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  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II: Don't Get Caught When The Music Stops [View article]
    Never have been a believer in the Miss based off of numbers SD has publicly put out. Project economics look marginal at best.

    Average oil EUR on all wells in the Miss is around 92 MBO or so. They make some decent gas (880 MMCF EUR), but if you convert that on revenue basis instead of an energy basis, you end up around 135 MBOE average. That's pretty marginal given the well costs and infrastructure required. On an energy basis it is around 240 MBOE.

    How many shares does SD own? When are they able to sell? IIRC, they sold a bunch of shares in PER last year. Them selling might put some downward pressure on this.

    One thing I have noticed is that these is that, in general, they only seem to die right after the distribution date. It's like folks want to hold on and get that last distribution before they sell but the stock ends up falling much more than the distribution. I don't understand the logic, but that seems like what they do.
    Feb 14, 2014. 02:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lucas Energy Appears To Be Turning The Corner, But Remain Cautious [View article]
    Total and absolute disaster quarter for Lucas.
    Feb 14, 2014. 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lucas Energy Appears To Be Turning The Corner, But Remain Cautious [View article]
    Update to my position:

    Sold my LEI at $1.11 as it seemed like this recent pop was too much too fast on just the Ironman filing? Will keep watching and see if it breaks under $1 again.
    Jan 28, 2014. 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil To Natural Gas Ratio Drops [View article]
    Excellent article. Would read again. A+
    Jan 27, 2014. 02:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Lorain, An Undervalued Opportunity [View article]
    Anytime I see Chinese company and these non-binding go private offers, I automatically think Chinese fraud. Why is this not the case here?
    Jan 27, 2014. 10:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA To Amarin: 'I Said Good Day, Sir!' [View article]
    Sometimes you have good stuff, but this is just one of those clear cases where it's obvious you are just writing on a popular stock looking for views. Most of your AMRN articles, especially lately, fall into this category.
    Jan 21, 2014. 11:06 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA division won't reinstate SPA for Amarin's Vascepa [View news story]
    I think bulls are still a little blind on AMRN and ANCHOR. They commonly state how large the market is while referencing Lovaza's $1B in sales under what is the MARINE indication. They fail to consider that Lovaza is extensively prescribed off label to patients in the ANCHOR indication. Thus, the total market is probably $1B. Let's be honest, Vascepa is not THAT much different than Lovaza. As seen in sales, AMRN is going to have an extremely difficult time battling generic Lovaza plus the salesforce of GSK. I don't see them gaining meaningful market share.
    Jan 21, 2014. 08:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why MannKind Is My 2014 Short Pick In Healthcare [View article]
    The only good point he makes is a black swan at ADCOM. That's just pure speculation really.

    All of the trials have met their endpoints. MNKD did the bridge trial to show efficacy of the dreamboat compared to the previous inhaler. FDA has never brought up any safety issues regarding Afrezza. What is left for them to do?
    Jan 17, 2014. 02:21 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why MannKind Is My 2014 Short Pick In Healthcare [View article]

    A four year old can easily use the Dreamboat inhaler. The comment about users not using the inhaler correctly was in regards to taking the insulin too early before a meal. Obviously with a faster acting insulin, you don't need to take the insulin as soon.

    The 171 trial was to prove non-inferiority in A1c reduction. The trial met the endpoints.

    Mean weight loss on afrezza was 0.39 kg while mean weight gain on standard insulin was 0.93 kg...

    You were right on SRPT but I think you are dead wrong here.
    Jan 17, 2014. 02:14 PM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy: Disappointing Asset Sale Reinforces Valuation Concerns [View article]
    I have never been a believer in this play. Total project economics have to be very, very marginal. Many, many disposal wells needed, electrical infrastructure, water infrastructure, ESP install costs, ESP op costs, ESP pull costs, etc, etc. Individual well economics are obviously better, but ultimately, total project economics is all that matters and they can't be that great.
    Jan 10, 2014. 12:08 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why 2014 Can Turn The Tide For Annaly [View article]
    Article Summary: Tax selling is over so buy NLY.

    How does this get published?
    Jan 6, 2014. 05:26 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter continues selloff, shares -4.7% premarket [View news story]
    I'm not a TWTR defender and personally think it is way overvalued, but do you really equate a bubble burst to the price going back to what it was 5 days ago?
    Dec 30, 2013. 06:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lucas Energy Appears To Be Turning The Corner, But Remain Cautious [View article]
    G&A is still extremely high. It needs to come down much more, however production increases can mask that given the price of oil. Cutting LOE should have been a rather quick process. Still seems high. Most wells are likely rod pumped. How much LOE can you have on those?

    Production increases are never a certainty, even on "low risk" projects. Given the situation LEI was/is in, if they stumbled on these projects, they were either toast or back to the equity markets. Investing before knowing any results of those operations was foolish IMO.

    I never said they need to comment on JVs. I said they need to update investors on the status of the Hagen EFS lease. They mention it in their presentation:

    "Evaluating drilling opportunities and strategic relationship with majority partner on our Eagle Ford Shale acreage."

    What does that mean? Does it mean it will be drilled next month? 2014? 2020? More detail should be requested from investors on such an important asset for the company and highly unlikely MRO would be upset over that. Why would they be? The acreage is already HBP, Lucas is party to the talks as a WI owner and it is rather material for investors to know. I could understand not talking about a pending sale of the acreage to MRO, but just drilling wells on acreage that Lucas has WI on? Come on now.

    Like I said in my other article, it is hard to tell how much Daraie as chairman will change things since he was already on the board. Hopefully he will have much more influence as chair. I mostly agree with your comments about the other two.

    LEI appears to be headed in the right direction, but can certainly still stumble. Look at the exit rate from June vs the avg production for July-Sept quarter. They have to prove they can sustain this production and continue to grow it.
    Dec 18, 2013. 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's A Mistake To Hold Cash In This Market [View article]
    I know you are talking about high quality businesses, but in a downturn does that really matter? So goes the market, goes just about every stock. Even if your business is stout, everything ends up getting taken down due to the interconnectivity of the markets, margin calls, etc. How did the stocks listed above fare in 2008? Likely all were crushed with the overall market.

    Questions for you:

    Why did the market drop when Ben Bernanke simply hinted at tapering QE earlier this year?

    Why do we even need QE if the economy/market is so strong?

    Large portions of investor returns have been brought by share buybacks. How many of these would have been possible without ZIRP?

    Do you think investors are reaching for yield because of ZIRP?

    Please understand these are honest questions and I am not trying to be a smarty pants. We obviously have differing opinions and I'd like to hear what you have to say.
    Dec 12, 2013. 02:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's A Mistake To Hold Cash In This Market [View article]
    I'd rather sell the top and miss out on a few small dividend payments vs hanging on and taking capital losses, realized or not.

    Take a 20% market decline for example. Not unheard of at all. On a 3% dividend payer, that's over seven years to payout. I would gladly take a bet that the market will have a rather large correction sometime in the next seven years.
    Dec 12, 2013. 11:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment