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Bo Peng  

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  • China's Intermediate And Long-Term Outlook [View article]
    I believe I have. If it weren't for the Euro crisis, I believe US would be ok -- barely growing, but no recession. The real risk remains with Euro. There is no sense of urgency among the Euro zone populace, at least those that matter on this issue, anmely the Germans and French. And the cultural gap between the two Europes is too wide. To make it worse, US seems to have adopted an attitude of "not my problem," if not "well that was fun while it lasted."

    So I think there's a good chance Euro will fall apart in some fashion in a year or two, if not this year. The shock could drag the world into a recession. But I think it would be short-lived, because the problem would have been actually solved. A separate Europe at least has a chance to recover.
    Oct 17, 2011. 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Intermediate And Long-Term Outlook [View article]
    Tom, I think many of my jokes have also gone completely unnoticed...

    I agree CNY will have to go up and I think it will, but not nearly as quickly as the west would like to see. To compensate for the rise of Yuan, China needs to migrate up the value chain. It really comes down to a race of time between the rise of Yuan and the migration up the value chain. It is exactly because of this I'm pessimistic on China's long-term outlook.
    Oct 17, 2011. 03:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Intermediate And Long-Term Outlook [View article]
    People like you, meaning the self-righteous, judgemental type, could never see the positive side of the enormous change that's been taking place in China. I'm libertarian by nature. I'm among the first to criticize any big government, of which Beijing is of course a prime example. But the world is multi-faceted. Let's try not to confuse things.
    Oct 17, 2011. 11:43 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Intermediate And Long-Term Outlook [View article]
    OF, it's actually quite feasible to leave buildings empty for years in China because the maintenance cost (including financing cost) is -- or rather "can be", for the right people -- so low. I'm not saying it's desirable for anyone, nor socially sensible. But financially it CAN be a viable choice. This may no longer be the case going forward, though.
    Oct 17, 2011. 11:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Apple's Jobs Premium [View article]
    It took Steve Jobs to find Ive, put him to the spot, guide him, and manage him. It's very likely that there've always been many Ive's in the world over the past 10/20/30 years. I'm not sure the design talents in the design teams of Samsung/Nokia/Motorola are any less. And I'm sure many other companies have equally outstanding coding talents. The difference is Steve Jobs, though often only indirectly.

    Usually I try to avoid putting too much credit to one person. But in this case I'm invariably led back to Jobs.
    Oct 9, 2011. 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Apple's Jobs Premium [View article]
    Wow, I knew there're a lot of Apple lovers but the passion still surprised me. Too many people falling in love with a stock is a good confirmation for short. Thank you all for commenting.
    Oct 9, 2011. 01:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Waiting for This False Bear to Pass [View article]
    Yes, I think the current slow-down is directly caused by the inflation stoked by QE2. I've written about this numerous times. And I think the Fed has to recognize this, though not publicly. Bernanke is gradually and grudgingly coming to the realization that he really should've looked at BOJ with envy and admiration rather than contempt. The dollar's reserve status does give him an edge; but that edge has worn thin already by his massive printing.
    Aug 3, 2011. 10:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Debt Ceiling Talk Collapse Would Be a Great Thing [View article]
    thanks.

    I think the point about people not being able to use UST as the risk free benchmark is categorically invalid. People with money on the line, as opposed to talking heads or economists, have to adjust to markets quickly. As soon as the US sov CDS started trading at >20-30bps and with non-negligible volume, people mentioned above notices. Libor has stopped being the universal discount curve since 08, so what? Do you stomp your feet and throw a tantrum?

    But people love to throw tantrums in politics. It works.

    And if some fund manager playing with other people's money still have not adjusted to reality, well, people have the right to remain ignorant.
    Jul 19, 2011. 09:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debt Ceiling Talk Collapse Would Be a Great Thing [View article]
    You're right in that, in a rational world, the excess money supply would be mopped up by the Fed in time as soon as money velocity picks up, and no harm is done by printing. Also, in such a world default serves no purpose.

    But the picture changes when you introduce human behavior and politics. The Fed will always be late in tightening, given Bernanke's repeatedly stated and demonstrated strong dovish bias, because there'll always be seemingly strong arguments against tightening (don't kill the fledgling fragile recovery etc). There's just too much interest vested in delaying tightening, even if just for one day.

    By the same token, somebody has to draw a line in the sand and say enough shit already. If we don't get shocked this time, it'd probably take a bigger disaster before we get another chance at this. This is again more about human psychology/behavior and politics than anything else.
    Jul 19, 2011. 01:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debt Ceiling Talk Collapse Would Be a Great Thing [View article]
    It was last year, I think.

    As bullish as I am about gold, I think it's a terrible currency. Bitcoin would be better. The elasticity of fiat system is extremely powerful, as in an extremely powerful tool can do equally great amount of good and bad.

    Perhaps the Fed chairmanship should be treated similar to Supreme Justices -- lifetime tenure. It's at least as powerful as the Court anyway. Similar to the Court, lifetime tenure should include all FOMC members.

    Look at Greenspan, the guy actually makes a lot of sense after leaving the Fed! And this is not even necessarily hypocrisy. The guy had to plan for his life after -- it's only human,
    Jul 19, 2011. 12:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Debt Ceiling Talk Collapse Would Be a Great Thing [View article]
    Asbytec, I openly marveled at the ingenuity of fiat system in one of my earlier posts. It's wonderful as long as it's not abused. "Independent central bank" system was supposed to solve that problem. But as we have learned by now, nobody lives in vacuum and every good system in human society gets corrupted in time.

    What you said is true as long as USD remains the world reserve currency. Perhaps this is where we differ -- it's obvious to me that the world has been trying hard to look for an alternative since 08, if not before that. And it's not wise to bet against human ingenuity and desperation, especially the latter.
    Jul 18, 2011. 11:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eyeing Short Potential as Titanium Faces a Multi-Pronged Assault [View article]
    BA would suffer in a global slowdown, especially given their dismal performance at the Paris Airshow. But what makes ATI stand out is its high valuation, which is not the case for BA. I only pick the low-hanging ones. ;>
    Jul 18, 2011. 06:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Debt Ceiling Talk Collapse Would Be a Great Thing [View article]
    Thanks for your thoughtful comments, Asbytec. I enjoy it, too.

    I agree with what you said about inflation. Demand-driven inflation is generally benign since it allocates capital/resource properly. But the QE2 inflation has been purely driven by excessive Fed printing, which causes mis-allocation of capital. So I don't understand why you said this is not driven by the quantity of fiat currency.

    Of course, a default, even a temporary, technical one, would cause some real pain to some people. But having the debt ceiling raised repeatedly in the past is not a rationalization for continuing it ad infinitum. It has to stop at some point despite of unpleasantness. Why should it be this time? We have the momentum for the first time ever, and it would not be wise to wait until the world finds an alternative. I agree it doesn't HAVE TO be this time. The choice of timing is arbitrary to a degree. But politics is arbitrary and momentum matters a lot.

    There's never a good time to cut spending, in the same way that there's never a good time for the Fed to tighten money supply or a drug dealer to cut off his sales channels. The relevant question is how much we're willing to pay to keep the high going.
    Jul 18, 2011. 03:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eyeing Short Potential as Titanium Faces a Multi-Pronged Assault [View article]
    Yes, industrial metals are very different from precious. Even in the inflationary scenario, industrials may not do well if the economy doesn't keep up in nominal terms.
    Jul 18, 2011. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eyeing Short Potential as Titanium Faces a Multi-Pronged Assault [View article]
    That depends on the global economy. TIE's valuation is much lower than ATI's. But if the recovery hope is dashed and Fed's hands are tied, which is likely, then no industrial metal smelter will be spared.
    Jul 18, 2011. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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