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  • Alliance One International: 10 Reasons Why This Tobacco Stock Should Be Avoided [View article]
    You have not added anything of value with this analysis. These are 10 financial metrics listed w/ past performance that could be found on yahoo. I think anyone could see that.
    Nov 4, 2014. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Equivocal Hostile Takeover Of Central European Distribution Company [View article]
    Have you read through the debentures and the other public filings?

    CEDC took on debt to finance the acquisition of Mr. Kaufman's Whitehall. We briefly analyzed the acquisition in this analysis: http://seekingalpha.co....

    In 2011 the company took write downs of about $1billion. Are you able to prove in court that there was fraud? I have no idea-we are recent Penn State finance graduates writing articles to gain experience. I agree that the situation at CEDC smells bad, and should be investigated.

    Personally, I'm not willing to invest the time necessary to get to the bottom of things. Zach and I are putting CEDC on the watchlist until there are significant changes.
    Mar 14, 2013. 12:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rambus Shares Rally, Here's What You Need To Know [View article]
    Wow, you showed your returns over a 2 month period.

    "I work out of Fairport, NY tough guy... pretty sure E*TRADE made working on Wall Street possible from home?" - LMAO, yeah thats what i thought.

    Dont worry, i wont write anymore on your articles. You should just give these unsophisticated investors long-term odds on your results and what they can expect ON A CONSERVATIVE BASIS, and not appeal to emotions with your flashing lights and supersize videos.
    Mar 5, 2013. 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rambus Shares Rally, Here's What You Need To Know [View article]
    "I made my mark (and my fortune) on Wall Street" - where on the street?

    Idk anyone who made a fortune on the street that makes pretentious comments to seduce people into a quarterly newsletter.

    Why did you not include your cedc trade in your recent results?

    Mar 5, 2013. 06:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rambus Shares Rally, Here's What You Need To Know [View article]
    I love the sensationalism and emotion oozing out of your website. Where on wall street did you work? You should use GIPS standards and publish all your clients returns without survivorship bias to your site.

    Turn $2500 into $16500 in 5 weeks-its sickening how you advertise these things; especially to a target market you know to be unsophisticated.

    btw, i dont see the CEDC trade on your "recent results". Ohh- i see where it says "this table is accurate, though not every trade is represented"
    Mar 5, 2013. 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Central European Distribution A Takeover Candidate? [View article]
    I love the sensationalism and emotion oozing out of your website. Where on wall street did you work? You should use GIPS standards and publish all your clients returns without survivorship bias to your site.

    Turn $2500 into $16500 in 5 weeks-its sickening how you advertise these things; especially to a target market you know to be unsophisticated.

    btw, i dont see the CEDC trade on your "recent results". Ohh- i see where it says "this table is accurate, though not every trade is represented".
    Mar 5, 2013. 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom In Unconventional Places [View article]
    HA, I appreciate the post. Its like an answer to my prayer. I wrote this the other day: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 2, 2013. 01:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Equivocal Hostile Takeover Of Central European Distribution Company [View article]
    Yesterday I lent my friend $0.50 to buy a soda. He gave me back a whole dollar. 100% return.
    Feb 27, 2013. 10:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Equivocal Hostile Takeover Of Central European Distribution Company [View article]
    Now i see how your online IRA business gets 8000% returns!

    Well, my puts did well in the past two weeks with the underlying declining 60% in one day.

    Thanks to all who read the article. If anyone is interested in collaborating or speaking through email, we can be reached at bluewhiteinvestors@gma...
    Feb 26, 2013. 09:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Equivocal Hostile Takeover Of Central European Distribution Company [View article]
    In terms of expected value on the puts, where i bought them there was an implied 60% bk. After doing the research, i believe bk has a higher probability than 60%.

    0=80x-(120-120x)

    The more expensive the puts get, which i expect in the next month, the breakeven will rise. if it rises to a very high % then i may sell them. I dont think bk is 100%, but do believe its higher than 60%.

    I was long when it looked probable that convertibles would be backstopped-i am short now given that they are not(plus many other reasons). If cedc gets the cash or figures out a way to not file for ch11, i will prob be long again at these prices.
    Feb 15, 2013. 01:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Equivocal Hostile Takeover Of Central European Distribution Company [View article]
    what are you saying?

    "Even bond holders may agree to negotiate as if chpt 11 is filed, they may get much less than they paid for."

    Were not talking about what the value of the bonds are or will be. We simply state that it is OUR OPINION that CEDC appears probable for chapter 11. Given this, common shares would suffer.

    What is it you disagree with in this analysis? Why?
    Feb 14, 2013. 10:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Equivocal Hostile Takeover Of Central European Distribution Company [View article]
    We really appreciate your input.

    You may be a bondholder, in which your analysis is different from mine. We are not attempting to figure out recovery rates etc. if chapter 11 is filed, the COMMON gets hammered. So, we seem to agree.

    In terms of bonds, which i have very little experience, is lien status not greater than senior? In what courts will all this go through? US, RUSSIA? Does Tariko not have an edge in russian courts?
    Feb 14, 2013. 10:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Equivocal Hostile Takeover Of Central European Distribution Company [View article]
    read the article:

    "The facts at the time warranted such probabilities in our opinion. We previously assumed, albeit naively, that the Russian Standard alliance would solve liquidity problems caused by the convertible notes shortly approaching. With the 2013 convertible notes paid, CEDC would be able to focus on its operations, and continue as a going concern. This would provide the company time to pay off its much larger 2016 senior secured notes.

    The facts within the past six months have changed considerably. In this analysis, we will not perform a probability based lattice. Any probability assumptions would be overwhelmingly subjective. We advise all readers to consider the facts presented, not necessarily by us, but through the public filings, and create their own opinions."
    Feb 14, 2013. 11:26 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Do Hedge Funds Do? [View instapost]
    Reflexivity at its finest
    Feb 13, 2013. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Central European Distribution A Takeover Candidate? [View article]
    Hey Mr. Bond,

    There are a few things you missed. Tariko has an interesting position in the company. The operational committee consist of three people; tariko, 1rtl, and 1 rtl. The CEO and CFO report to the operational committee.

    Read the Term Sheet. Your perception of RTL's commitment to the alliance is off. Why would he exercise his put option?

    Btw, Russian standard and CEDC are competitors. Conflict of interest is huge-and if CEDC defaults, meaning cross default, who do you think would love some of those russian assets at firesale?

    The 2/12/13 13D is strange though. Curious what the polish pension fund is thinking.

    Your thoughts are appreciated.
    Feb 12, 2013. 11:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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27 Comments
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