Seeking Alpha

Blake Morgan

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Blake Morgan's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Tower Group: A Classic Overreaction Story [View article]
    Did you see the 8-K filed today?

    On September 24, 2013, Gary S. Maier notified Tower Group International, Ltd. (the "Company") of his resignation effective as of October 4, 2013, from his position as Executive Vice President and Chief Underwriting Officer of Tower Group, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company.

    The management is jumping ship.

    Like I said, real life is different from your academia.
    Sep 24, 2013. 05:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Are Premiums On Physical Gold And Silver Rising Even As Futures Crash? [View article]
    How did this "article" even get published?

    I just quickly glanced through it and noticed BLATANT errors in grammar. For example:

    "It has simply being naked shorting"

    That sentence lowers my IQ as I read it.

    Also, there is NO evidence provided for the naked shorting, had you named a firm that was "naked shorting" you could be sued for libel, instead you simply make a very strong statement without evidence.
    Jun 27, 2013. 03:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kulicke And Soffa Industries: This Semiconductor Company Has Room To Run [View article]
    Shhhh! What are you doing? You're telling everybody about my diamond in the rough.
    Jun 3, 2013. 10:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Permian Trust: Distribution Is Safe; Could Return +55% Within 1 Year [View article]
    I think people are worried about Sandridge going bankrupt as well. SD is not looking good. From the risk factors:

    "SandRidge’s ability to satisfy its obligations to the Trust depends on its financial position, and in the event of a default by SandRidge in its obligation to drill the Trust Development Wells, or in the event of SandRidge’s bankruptcy, it would be expensive and time-consuming for the Trust to exercise its remedies."

    "Due to the Trust’s reliance on SandRidge to fulfill these numerous obligations, the value of the Royalty Interests and its ultimate cash available for distribution is highly dependent on SandRidge’s performance."

    "SandRidge has other drilling obligations, including a drilling obligation to another royalty trust, which will require it to make capital expenditures over the next several years at the same time it plans to drill the remaining Trust Development Wells. SandRidge’s ability to satisfy its drilling obligation to the Trust will depend on, among other things, the availability of sufficient funds and drilling rigs. More generally, SandRidge’s ability to satisfy its drilling obligation to the Trust and to perform these obligations depends on its future financial condition and economic performance and access to capital, which in turn depends upon the supply and demand for oil and natural gas, prevailing economic conditions and financial, business and other factors, many of which are beyond SandRidge’s control."

    "In the event that SandRidge defaults on its obligation to drill the remaining Trust Development Wells, the Trust would be entitled to foreclose on the lien granted to the trust by SandRidge E&P in order to secure the estimated amount of the drilling costs for the Trust’s interests in the undeveloped Underlying Properties (the “Drilling Support Lien”) to the extent of SandRidge’s remaining interests in the undeveloped portions of the AMI. However, the maximum amount the Trust can recover in such a foreclosure or other action was, as of December 31, 2013, approximately $68.0 million, which amount will be reduced proportionately as each remaining Trust Development Well is drilled and perforated for completion. The value of SandRidge’s interests in the undeveloped portions of the AMI secured by the Drilling Support Lien may not be equal to the amount potentially recoverable at any given time, and such interests may be worth considerably less. The process of foreclosing on such collateral would be expensive and time-consuming and would delay the drilling and completion of the remaining Trust Development Wells; such delays and expenses would reduce Trust distributions by reducing the amount of proceeds available for distribution. Any amounts actually recovered in a foreclosure action would be applied to completion of SandRidge’s drilling obligation, would not result in any distribution to the Trust unitholders and may be insufficient to drill the number of wells needed for the Trust to realize the full value of the Development Well Royalty Interest. Furthermore, the Trust would have to seek a new party to perform the drilling and operations of the wells. The Trust may not be able to find a replacement driller or operator, and it may not be able to enter into a new agreement with such replacement party on favorable terms within a reasonable period of time."

    "SandRidge is not required to maintain a segregated account for proceeds payable to the Trust. The proceeds of the Royalty Interests may be commingled, for a period of time, with proceeds of SandRidge’s retained interest in the Underlying Properties for the period of time between SandRidge’s sale of hydrocarbons attributable to the Royalty Interests and the quarterly payment to the Trust of its share of proceeds. It is possible that the Trust may not have adequate facts to trace its entitlement to funds in the commingled pool of funds and that other persons may, in asserting claims against SandRidge’s retained interest, be able to assert claims to the proceeds that should be delivered to the Trust. If there is an event of default under SandRidge’s credit facility, SandRidge must keep its accounts with banks that enter into control agreements with the administrative agent under the credit facility, which would permit the administrative agent to direct payment of funds in such accounts during the pendency of an event of default. In addition, during any bankruptcy of SandRidge, it is possible that payments of the royalties may be delayed or deferred. During the pendency of any SandRidge bankruptcy proceedings, the Trust’s ability to foreclose on the Drilling Support Lien, and the ability to collect cash payments being held in SandRidge’s accounts that are attributable to production from the Trust properties, may be stayed by the bankruptcy court. Delay in realizing on the collateral for the Drilling Support Lien is possible, and it cannot be guaranteed that a bankruptcy court would permit such foreclosure. It is possible that the bankruptcy would also delay the execution of a new agreement with another driller or operator. If the Trust enters into a new agreement with a drilling or operating partner, the new partner might not achieve the same levels of production or sell oil and natural gas at the same prices as SandRidge was able to achieve."

    I think given the risk in SD, PER being valued at 9 makes sense. As nice as the return could be I don't believe it's worth the risk of the uncertainty. A lot could go wrong.
    Oct 18, 2014. 10:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Yuchai: Trading Below Net Tangible Assets And Growing Fast [View article]
    Hey Barn Find, Hong Leong Asia LTD does not own a majority of shares, (36.739% as of the 10th of July) BUT Hong Leong Asia LTD does have a majority control (confused yet?) due to their special share which gives them basically majority power. Hong Leong Asia is in Singapore, yes. I can't comment on their movement into other markets - too little information. If the Chinese government chooses to subsidize Yuchai and essentially "not play by the international rules" then Yuchai could have a huge advantage in the global market. As for your older inquiry, I could not locate percentages on foreign exports.
    Aug 2, 2014. 12:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Yuchai: Trading Below Net Tangible Assets And Growing Fast [View article]
    Hey Barn Find, I too was looking for percentages on exports when writing the article. I did not find anything right off the bat - but I will peruse some of their filings and let you know if I find something. I imagine the percentage is pretty small as of now.
    Jul 31, 2014. 09:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil And Gas Trust Value Rankings (Q4 2013 Results) [View article]
    Hello,

    This article (http://seekingalpha.co...) was published on Seeking Alpha the same day as this article. The article I linked claims a PV-10 of $6.23. You claim $3.66. How can you two be so wildly apart? One of you is very clearly wrong. I am trying to determine who is wrong.
    Mar 18, 2014. 09:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tower Group: A Classic Overreaction Story [View article]
    I can only go back to this comment I originally made.

    Please people, remember the past when trading stocks.

    Academic analysis is useless in the real trading world.
    Oct 7, 2013. 09:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tower Group: A Classic Overreaction Story [View article]
    In the world of academia this makes sense.

    In the real trading world, nobody should go near this stock.

    The absolute silence over the past few days indicate something is truly awry.

    If you have experience trading, you would know that steep drops followed by a silent management usually result in a near 99% loss in investment within the next year.

    Do you want examples? I'm sure you have them as a professor.
    Sep 24, 2013. 03:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Tech Stocks With Recent Intensive Insider Selling [View article]
    I love how UNXL shareholders need to keep telling themselves their stock is a good investment and bash anything negative. If it was such a good investment, why not just silently hold it knowing you'll do well? Always makes you wonder.
    Mar 7, 2013. 01:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Short TASER International [View article]
    "Book value? Who cares?" Investors with any sense.
    "$20 million in free cash flow over four quarters" That is an absolutely tiny amount compared to their 480 million market cap.
    "Book value fell because of the buyback" This is where you lose all credibility, buybacks INCREASE book value.
    "How many executives enter into options to purchase a million shares?" Hundreds.
    Jan 17, 2013. 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An End To Our Relationship With Yahoo, A New Era For Equity Research [View article]
    I look at this from a different perspective. I see this change potentially increasing the time it takes to get articles published/putting strain on the editors/possibly lowering profit for Seeking Alpha. For people who average over $35 per article, this will not affect them and they will continue to put out articles at the same rate. For those who average less than $35 per article, they will have a stronger incentive to put out new articles - whether they are high or low quality. This results in a net increase in articles. With articles being written by people who average under $35 increasing in number, perhaps drastically, this will mean Seeking Alpha could potentially be paying more than they make for those lower viewed articles. Will it reach a point where it negatively affects profits? If it reaches that point, Seeking Alpha will need to decrease the flat payment which leads me to believe this flat payment is at risk.

    I have seem some Seeking Alpha articles that are less than a single Microsoft Word page - would those get the $35 dollars? Those articles probably take 30 minutes to an hour to write, I don't believe those articles are worth $35 and Seeking Alpha is now going to have much more of them being submitted.

    Since I write about companies that are not too popular, this benefits me and I am happy for my own sake this change was made. It means a few more dinners out with friends. However, I hope for Seeking Alpha's sake it works out.
    Jul 27, 2014. 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take Advantage Of China's Gaming Growth With Perfect World [View article]
    CYOU made a net loss last quarter and in its guidance predicted another net loss for the next quarter. That doesn't strike me as a better P/E.
    May 9, 2014. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take Advantage Of China's Gaming Growth With Perfect World [View article]
    I did focus more on the positives in this article. Even taking into account the negatives, PWRD is still the best option when trying to take advantage of gaming growth in my opinion. Yes, margins are declining, but PWRD's margins are ridiculously high to begin with. While profit has recently been declining, the last quarter showed profit should start stabilizing and the PE ratio gets lower and lower each day with these price drops. (and the dividend increases)

    PWRD has very little vested in mobile and consoles. They have literally one mobile game they just released.

    I personally like the stake in GAME, even at a high premium. I like that the company is branching out, diversification can be a great thing, especially if some of PWRD's material comes out weak or if GAME strikes it big with a new hit. Better than having that cash sitting there.

    I am personally buying more, doubling my position each time it decreases 20% from my last purchase.

    If you know of a Chinese company that benefits from online gaming and has a better PE ratio/balance sheet, please share it with me, I'm very interested.
    May 7, 2014. 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take Advantage Of China's Gaming Growth With Perfect World [View article]
    I haven't seen that Hershy, I don't see any reason EPS would be that high, even in 2015.
    May 6, 2014. 01:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
38 Comments
14 Likes