.50 without positive DeeP-C results. Just like any orphan-drug biotech. (CLSN, ZIOP, etc.)

    If you have a good reason for a $500MM valuation with zero products and nothing in the pipeline, I'd love to hear it.
    Apr 9 09:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Vringo Traders Overreact To Google's Flip Flop? [View article]
    So, could you explain how RR worth up to $500MM make this company worth only $250MM? I'd love to hear that.
    Jan 4 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Price May Be Increasing For An Amarin Buyout [View article]

    In reference to your earlier comment on NCE and patents mixing...per the CFR surrounding NCE (found here:

    (2) If a drug product that contains a new chemical entity was approved after September 24, 1984, in an application submitted under section 505(b) of the act, no person may submit a 505(b)(2) application or abbreviated new drug application under section 505(j) of the act for a drug product that contains the same active moiety as in the new chemical entity for a period of 5 years from the date of approval of the first approved new drug application, except that the 505(b)(2) application or abbreviated application may be submitted after 4 years if it contains a certification of patent invalidity or noninfringement described in § 314.50(i)(1)(i)(A)(4) or § 314.94(a)(12)(i)(A)(4).

    Patents can be challenged immediately. NCE/NME do not prevent patent challenges, as patents are a separate issue. NCE prevents the acceptance of applications for five years, and NME prevents the approval of applications for three years. Notice the last portion, where an application can be submitted after four years (even if NCE protection exists) if patents are challenged and proven invalid. This is contradictory to your assertion that patents cannot be challenged during NCE protection.

    For the record I'm an AMRN bull, and believe the IP surrounding Vascepa is very strong. I just don't want people to think patents can't be challenged due to NCE.
    Dec 18 01:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Price May Be Increasing For An Amarin Buyout [View article]
    The implication that the board requires another person to settle a matter is false. In the event of a tie, the Chairman gets the tiebreaking vote. You can read all about it in Section 145, in their Articles of Association, found here:
    Dec 12 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Latest On Amarin - How Will The Investment Pay Off? [View article]

    What strong indications are there that the FDA will be informing AMRN about the NCE within the next seven days? I recognize that MKM, et al, say management has spoken to them and mentioned that they believe a decision is imminent. Beyond that, do you have any reason to believe it? Thanks in advance.
    Nov 24 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo And The Mystery Of Sealed Court Document 790 [View article]
    I'm fairly confident that document 790 is just an unredacted version of 789. (The original.)
    Nov 8 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Preview: Orexigen Therapeutics [View article]
    If Orexigen is expecting to complete enrollment in half the initially estimated time, why are they projecting, as of Thursday, August 2nd, 2012, completion of the Light Study in 2017? Per the company: Do you think the cash burn of the ongoing trial will, once it begins, overwhelm their current reserves? If so, wouldn't it make sense to do a secondary offering soon, before the share price returns to it's 200MA?
    Aug 4 05:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment