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  • Lucas Energy Announces Eagle Ford Deal That Has Potential To Turn The Company Around [View article]
    New JV deal announced. $2,220 an acre for "prime" EF acreage! What a deal!

    Time to raise substantially more equity.
    Aug 26, 2014. 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: What Comes Next? Part 3 [View article]
    NII of $0.25/share in the last quarter but they just increased distributions to $0.3318/share per quarter? Excess NII is only $0.09/share.

    How does this work longer term?
    Aug 25, 2014. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rates And Reality [View article]
    How will the US govt deal with higher rates? Lots of relatively short average duration debt to roll over plus lots of new issuance = lots more interest expense
    Aug 20, 2014. 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Properly Treating Costs: Re-Evaluating The MannKind And Sanofi Partnership [View article]

    Current market cap is something around $2.9B. If I understand your position correctly, you believe MNKD will be getting reimbursed all of their development costs? Something like $1-2B?

    It sure seems like the market has spoken on this issue and on the partnership in general. Stock is down over 8% since this article came out and down 30% from the peak after the announcement of the deal with SNY on big volume. Clearly the market is not a fan of this deal. Is it plausible that the market has missed such a big issue? How are all these people missing this including dedicated biotech analysts and fund managers? Missing $1-2B reimbursement on a $2.9B market cap company? Maybe, but seems doubtful especially given the volume and trend of the past week.

    Why aren't longs supporting the price here? Are you loading the truck at these prices? It sure seems like at these prices that Afrezza has to be a blockbuster straight out of the gate to justify this market cap. $1B sales x 50% margin x 35% cut = $175M x 20? P/E = $3.5B market cap. $1B seems unrealistic when Novolog only did $1.3B in 2013. Even if you want to bump up the P/E multiple, you are still talking some serious sales.

    Curious to your thoughts on this. Thanks, BG
    Aug 15, 2014. 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Properly Treating Costs: Re-Evaluating The MannKind And Sanofi Partnership [View article]
    The share price hit 20 at a time when there were a gazillion less shares outstanding...
    Aug 14, 2014. 07:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Sanofi Deal Is The Best Possible Deal For MannKind Investors [View article]
    This is a pretty underwhelming partnership announcement and the market thought so as well with constant selling all day continuing into afterhours. Pre-market sellers were obviously the winners on this sell the news event.

    Market cap is pretty stretched here as well given the deal. How much has to be sold at a 35% interest to justify a $3.3B market cap with significant debt?

    Another thing to note that I'm not sure I have seen mentioned before. Are Type 1 patients even going to be considering to use Afrezza? Don't most of these folks have insulin pumps already? I know the Type 1 market is much smaller than the Type II, but why would a Type 1 use Afrezza if they are already using a pump and would still have to inject basal insulin?
    Aug 11, 2014. 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great News For MannKind The Company; Underwhelming News For MannKind Stock [View article]
    SNY has almost $6B in cash on their balance sheet. $150M is chump change.
    Aug 11, 2014. 07:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sanofi, MannKind reach licensing agreement for Afrezza insulin [View news story]
    Partnership is excellent for MNKD but the terms of the deal seem pretty bad. Only 1/3 of the profits AND losses for supposedly such a revolutionary product? Seems like another sell the news event when the hype is gone.
    Aug 11, 2014. 07:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will MannKind Partner Or Go It Alone? [View article]
    It is starting to smell like AMRN. Not all the way there yet, but should know more in a few weeks I would think.
    Aug 6, 2014. 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will MannKind Partner Or Go It Alone? [View article]
    Why are they entering into this agreement now? Seems premature. Don't they have a gazillion doses of insulin in storage that they acquired from Pfizer? Or will AMPH be using the insulin MNKD already has?
    Aug 6, 2014. 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lucas Energy Announces Eagle Ford Deal That Has Potential To Turn The Company Around [View article]
    That's a possibility on the JV, but not even a single word about it after it was their saving grace? Kinda weird, but I can see your point. They've got to be in NYSE compliance by July 31st. So maybe something by then?

    The JOA explanation makes it look like management just figured out that if MRO goes non-consent they will be on the hook for 100% of well costs. "Lucas Energy believes it has crafted a solution to address this issue and is now more confident in its ability to proceed." We did the JV in 2010, but we just figured out how to do this. It's not confidence inspiring for me.

    I want management to think outside of the box. Propose a well to MRO and then go raise some money based on what MRO says. Why is that hard? Why did that take years to figure out? With all of the money out there and the economics of Eagleford, I think that you could easily find someone to carry LEI for 15-20% on a well if MRO non-consented, assuming their acreage is what they claim it to be. Even if they only carried a 15% interest, LEI would still be at their same WI they would have been with MRO with no cash output. It's a win win for both parties. LEI gets a free well at perhaps a higher WI than they would have had with MRO and the partner gets into one or more EF wells without upfront land costs.

    They did put that money into the ground sir. You should be honest and read the 10K. Their $22MM debt to Nordic was already settled. It does not show on the March 31, 2013 balance sheet. Besides, returning assets when you default on secured debt is not exactly a huge accomplishment. Most of the 9MM of investor money went into the ground, including $5.4MM in capex and $2.2MM in LOE. For that, investors lost production. Strangely their graph touting their production increases over the quarters has disappeared. Let's be honest. These guys suck at operating oil wells.

    They have been actively pursuing alternatives since December. I know for sure they used the "actively pursuing" language in February. Guess time will tell. It shouldn't take seven months especially with the size of the company and it being Eagleford. I know of multi billion dollar deals that didn't take this long. They only have a few more months before the loan shark shows up again. I guess time will tell.
    Jul 2, 2014. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lucas Energy Announces Eagle Ford Deal That Has Potential To Turn The Company Around [View article]
    Thoughts on the 10K:

    Not a single word in the 10-K about the Eagleford JV deal? What happened? Surely this is the most important thing they have. I don't think this was ever closed either, it was just a letter of intent. Something fall through? Remember they wanted to drill the well by end of calendar Q2...

    Tony's letter to shareholders is hilarious. They are acting like they are the only people who have non-consent clauses in their JOAs. "We just figured out how to do this" Really? Propose the well, see what MRO does, and try to raise some money. Excuses excuses.

    I continue to be amazed at how these guys can't make money. They burned $450,000 from operating oil wells this quarter. Production has tanked to a March 31st exit rate of 132 BPD despite burning through $9.1 million from their debt and equity offerings. Not to mention over the fiscal year, a 12% dilution for the shareholders. Simply astonishing.

    On a quarterly basis, they went into this last quarter producing 150 BPD, spent $500,000 on capex (net, includes the money for selling their drilling unit interest), spent another $250,000 on workovers, and managed to exit with 132 BPD.

    At this rate they better hurry up and do something. That $1.88 million they got from Ironman is going to disappear in a hurry. Their loan modifications will hit in October as well. The clock is ticking. They've been "exploring options" since the beginning of the year. Time to act.
    Jun 28, 2014. 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Manipulation: What Investors Should Do Now [View article]
    Can I ask why central banks hold gold in reserve if it is irrelevant?
    Jun 6, 2014. 02:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Maybe I'm Wrong - Justifying $2,000+ Gold [View article]
    Likely just trying to generate some views as he knows this is a highly debated topic that will generate many clicks for himself. His disclosure and opinions on miners are completely opposite of his opinion. Why would you be long at 1240 and have a view it is going to 800? Why would you recommend miners if gold is going to be crushed by a third?
    Jun 2, 2014. 09:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lucas Energy Announces Eagle Ford Deal That Has Potential To Turn The Company Around [View article]
    "The only way for LEI to raise cash is through deals like this or an equity raise. I can't help but think that the NYSE (an equity exchange) is going to require a significant equity raise?"

    Offering is 11% of current shares out at over 10% below current market price with warrants that are fairly far out of the money.
    Apr 16, 2014. 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment