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  • Medley Capital: An Attractive Hedge For BDC Portfolios [View article]
    All that and they still manage to more than cover the div with NII. Plus they just raised some $70M still needing to be deployed.

    Seems like a pretty bad stock to short given the "downside" you mention plus having to cover the div. ~12% downside with a 12% div. Better hope that move happens as soon as you short. I'm guessing that's why you have "no position"?

    Thanks for the chance to get in lower.
    Sep 16 09:48 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Elephants Fight, Ants Perish - Exxon Mobil, Seadrill And EU/USA Sanctions [View article]
    The US still imports 9 million barrels a day... That's roughly half of our consumption. Hardly energy independent.
    Sep 15 02:20 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Fund May Be Your Best Call For Preferred Shares [View article]
    The players don't want rates to rise. The whole thing falls apart if rates go up.
    Aug 30 09:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lucas Energy Inks Eagleford Deal But Still Lacks Funds To Drill [View article]
    Most of their acreage is Austin Chalk. They've already drilled a few dud horizontals, so that acreage doesn't seem to be worth much anymore. They really messed that up going out on their own to drill. Should have tried to JV that to be able to drill more wells to spread the risk. Perhaps they did and no one bit, but too greedy IMO. They bet the farm and lost. That was a pretty big turning point in LEI's history. They spent an ungodly amount of money on those wells and their production still went down!

    Almost all of their Eagleford acreage is 15% WI with MRO. That's a pretty hard sell to someone IMO. Plus they just sold 200 acres of EF acreage for $2200 an acre. It's actually hilarious. All of their slides tout 5 or 6 figure NPV values for EF acreage and they go out and sell some for $2200 an acre. Clearly this was the best deal they could find. They are desperate. They had to do something. Why would you accept $2200 an acre when you are touting that NPV is many many times that? What makes you believe that they would get anywhere near NPV10 of the other acreage?

    If that value was there anyways, why isn't the market price reflecting it? Market cap is only $20M. If that value was there, why wouldn't they sell their $80M NPV properties to someone for say $60M and send the stock to the moon? That would be a huge windfall for shareholders, except that paper value != real world value. Something is not right and it's likely the valuation of the acreage.
    Aug 29 02:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury yields continue unexpected 2014 slide [View news story]
    Rates will never go back up without some sort of reset. Everything is dependent on ZIRP. Without ZIRP, everything blows sky high.

    Folks don't lock their money up for 10 years at 2.3% without good reason.
    Aug 28 02:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short High-Yield Municipal Index ETF, An Undiscovered Value [View article]
    I don't see how rates can go up especially as Treasury rates continue their decline. European bonds continue their decline as well. The Fed can jawbone all they want about raising rates, but everything blows up if rates increase. Pension funds, hedge funds, US govt budget, etc. The amounts of short term debt the US issues (new & roll) is staggering and will rapidly raise interest expense to unsustainable levels.
    Aug 28 01:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lucas Energy Announces Eagle Ford Deal That Has Potential To Turn The Company Around [View article]
    New JV deal announced. $2,220 an acre for "prime" EF acreage! What a deal!

    Time to raise substantially more equity.
    Aug 26 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: What Comes Next? Part 3 [View article]
    NII of $0.25/share in the last quarter but they just increased distributions to $0.3318/share per quarter? Excess NII is only $0.09/share.

    How does this work longer term?
    Aug 25 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rates And Reality [View article]
    How will the US govt deal with higher rates? Lots of relatively short average duration debt to roll over plus lots of new issuance = lots more interest expense
    Aug 20 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Properly Treating Costs: Re-Evaluating The MannKind And Sanofi Partnership [View article]
    Jeff,

    Current market cap is something around $2.9B. If I understand your position correctly, you believe MNKD will be getting reimbursed all of their development costs? Something like $1-2B?

    It sure seems like the market has spoken on this issue and on the partnership in general. Stock is down over 8% since this article came out and down 30% from the peak after the announcement of the deal with SNY on big volume. Clearly the market is not a fan of this deal. Is it plausible that the market has missed such a big issue? How are all these people missing this including dedicated biotech analysts and fund managers? Missing $1-2B reimbursement on a $2.9B market cap company? Maybe, but seems doubtful especially given the volume and trend of the past week.

    Why aren't longs supporting the price here? Are you loading the truck at these prices? It sure seems like at these prices that Afrezza has to be a blockbuster straight out of the gate to justify this market cap. $1B sales x 50% margin x 35% cut = $175M x 20? P/E = $3.5B market cap. $1B seems unrealistic when Novolog only did $1.3B in 2013. Even if you want to bump up the P/E multiple, you are still talking some serious sales.

    Curious to your thoughts on this. Thanks, BG
    Aug 15 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Properly Treating Costs: Re-Evaluating The MannKind And Sanofi Partnership [View article]
    The share price hit 20 at a time when there were a gazillion less shares outstanding...
    Aug 14 07:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Sanofi Deal Is The Best Possible Deal For MannKind Investors [View article]
    This is a pretty underwhelming partnership announcement and the market thought so as well with constant selling all day continuing into afterhours. Pre-market sellers were obviously the winners on this sell the news event.

    Market cap is pretty stretched here as well given the deal. How much has to be sold at a 35% interest to justify a $3.3B market cap with significant debt?

    Another thing to note that I'm not sure I have seen mentioned before. Are Type 1 patients even going to be considering to use Afrezza? Don't most of these folks have insulin pumps already? I know the Type 1 market is much smaller than the Type II, but why would a Type 1 use Afrezza if they are already using a pump and would still have to inject basal insulin?
    Aug 11 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great News For MannKind The Company; Underwhelming News For MannKind Stock [View article]
    SNY has almost $6B in cash on their balance sheet. $150M is chump change.
    Aug 11 07:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sanofi, MannKind reach licensing agreement for Afrezza insulin [View news story]
    Partnership is excellent for MNKD but the terms of the deal seem pretty bad. Only 1/3 of the profits AND losses for supposedly such a revolutionary product? Seems like another sell the news event when the hype is gone.
    Aug 11 07:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will MannKind Partner Or Go It Alone? [View article]
    It is starting to smell like AMRN. Not all the way there yet, but should know more in a few weeks I would think.
    Aug 6 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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