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The Yellen Fed And U.S. Labor Market Dynamics
Wed, Jul. 2 • 3 Comments
- How to analyze labor markets from the perspective of monetary policy-making.
- We highlight crucial differences in interpretation that could fuel debate, both inside and outside the Fed.
- Our central theme is that interactions among labor market conditions, economic growth, inflation, and inflation expectations are inherently dynamic.
Challenges To Abenomics: Japanese Growth Rides On Potentially Elusive Productivity Gains
- Abenomics was sold to the electorate in December 2012.
- Policy was sold partly on hope and partly on a willingness to give change a chance based on the frustrations of the past two.
- There is a burning desire in Japan to regain some of the past economic glory and to attain annual real GDP growth rates above 2% and possibly higher.
China: FX Pressures Altering Demand For U.S. Treasuries
- The Chinese RMB versus the US dollar moved from 6.0484 to 6.1457 between 24 January and 3 March.
- This small currency move can be viewed as further evidence of some basic trends in the Chinese economy that we have been following for some time.
- In 2011, we argued that the end of the infrastructure boom would lead to a more rapid deceleration of economic growth than most market analysts were anticipating.
Fed Forward Guidance In The Spotlight
Mon, Mar. 10 • 1 Comment
- Yellen Fed begins to take shape.
- The two upcoming FOMC press conferences will give Yellen ample opportunity to define the nature of monetary policymaking under her leadership.
- We expect Yellen to give considerable attention to how forward guidance is communicated.
- Emerging Market Turmoil Abating?
- U.S. Economy: Solid Momentum Entering 2014
Fed Likely To Postpone QE Tapering Decision Into 2014
Oct. 7, 2013 • 1 Comment
A New Direction For The FOMC And For U.S. Treasuries?
Oct. 2, 2013 • 3 Comments
- Japan: A Whiff Of Inflation?
September 2013: Potentially A Very Challenging Month For The U.S. Treasury Market
Editors' Pick • Sep. 5, 2013 • 6 Comments
- Monitoring The Dual Mandate Of The Federal Reserve
U.S. Inflation: Delayed, Not Denied
Editors' Pick • May. 30, 2013 • 114 Comments