Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Black Gold  

View Black Gold's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Oil pares losses after EIA supply data [View news story]
    Insane that oil is going up on these build numbers.
    Feb 19, 2015. 11:36 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How SolarCity Sees The Future Playing Out And The S Curve [View article]
    My analysis didn't consider any of those. Sun exposure obviously varies across the country. Adding panel decay, positioning, dust, etc make the numbers look worse.

    How much did that 16KW array cost? It's nice to have no electric bill, but how much did they spend to get there? Is it a smart investment? I want to love solar because I think it is great to harness that free energy from the sun, but it has a LONG way to go for it to make sense for the average American homeowner even with tax credits. Convince me? I can be convinced with facts. How does it make sense for me or the average American?
    Feb 19, 2015. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How SolarCity Sees The Future Playing Out And The S Curve [View article]
    Solarcity's costs are $2.86/W. $2.09 of that is for install. Not sure what the consumer's cost is. Surely more. Solarcity thinks they can only get the cost down to $2.50/W by 2017.

    Some basic economics using the cost/watt for the company not consumer:

    Average electric cost in the US is around $0.10-0.12/kWh. Average home uses 900 kWh/mo.

    Assume 5 sunlight hours a day. 6 kW of capacity. 30 kWh/day = 900 kWh/mo

    900 kWh/mo * $0.12/kWh = $108/mo electric bill

    $2.86/W * 6000 W capacity = $17160

    $17160 / $108 = 159 month payout without subsidies

    $17160 * 0.7 / $108 = 111 month payout with a 30% federal subsidy

    None of the above even accounts for inefficiencies in the system, cloudy days, suboptimal positioning, dust on the panels, etc. I have seen efficiency numbers anywhere from 66-80%. It also doesn't consider that the panels will lose output over their life. How about hail on the panels? Insurance costs?

    Solar doesn't seem that great unless you are paying 2 or 3 times the average US rate for power or your state/power company has additional large subsides.
    Feb 18, 2015. 07:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity misses by $0.20, revenue in-line [View news story]
    Average electric cost in the US is around $0.10-0.12/kWh. Average home uses 900 kWh/mo.

    Assume 5 sunlight hours a day. 6 kW of capacity. 30 kWh/day = 900 kWh/mo

    900 kWh/mo * $0.12/kWh = $108/mo electric bill

    $2.86/W * 6000 W capacity = $17160

    $17160 / $108 = 159 month payout without subsidies

    $17160 * 0.7 / $108 = 111 month payout with a 30% federal subsidy

    None of the above even accounts for inefficiencies in the system, cloudy days, suboptimal positioning, dust on the panels, etc. I have seen efficiency numbers anywhere from 66-80%. It also doesn't consider that the panels will lose output over their life. How about hail on the panels? Insurance costs?

    Solar doesn't seem that great unless you are paying 2 or 3 times the average US rate for power or your state/power company has additional large subsides.

    EDIT: That $2.86/W looks like it is the cost to the company not the consumer LOL.
    Feb 18, 2015. 07:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity misses by $0.20, revenue in-line [View news story]
    30% drop in price of panels by end of 2016?
    Feb 18, 2015. 06:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity misses by $0.20, revenue in-line [View news story]
    Solar will be an amazing short at the end of 2016 if/when the 30% federal tax credit expires. Solar only borderline makes sense with the credit if you are paying out the wazoo for electricity. Even with the tax credit and normal $0.09-0.11 kWh rates, solar is going to take 11+ years to breakeven when you assume standard derates for dust, losses, etc.
    Feb 18, 2015. 05:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC minutes: June rate hike not a slam dunk yet [View news story]
    And what exactly are the conditions that will push the Fed to hike?
    Feb 18, 2015. 02:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC minutes: June rate hike not a slam dunk yet [View news story]
    Why would they need to raise? Inflation is underperforming their target. They clearly want a weak dollar. Why would they want to send the dollar even higher?
    Feb 18, 2015. 02:31 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC minutes: June rate hike not a slam dunk yet [View news story]
    No meaningful rate hikes ever.
    Feb 18, 2015. 02:28 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Implied Forward T-Bill Rates Show A Rise To 2.72% In 2021, Up 0.13% From Last Week [View article]
    How will the US govt issue 7-8T of debt every year (and increasing every year) with one month rates at 2.72%? I guess the Fed will buy it all and remit all interest back to the govt? Big giant circle jerk.
    Feb 17, 2015. 10:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Read This Before Shorting Anything! [View article]
    You forgot one risk of shorting stocks: The Fed.
    Feb 11, 2015. 11:42 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Eagle Ford Oil Company Trading For Less Than 1/3 Of Its Proved Reserve Value [View article]
    Thanks. Things NEVER made sense with this company. The only chance they ever had was the Eagleford deal with a drilling carry, but that fell through.

    There were red flags when I first looked at this company and more emerged along the road down to $0.08/share. No company with such good assets should be borrowing secured money from their directors on a six month term for 14% in a ZIRP environment! Losing money producing oil wells at $100 oil was another tell. I mean LOE+G&A was $95/bbl. How ridiculous is that?

    The list goes on and on: declining production, refinancing the director's loan with another loan shark loan, emergency $250k capital infusion by Meson, trying to strong arm the preferred stock holder, resignation of CFO, having to restructure the loan shark loan, Chairman Ken (a petroleum engineer) jumping ship, etc, etc. Probably more that I can't even remember.

    Management made some serious errors here. They should have got serious about cutting the fat. In January 2015 they have claimed to reduced G&A by $2MM/yr. Nothing has really changed with LEI's operations since I first started talking about this company. In fact, operationally it has gotten smaller. Why did they wait two years?

    It really seems like management really only got serious with approaching MRO about drilling wells this past June. Tony sent out his letter to shareholders with excuses on uncertainty in how much capital they required to drill. Complete lack of creativity and willingness to get a deal done, IMO.

    They also put all their eggs in the Austin Chalk horizontals and lost big time. Wayyyy too greedy. Carbonate horizontals are pretty unpredictable (IMO) and I preferred to see them try to sell down half of their acreage in a JV to spread geological risk and reduce capital output.

    Even after two years of poor choices, they are still making them. Schnur somehow though (and still thinks) that they would be able to raise $8MM to drill two Eagleford wells. Either he is a very poor negotiator or no one wanted to give LEI a drilling carry. A drilling carry was essential for LEI to survive. Further more, Schnur has even used some of the capital from their Madison County sale to buy some EF acreage back from MRO, but the company has no money to drill! Why spend precious capital on MORE acreage you can't drill?

    The bottom line is that if this thing was so undervalued, a larger operator would have purchased them for an amount that essentially amounts to a rounding error on their balance sheet or the wealthy insiders who owned 25% (I think thats the number?) would have taken them private to reap the "massive" rewards for themselves.
    Feb 3, 2015. 09:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lucas Energy defaults on debt [View news story]
    Don't worry these guys can't make money at $100./oil let alone $50 oil.
    Feb 3, 2015. 09:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lucas Energy Inks Eagleford Deal But Still Lacks Funds To Drill [View article]
    And there is the loan default with a PR that comes out end of day Friday http://bit.ly/1LvjNiw

    Tigersfirstwhore are you still long? :)
    Jan 31, 2015. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-term Treasury yields lower after soft GDP print [View news story]
    10 year bund at 0.30%. 10 Year T at 1.67%. 10 year T much lower to go.
    Jan 30, 2015. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
700 Comments
1,129 Likes