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  • Down ~75%, CARBO Ceramics Is Too Attractive To Pass Up [View article]
    I thought I posted this earlier this morning, but I must not have hit publish:

    The premise that ceramic product adds 40% in EUR for only a 4 month payout is incredibly suspect. Everyone would be using this over sand if that were the case. You would be nuts not to. If I had to guess, the wells that used ceramic would have been just as good as using white sand. Geology is simply too big of an uncontrollable factor in comparing oil wells, especially horizontals.

    Ceramics are likely only being used on extremely deep wells where the operator thinks crush is an issue. In general, these are going to be the higher cost wells that are likely not economic at these price levels. Operators will likely stop drilling these or experiment with cheap white sand at depths where the calculations say it is supposed to crush. Is crush even a big deal? How much conductivity do you really need when your rock has minimal perm and you have a ton of reservoir contact? I know I have used white sand in places where the "by the book" procedure has said it would crush and it has been fine. Same for brown sand where we "should" have used white. Brown vs white is not as drastic of a price cut compared to ceramic vs white though. Cutting proppant grade is one of the easiest places to cut costs especially if you get to pump more lower grade proppant which is the direction the industry is moving.
    Feb 23, 2015. 05:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling - Best Of A Bad Bunch? [View article]
    Had some bad data. All is well now!
    Feb 23, 2015. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling - Best Of A Bad Bunch? [View article]
    What's up with the stock price this morning? Showing quotes at 1.75/2.20? Almost like a split but certainly not a split.
    Feb 23, 2015. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling - Best Of A Bad Bunch? [View article]
    No free link I don't think but here is the SPE link

    http://bit.ly/1CSHBW3

    You can see it at that link if you are an SPE member.
    Feb 20, 2015. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil pares losses after EIA supply data [View news story]
    It's the world's most needed inelastic commodity. 2% is large.
    Feb 19, 2015. 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling - Best Of A Bad Bunch? [View article]
    Some things to ponder:

    If Hess does not take the contract, the stock is likely to fall a significant amount. Stuff like that is never appreciated or priced in until it actually happens.

    Operators are going to do everything they can to keep from plugging wells in this environment. They do everything they can to avoid plugging in the good times too! :) Operators are increasingly looking for options to perform rigless plugging jobs. Drilling rigs simply cost too much. The Dec 2014 JPT, there is an 8 page article that specifically addresses this. Wild Well Control is planning on plugging 9 wells in 7,000 ft of water this year in the GoM with their new technology. Cost is expected to be 14 million per well while cost for a drilling rig would be 3-4 times higher. Average cost to plug a subsea well in the North Sea in 2014 was 27.5 million.

    With new technologies coming down the pipe and a subpar oil price environment supressing capex, AWLCF can't simply depend on decommissioning work to keep a rig busy. 6 rigs plus (likely) the Wilhunter are coming off contract in 2015. Dayrates are headed in one direction with those numbers. I sold my AWLCF this morning and will wait to see how this plays out. If oil stays down, I can see Wilhunter getting stacked as said above.
    Feb 19, 2015. 05:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil pares losses after EIA supply data [View news story]
    Insane that oil is going up on these build numbers.
    Feb 19, 2015. 11:36 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How SolarCity Sees The Future Playing Out And The S Curve [View article]
    My analysis didn't consider any of those. Sun exposure obviously varies across the country. Adding panel decay, positioning, dust, etc make the numbers look worse.

    How much did that 16KW array cost? It's nice to have no electric bill, but how much did they spend to get there? Is it a smart investment? I want to love solar because I think it is great to harness that free energy from the sun, but it has a LONG way to go for it to make sense for the average American homeowner even with tax credits. Convince me? I can be convinced with facts. How does it make sense for me or the average American?
    Feb 19, 2015. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How SolarCity Sees The Future Playing Out And The S Curve [View article]
    Solarcity's costs are $2.86/W. $2.09 of that is for install. Not sure what the consumer's cost is. Surely more. Solarcity thinks they can only get the cost down to $2.50/W by 2017.

    Some basic economics using the cost/watt for the company not consumer:

    Average electric cost in the US is around $0.10-0.12/kWh. Average home uses 900 kWh/mo.

    Assume 5 sunlight hours a day. 6 kW of capacity. 30 kWh/day = 900 kWh/mo

    900 kWh/mo * $0.12/kWh = $108/mo electric bill

    $2.86/W * 6000 W capacity = $17160

    $17160 / $108 = 159 month payout without subsidies

    $17160 * 0.7 / $108 = 111 month payout with a 30% federal subsidy

    None of the above even accounts for inefficiencies in the system, cloudy days, suboptimal positioning, dust on the panels, etc. I have seen efficiency numbers anywhere from 66-80%. It also doesn't consider that the panels will lose output over their life. How about hail on the panels? Insurance costs?

    Solar doesn't seem that great unless you are paying 2 or 3 times the average US rate for power or your state/power company has additional large subsides.
    Feb 18, 2015. 07:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity misses by $0.20, revenue in-line [View news story]
    Average electric cost in the US is around $0.10-0.12/kWh. Average home uses 900 kWh/mo.

    Assume 5 sunlight hours a day. 6 kW of capacity. 30 kWh/day = 900 kWh/mo

    900 kWh/mo * $0.12/kWh = $108/mo electric bill

    $2.86/W * 6000 W capacity = $17160

    $17160 / $108 = 159 month payout without subsidies

    $17160 * 0.7 / $108 = 111 month payout with a 30% federal subsidy

    None of the above even accounts for inefficiencies in the system, cloudy days, suboptimal positioning, dust on the panels, etc. I have seen efficiency numbers anywhere from 66-80%. It also doesn't consider that the panels will lose output over their life. How about hail on the panels? Insurance costs?

    Solar doesn't seem that great unless you are paying 2 or 3 times the average US rate for power or your state/power company has additional large subsides.

    EDIT: That $2.86/W looks like it is the cost to the company not the consumer LOL.
    Feb 18, 2015. 07:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity misses by $0.20, revenue in-line [View news story]
    30% drop in price of panels by end of 2016?
    Feb 18, 2015. 06:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity misses by $0.20, revenue in-line [View news story]
    Solar will be an amazing short at the end of 2016 if/when the 30% federal tax credit expires. Solar only borderline makes sense with the credit if you are paying out the wazoo for electricity. Even with the tax credit and normal $0.09-0.11 kWh rates, solar is going to take 11+ years to breakeven when you assume standard derates for dust, losses, etc.
    Feb 18, 2015. 05:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC minutes: June rate hike not a slam dunk yet [View news story]
    And what exactly are the conditions that will push the Fed to hike?
    Feb 18, 2015. 02:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC minutes: June rate hike not a slam dunk yet [View news story]
    Why would they need to raise? Inflation is underperforming their target. They clearly want a weak dollar. Why would they want to send the dollar even higher?
    Feb 18, 2015. 02:31 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC minutes: June rate hike not a slam dunk yet [View news story]
    No meaningful rate hikes ever.
    Feb 18, 2015. 02:28 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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