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  • FDA Votes 'No': Is This The End Of Amarin? [View article]
    AMRN management seems shell shocked. This conference call is quite the downer. Seems like they haven't even remotely considered a plan B. Even talked about workforce reductions?? They hardly have any sales reps as is!

    This can't be a confidence booster for anyone.
    Oct 16 07:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA Votes 'No': Is This The End Of Amarin? [View article]
    Plus Vascepa is already approved. If the Anchor population needs Vascepa, they can get it. Before expanding, it seems prudent to figure out if it even helps.
    Oct 16 06:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA Votes 'No': Is This The End Of Amarin? [View article]
    If you are talking about the big volume in the 12 calls yesterday, that was likely closing an existing position while it still had any value. Buyout above 12 within 2 days after the FDA panel has rejected label expansion?
    Oct 16 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA Votes 'No': Is This The End Of Amarin? [View article]
    MARINE = Vascepa only

    ANCHOR = Vascepa + Statins
    Oct 16 05:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA Votes 'No': Is This The End Of Amarin? [View article]
    $100 Million in sales in 2014? They sold $5.5 million in Q2. You think they can increase that by almost 5x?
    Oct 16 05:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA Votes 'No': Is This The End Of Amarin? [View article]
    I've been thinking about this for awhile. I think owning the shares clouded my mind a bit. They have 275 reps going up against GSK backed, well established Lovaza. Are the differentiations REALLY enough to get these doctors to switch? These doctors have established relationships with the GSK reps and likely prescribe other GSK drugs from these same salesmen. How is AMRN going to make enough of a dent to matter? Especially with generic Lovaza coming on soon? How will they sway enough doctor opinions?
    Oct 16 05:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA Votes 'No': Is This The End Of Amarin? [View article]
    There was simply too much risk being long into this panel decision IMO.The briefing documents essentially implied the FDA had been leaning towards denial of ANCHOR until REDUCE-IT results since ANCHOR is co-therapy with statins. There was no need to approve ANCHOR without knowing if it actually reduces CV events. If a person in the ANCHOR population needs Vascepa, they can get it off label.

    I thought call sellers would do well here because an approval by panel seemed like one of those events where retail thinks it is extremely significant and expects a huge pop, however that seems to never happen in these cases. An approval likely would have seen the stock only up marginally. While a denial, is almost catastrophic for AMRN. The risk reward was shifted way too much to risk.

    Joe Z has done investors in AMRN a great disservice. First he sold a bunch of stock right after approval. Then he led investors on a "WAIT FOR THE NEXT 90 DAYS THEY WILL BE EXCITING" goose chase. Third, he decided to go it alone with 275 reps in a country of 300 million people trying to market a drug that honestly is not all that different from the established Lovaza, marketed by the huge GSK. I also think AMRN and AMRN bulls have also overinflated the potential of the ANCHOR market. If these people need Rx fish oil, they are already likely taking Lovaza off label. Lovaza's current market probably represents MARINE + ANCHOR.

    I have criticized QTR before, but like he said in previous articles. Volume speaks wonders. Volume on Friday is what caused me to sell out of my remaining long positions. Scared investors don't dump 40 million shares. Knowledgeable ones do.
    Oct 16 04:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 3 Most Likely FDA Outcomes For Amarin's Vascepa [View article]
    AMRN's problem with sales is they hired only 275 reps to launch. 275 reps for 50 states is nothing. And definitely not near enough to change doctor's minds from Lovaza when Vascepa really isn't a whole lot better. Joe Z got too greedy and should have at least partnered the launch. Glad I sold all mine Friday when the briefing docs came out, but wishing I had sold when they announced go it alone.
    Oct 16 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 3 Most Likely FDA Outcomes For Amarin's Vascepa [View article]
    Reduce-It Results are due end of 2016-2017
    Oct 16 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Too Many Questions Remain To Buy Hugoton Royalty Trust [View article]
    Nah not me. Though its getting closer to where I would consider going long.
    Oct 16 11:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Corp.: The Mineral Oil Placebo Should Not Concern Investors [View article]
    I think the bigger issue here is that, is the panel going to want to wait for reduce it results before anchor is approved since anchor is co-therapy with statins
    Oct 15 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peter Schiff's Euro Pacific Capital Thinks Lucas Energy Is Worth $3 Per Share [View article]
    We've been over this before in other articles. You keep implying that I have economic interest in writing these articles. Well I don't. I nor anyone I personally know have ever traded anything to do with LEI. I know it's tough for you to comprehend, but I write on LEI solely because a buddy sent me a link to your first article which was omitting some of the most important information about it. I dug deeper (past the EOG slides) and found much more info than you have presented. Someone should present the numbers and facts, rather than hope and dreams and EOG slides.

    On a side note, it seems like you are now switching to talking about Austin Chalk and Buda wells. If you remember, one of my more recent articles stated that I thought LEI should raise more equity than necessary under the terms of the loan and go drill some Austin Chalk laterals. Perhaps you and LEI have finally realized that the Hagen EFS acreage isn't going to be drilled anytime soon.
    Oct 15 09:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Too Many Questions Remain To Buy Hugoton Royalty Trust [View article]
    Discount rate?
    Oct 14 10:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 3 Most Likely FDA Outcomes For Amarin's Vascepa [View article]
    ANCHOR is a trial for co-therapy with statins. Don't think Lovaza was. Apples to Oranges there IMO.

    As a former long who thinks there is way too much risk in this, I think this ends up being one where a positive decision by the committee only bumps the stock a little bit and a negative decision will see the stock absolutely crushed. If the committee says they want to wait for REDUCE-IT results, the stock will probably go into the 3s and be dead money for years. The big pop not happening on the positive side is because it is still dependent on FDA approval in Dec which is why I think the reaction on positive news will be muted. The risk reward is swayed heavily to risk. Never underestimate the sway of big pharma either. Think about it. It's been almost a year and a half since approval and no NCE status yet?

    Plus Lovaza is likely being prescribed off label right now. That is probably a large chunk of it's sales. GSK is not going to let go of that easily, especially with generics coming out. I think a lot of folks have taken Lovaza sales and assumed that all of the sales are for on label use (aka MARINE population) and that is probably not true.

    Option sellers (calls specifically) are likely to do well here IMO.

    Overall, there has been too much mismanagement by AMRN execs. Vascepa should have been partnered from the approval date. They didn't need to sell the company, but not even a partnership? AMRN has what? 275 reps? For 50 states? No wonder Vascepa sales are relatively anemic. Stock offering with the stock at its lows? Selling stock right after approval regardless if the sales were preplanned?
    Oct 14 08:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peter Schiff's Euro Pacific Capital Thinks Lucas Energy Is Worth $3 Per Share [View article]
    That's because as of the last 10Q this company still can't generate positive cash from operations. This upcoming quarter looks like they might do it but only thanks to triple digit oil prices. Look at any of the author's articles about LEI. No numbers regarding Lucas, just dreams and hope about EOG.
    Oct 14 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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