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  • American Lorain, An Undervalued Opportunity [View article]
    Anytime I see Chinese company and these non-binding go private offers, I automatically think Chinese fraud. Why is this not the case here?
    Jan 27 10:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA To Amarin: 'I Said Good Day, Sir!' [View article]
    Sometimes you have good stuff, but this is just one of those clear cases where it's obvious you are just writing on a popular stock looking for views. Most of your AMRN articles, especially lately, fall into this category.
    Jan 21 11:06 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA division won't reinstate SPA for Amarin's Vascepa [View news story]
    I think bulls are still a little blind on AMRN and ANCHOR. They commonly state how large the market is while referencing Lovaza's $1B in sales under what is the MARINE indication. They fail to consider that Lovaza is extensively prescribed off label to patients in the ANCHOR indication. Thus, the total market is probably $1B. Let's be honest, Vascepa is not THAT much different than Lovaza. As seen in sales, AMRN is going to have an extremely difficult time battling generic Lovaza plus the salesforce of GSK. I don't see them gaining meaningful market share.
    Jan 21 08:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why MannKind Is My 2014 Short Pick In Healthcare [View article]
    The only good point he makes is a black swan at ADCOM. That's just pure speculation really.

    All of the trials have met their endpoints. MNKD did the bridge trial to show efficacy of the dreamboat compared to the previous inhaler. FDA has never brought up any safety issues regarding Afrezza. What is left for them to do?
    Jan 17 02:21 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why MannKind Is My 2014 Short Pick In Healthcare [View article]

    A four year old can easily use the Dreamboat inhaler. The comment about users not using the inhaler correctly was in regards to taking the insulin too early before a meal. Obviously with a faster acting insulin, you don't need to take the insulin as soon.

    The 171 trial was to prove non-inferiority in A1c reduction. The trial met the endpoints.

    Mean weight loss on afrezza was 0.39 kg while mean weight gain on standard insulin was 0.93 kg...

    You were right on SRPT but I think you are dead wrong here.
    Jan 17 02:14 PM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy: Disappointing Asset Sale Reinforces Valuation Concerns [View article]
    I have never been a believer in this play. Total project economics have to be very, very marginal. Many, many disposal wells needed, electrical infrastructure, water infrastructure, ESP install costs, ESP op costs, ESP pull costs, etc, etc. Individual well economics are obviously better, but ultimately, total project economics is all that matters and they can't be that great.
    Jan 10 12:08 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why 2014 Can Turn The Tide For Annaly [View article]
    Article Summary: Tax selling is over so buy NLY.

    How does this get published?
    Jan 6 05:26 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter continues selloff, shares -4.7% premarket [View news story]
    I'm not a TWTR defender and personally think it is way overvalued, but do you really equate a bubble burst to the price going back to what it was 5 days ago?
    Dec 30 06:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lucas Energy Appears To Be Turning The Corner, But Remain Cautious [View article]
    G&A is still extremely high. It needs to come down much more, however production increases can mask that given the price of oil. Cutting LOE should have been a rather quick process. Still seems high. Most wells are likely rod pumped. How much LOE can you have on those?

    Production increases are never a certainty, even on "low risk" projects. Given the situation LEI was/is in, if they stumbled on these projects, they were either toast or back to the equity markets. Investing before knowing any results of those operations was foolish IMO.

    I never said they need to comment on JVs. I said they need to update investors on the status of the Hagen EFS lease. They mention it in their presentation:

    "Evaluating drilling opportunities and strategic relationship with majority partner on our Eagle Ford Shale acreage."

    What does that mean? Does it mean it will be drilled next month? 2014? 2020? More detail should be requested from investors on such an important asset for the company and highly unlikely MRO would be upset over that. Why would they be? The acreage is already HBP, Lucas is party to the talks as a WI owner and it is rather material for investors to know. I could understand not talking about a pending sale of the acreage to MRO, but just drilling wells on acreage that Lucas has WI on? Come on now.

    Like I said in my other article, it is hard to tell how much Daraie as chairman will change things since he was already on the board. Hopefully he will have much more influence as chair. I mostly agree with your comments about the other two.

    LEI appears to be headed in the right direction, but can certainly still stumble. Look at the exit rate from June vs the avg production for July-Sept quarter. They have to prove they can sustain this production and continue to grow it.
    Dec 18 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's A Mistake To Hold Cash In This Market [View article]
    I know you are talking about high quality businesses, but in a downturn does that really matter? So goes the market, goes just about every stock. Even if your business is stout, everything ends up getting taken down due to the interconnectivity of the markets, margin calls, etc. How did the stocks listed above fare in 2008? Likely all were crushed with the overall market.

    Questions for you:

    Why did the market drop when Ben Bernanke simply hinted at tapering QE earlier this year?

    Why do we even need QE if the economy/market is so strong?

    Large portions of investor returns have been brought by share buybacks. How many of these would have been possible without ZIRP?

    Do you think investors are reaching for yield because of ZIRP?

    Please understand these are honest questions and I am not trying to be a smarty pants. We obviously have differing opinions and I'd like to hear what you have to say.
    Dec 12 02:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's A Mistake To Hold Cash In This Market [View article]
    I'd rather sell the top and miss out on a few small dividend payments vs hanging on and taking capital losses, realized or not.

    Take a 20% market decline for example. Not unheard of at all. On a 3% dividend payer, that's over seven years to payout. I would gladly take a bet that the market will have a rather large correction sometime in the next seven years.
    Dec 12 11:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's A Mistake To Hold Cash In This Market [View article]
    Yes that was my point User6707651. Scale out as the market reaches new highs and scale back in as it goes down. You'll wind up with many more shares this way. You scale in and out because no one will ever call the exact top or bottom.

    It doesn't really make sense to buy at the bottom and ignore selling at the top especially when the history of the market shows that these measly dividends are magnitudes less than the capital losses during crashes. On the same note, you can't just say the market always comes back without ignoring the fact that crashes happen in the first place to allow the market to come back. You can't cherry pick what you want from history.
    Dec 12 10:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's A Mistake To Hold Cash In This Market [View article]
    We simply have different investing ideas which is what makes a market. The last 5 years have been buy anything and you make money because the Fed is doing the same thing with created money with no care what the price is. What kicked off this rally? Suspension of market to market and QE1. I am of the opinion that the market is driven solely on ZIRP and QE which can't last forever. The taper tantrums over the past year are a pretty good indicator of this. The market is at all time highs on poor macro fundamentals, which to me says sell, not buy. I have been scaling out of my equity positions. Selling at the all time top can't be a bad thing. To me, downside is more likely than upside in the future. I'll gladly pass up 3% dividends now to avoid (IMO) rather large capital losses in the future.

    It seems like another premise of this article and those that agree with it, is that the market always goes up and always recovers from crashes based on past history. Well if you look at it that way, crashes end up always happening. Why would I not want to sell the current all time high and wait for the crash to get in much cheaper?
    Dec 12 10:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's A Mistake To Hold Cash In This Market [View article]
    This article isn't about selling the bottom. It's about buying the all time highs based on poor macro fundamentals. Decent companies aren't spared stock declines given the interconnected nature of everything in the markets. Your dad said that the market tanking is a good time to buy. How is the market at all time highs not a good time to sell then? Those 3% dividends are pretty insignificant in a large market correction.

    How much more money would you have made had you scaled out of your positions as the market reached new all time highs in 2007 with an obvious housing bubble in the works? Yea yea, easy to say in hindsight, but plenty of folks were calling the bubble and plenty of folks were saying no bubble. Just like current times. It's what makes a market and it seems like bulls never think the run can end just like bears thought the downturn would never end.
    Dec 12 10:14 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's A Mistake To Hold Cash In This Market [View article]
    You really think it is conspiracy talk to say that QE is levitating the markets?
    Dec 12 08:55 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment