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  • Is Borders & Southern's Falkland Islands Gas Condensate Discovery Really Commercial? [View article]
    I don't know. It's hard to say. The share price surely could open 200% higher than previous. I guess it depends on what they find. FOGL's prospects have always been magnitudes bigger than RKH's or anyone else's and they have always had large WI.

    Oil in the bottom zone could be a HUGE deal. Nimrod bottom zone would probably be oily, Scotia would probably be oily, and the huge Diomedia would probably be oily.

    I think you'll definitely still make good money afterwards, just not as much. Depending on the find and how much money you have at risk, the money you missed could be substantial. It's all about your risk level and your goals for the reward.
    Sep 12, 2012. 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Borders & Southern's Falkland Islands Gas Condensate Discovery Really Commercial? [View article]
    FOGL catching a bid today. Was up to 80p today and as London approaches close, it looks like it wants to get back there.

    Was Monday/Tuesday just a huge treeshake that was exacerbated by the CHAR debacle? Is today pump and dump? Hard to say.

    I think that FOGL has something. I can't see themselves wanting to pull a CHAR by releasing a neutral/calming PR and then a couple days later coming back and saying sorry dry hole. But hey, common sense/decency would say that no one would do that and what happened? CHAR did it.
    Sep 12, 2012. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Borders & Southern's Falkland Islands Gas Condensate Discovery Really Commercial? [View article]
    The main difference here between the CHAR and FOGL situation is that CHAR was TANKING on BIG volume before the "everything is ok" RNS. If I remember right last week they were down like 33% on no news. FOGL was just down 10% this morning on better than average volume but still very light. The hard selling/big volume did not start until the RNS. Folks just didn't want to get caught in another CHAR. If CHAR had not announced dust this morning, I don't think FOGL takes this big hit.

    They obviously took the high road on shows and did not say anything either way. I'm not sure anyone knows anything on this well.

    It will probably be 2 days before they start logging. A couple days to log, then interpretations. I would say RNS on Loligo Monday. Friday MAYBE, but they like to release stuff on Mondays.
    Sep 10, 2012. 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Borders & Southern's Falkland Islands Gas Condensate Discovery Really Commercial? [View article]
    You can get some indicators of it through shows and drill cuttings.Shows can be depressed by drilling overbalanced though. The LWD package should give an indication as well.

    I don't know about a buying opportunity. With the games the big players play, its hard to know what the hell is going on. Is it just a treeshake of epic proportions? Or has news been leaked?

    Ask yourself this...why would you release a "Drilling update in response to speculation and price movement" if you had nothing? It's obviously a release to try and stop the downward movement of the stock? Why do that if you have nothing good? Logically this makes sense, but CHAR's BOD has me on tilt not knowing what to believe because they did the same thing. CHAR was down massively on heavy volume, they released a PR saying we don't know anything, and then bam a couple days later dry hole.

    There is so much manipulation these days. Look at PCL on the Aussie exchange. Down 33% one day on essentially a gas find news and then up 90% today. Massive swings on the same news. wtf?
    Sep 10, 2012. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Borders & Southern's Falkland Islands Gas Condensate Discovery Really Commercial? [View article]
    CHAR's dry hole is dragging it down some. Possible selling to cover CHAR margin calls, but also probably some realization that the same thing can happen to FOGL.

    FOGL just came out with a news release saying TD within 24 hrs and the stock tumbled 20%. Not really sure what to make of it as CHAR came out and said there was no news and the bad news turned out to be true.

    http://bit.ly/Q90BLT
    Sep 10, 2012. 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Borders & Southern's Falkland Islands Gas Condensate Discovery Really Commercial? [View article]
    I don't think a Loligo duster drops you to 40p. I think more like 60-70p. Scotia has way too much potential and there is no reason for the share price to drop below the cash value. Looking at the share price from months ago is not very relevant. Much has happened since then.
    Aug 29, 2012. 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Borders & Southern's Falkland Islands Gas Condensate Discovery Really Commercial? [View article]
    Hard to say how the market will react to a dry Loligo. It will certainly take a hit as it is "King Daddy" of their prospects, but Scotia is huge as well so who knows.

    The market continues to pick up on the fact that Darwin is probably not all that. BOR down another ~10%.
    Aug 29, 2012. 07:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Borders & Southern's Falkland Islands Gas Condensate Discovery Really Commercial? [View article]
    BOR ends down 15% and FOGL was up a couple percent. Good signs for FOGL. Not sure if it means info is leaking out or what, we'll have to see how this week goes.

    It's super hard to say what the valuation will be as it certainly depends on what they find and the market's mood. RKH went from 40p to 300p in a month on a find that was much much smaller than FOGLs prospects. RKH (at 300p) was valued at around ~$4/contingent bbl. A full find at Loligo using the same valuation would value FOGL at $14B with the equivalent share price at ~2800p vs the current 96p price. Roughly about 30x from here. A successful appraisal program would further increase the value as NPV10 of these finds has been stated as $10/bbl and with 3.5B bbls net, FOGLs share would be worth $35B. These are the types of plays CVX, XOM, etc buys. They don't buy 200MMbbls of condensate by itself.

    I would expect FOGL to have a better valuation for a few reasons: FOGL already has some heavy hitters as partners and the sheer size of the prospect. RKH had no significant partners on their finds and actually had trouble finding a partner and had to end up taking what the could get from Premier. FOGL is going to have the opposite problem if they come through with a multibillion barrel find. Companies will be fighting over FOGL and its properties.

    You could even chop the find to a third of advertised volumes and FOGL would still be looking at over 1B bbls net. Then you are talking about 10x price from here.

    All of the above doesn't even take into account Scotia or any other wells they might drill. They have tendered for another rig for 1 or 2 wells later this year. Scotia is advertised as another 400MMbbls net to FOGL.

    The numbers are so massive that I think a lot of people have a hard time wrapping their head around it and believing that the stock could go that high. The reality is that in a few wells FOGL could have more contingent resources than most of the large US independents have reserves.
    Aug 28, 2012. 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Borders & Southern's Falkland Islands Gas Condensate Discovery Really Commercial? [View article]
    Waiting for the first well may be a good strategy. You might miss out on a good majority of the jump though. There certainly will be some left to gain. If they hit Loligo, there's absolutely no reason to be out for Scotia. That's pretty much a free well at that point. If Loligo is a duster, I will probably buy some more shares. The most important thing is that you've got to go into these knowing you can lose 50% or more. Even if you buy in after a Loligo hit and they drill an appraisal well and it is much much smaller than expected, your money is going to get chopped. Oil exploration is extremely risky.

    BOR down 9% right now. Looks like folks are possibly using their brains and figuring out that 200 MMbbls of condensate stranded at the ends of the earth in deep water actually might not be that good.
    Aug 28, 2012. 07:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Borders & Southern's Falkland Islands Gas Condensate Discovery Really Commercial? [View article]
    Thanks for the comments! I also agree with the fact that BOR had to get something good out there. BOR's transparency has never given me a warm fuzzy feeling. Look at their presentations compared to FOGLs. BOR has hardly anything. Once a year for the shareholder meeting? Pitiful.

    What you invest in depends on what you are going for. Premier, Edison, or Noble are not going to move as much as FOGL and not going to fall as hard.

    I am in FOGL because I want the grand slam. Downside is protected by their cash position. Roughly 50% loss is the downside. The potential upside is simply ridiculous and with the backing of Noble and EDF they could have appraisal/development going sooner than even Premier and BOR.

    RKH is dead money right now for 3 years until Premier gets a rig to Sea Lion. Plus not too much upside in RKH anymore. DES & ARG are dead money. BOR is going to follow FOGL on the downside and be magnitudes smaller on the upside. FOGL is the only Falklands player I want to be in and I would want to be in before their their two mega prospects are drilled.

    Another thing to consider is that if BOR has trouble finding a partner (which I think they will), the cash BOR is going to have to raise for further exploration is tremendous. Each well at $50 million or more with a market cap of only $200 million? Lots of dilution.
    Aug 25, 2012. 09:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Borders & Southern's Stebbing Results Are A Blow To Falklands Exploration [View article]
    Nice! Hopefully we made the right decision. FOGL has exponentially more resource potential than BOR. Almost 4B bbl net BOE in two drills vs BORs 190MM bbl. A few more zeros on FOGL :)
    Aug 24, 2012. 07:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Borders & Southern's Stebbing Results Are A Blow To Falklands Exploration [View article]
    I have an article waiting to be published. I sold my BOR on the pop. Lost my ass on the Stebbing results, but it was nice to get some back from Darwin fluid results. It may have been too early to sell, but I just don't think Darwin by itself is enough to attract a partner. I don't think it is enough volume given the depth of water, remote location, drilling challenges, and only having one well drilled.

    If they can even attract someone, a partner is going to want a significant chunk of the pie to come participate, see RKH/Premier. If BOR keeps half, that leaves the partner with 95MMbbls? That's not a lot given where they are drilling. Premier got 60% of 350mmbbls and gets to drill in much nicer seas, way shallower water, and the field is already appraised. BOR needs the partner, the partner doesn't need BOR so they are able to drive a hard bargain. 190 million barrels is not earth shattering.

    Another thing to consider is that BOR isn't going to drill another well till 2014. That's a long time. Lots of things can happen until then. FOGL will be able to move quicker with the backing of NBL and EDF. You know if they hit something large that NBL will be moving rigs down there as soon as they can.

    FOGL is the 800lb gorilla in the room. If they come up dry, I feel like BOR may have hell finding a partner. FOGL dry holes will cast large shadows of doubt on the Falkland oil story. On the other hand, if they hit, Darwin becomes way more attractive on simply the synergy the large FOGL/EDF/NBL operation is going to bring to the Falkland Islands.

    I still like FOGL and heavily long FOGL. I am ready for the Loligo results! Tired of waiting!
    Aug 23, 2012. 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Borders & Southern's Stebbing Results Are A Blow To Falklands Exploration [View article]
    Do you have a link to this BP report? I'd like to read that if you had a link.

    Don't write off the Falklands yet! FOGL has two high profile drills coming up! They are and always have been the best chance for the South Falklands Basin oil story. Before RKH made their farmout deal, the market valued them at $3.35/contingent bbl. If FOGL could find their P50 at Loligo, the same valuation would value FOGL's 3.5 Bbbls at almost 12 billion dollars. 35x the current market cap.

    Is that a stretch from one well? Maybe, maybe not. There are a few things that are different. RKH has quite a few wells down at Sea Lion, but you can get a pretty decent idea of what you have from one well so I think you can realize most of the value from one well. Minus a few short term bumps, RKH didn't do much (minus a few short term bumps) as appraisal wells were drilled. FOGL has already completed their farmout with a large partner. Lots of things to consider on valuation.

    To say I am ready for Loligo is an understatement. :)
    Jul 19, 2012. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Borders & Southern's Stebbing Results Are A Blow To Falklands Exploration [View article]
    It's anybody's guess. RPS has done a report for FOGL that stated 100MM barrels/5TCF as the economic limit. Current BOR market cap is $110MM. After their two drills, I am guessing they have about $40MM left in cash. Therefore giving Darwin a current implied value of $70MM.

    Obviously the economic limit is going to be much different depending on fluid composition. Anything commercial is going to have to a significantly higher NPV than $70MM. No one is going to drill deep water Falklands for a prize of $70MM. So if you just assume the same requirements for commericality as FOGL (big stretch that depends solely on fluid samples), you need a 100MM barrel find. Even if you give that an NPV of $3/bbl, that is worth $300MM. So at least 3-4x from here maybe more depending on the fluid analysis.

    BOR catalysts are: Darwin fluid results, Stebbing log analysis, FOGL results, possible 3D seismic later in the year, share offerings.

    FOGL results will be huge for BOR. If FOGL hits a huge gas find, that probably instantly makes Darwin commercial no matter what. If FOGL hits oil, it also bodes well for BOR being a takeover candidate possibly by FOGL/EDF.

    I'm still holding onto my BOR for a couple reasons: it has been thoroughly destroyed already (not much left to lose relatively) and the upcoming fluid analysis and the FOGL drills. If the fluid sample comes back with little liquids, BOR probably drops to cash value.

    In the end, it's all about the fluid analysis for BOR. On a side note, I still can't figure out why BOR and FOGL are not drill stem testing their wells. I'm sure it is regulatory related not wanting to pull a Macondo, but relying on just logs and not a DST seems ridiculous. Fully abandoning the wells is a huge waste as well. Cutting the casing off 10 feet below the mud is not necessary. Who fishes at the bottom of 6,000ft of water?
    Jul 19, 2012. 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Borders & Southern's Stebbing Results Are A Blow To Falklands Exploration [View article]
    Thanks! That is one of the best things about FOGL/FLKOF. You have a relief valve if the first drill doesn't work. They will drill Scotia I am guessing after a dry Loligo. Nimrod is the same type of play as Loligo so the thinking would be that if Loligo was a bust Nimrod would be too. Obviously Loligo is the big prize, but Scotia is still over a billion barrels.

    The market is overreacting here so I bought a little more FLKOF today. The selloff is really guilt by association. The depositional environment of Loligo is different and Loligo is some 200 miles from Stebbing. The ~2.5 month wait for results is going to be tough to sit through! Good luck!
    Jul 18, 2012. 06:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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