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Bo Peng

 
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  • Debt Ceiling Talk Collapse Would Be a Great Thing [View article]
    Both, I hope.

    No, I'm not a teabagger, either. But the game needs to be reset, somehow.
    Jul 18 01:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debt Ceiling Talk Collapse Would Be a Great Thing [View article]
    Should be "reply to asbytec". Sorry.
    Jul 18 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debt Ceiling Talk Collapse Would Be a Great Thing [View article]
    Pls see my reply to Bryanjo below. Thanks.
    Jul 18 12:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debt Ceiling Talk Collapse Would Be a Great Thing [View article]
    In a technical default of UST the recovery rate will be something like 99% because plenty of people will be willing to bet it will just be a delay of payments for a month or two. It would be almost a non-event. Don't be surprised if recovery is >100% for some earlier papers with high coupons.

    It's only due to lack of imagination and understanding the mind freezes at hearing the word "default".

    The threat to UST and the dollar is the long-term outlook of deficit and inflation. Deficit has been out of control since the Bush years. Inflation threat has been well demonstrated since QE2. But for now, we have a unique opportunity to clean our house because the world has not yet found an alternative for reserve currency and "risk-free" benchmark with sufficiently large liquidity. If we drag our feet until the world has found alternatives, then a technical default would be punished more severely.
    Jul 18 12:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Maybe this will be one less thing to replace around the house: The House approves a provision to save the 100-watt incandescent light bulb for at least a year. Legislation passed in 2007 would have effectively pushed the traditional bulbs off store shelves, starting with the 100-watt version next year.  [View news story]
    Good. No more problems to solve then. Shall we fire the Congress and save some money? Not that we need the money for anything useful since all problems are solved, but it sounds fun.
    Jul 15 07:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debt Ceiling Talk Collapse Would Be a Great Thing [View article]
    Anybody who still uses UST as the risk-free benchmark should not be trusted with even their own money.

    People's mind freezes at the unthinkable. "Default" is such a scary monster. I grew tired of scary monsters over the last three years. Then I remembered scary monsters are for kids. For once I'd like to actually see a scary monster before being scared into submission.
    Jul 15 01:42 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Institutions so powerful and considered so important that they require special support and different rules, the future of capitalism is at risk," says outgoing KC Fed chief Hoenig of the TBTF financials. He dismisses as "nonsense" the meme that tougher capital rules could hamper the economy.  [View news story]
    When can we have Hoenig as the Fed chairman?
    Jun 27 01:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Third Time's a Curse: QE3 and Lehman [View article]
    Now that Bernanke's pressie has ended, has the reality that there won't be QE3, at least not so easily, sunken in? Judging by the mkt so far (SP down 6, VIX down .5), still no. Under normal circumstances, unless and until inflation expectation goes near 1.5%, Fed won't do any significant easing. Now given the two QE's and the "bad" inflationary side-effects, Fed may not have the cover to act until it's closer to 1%. Five year inflation expectation is just about 2% at this point.
    Jun 22 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Third Time's a Curse: QE3 and Lehman [View article]
    No, I'd rather not know. Makes it harder to focus on the game. ;>
    Jun 19 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Third Time's a Curse: QE3 and Lehman [View article]
    Very nice and informative forum, Doug.
    Jun 19 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Third Time's a Curse: QE3 and Lehman [View article]
    I'm glad the sarcasm is not lost except for a few. Truth is I had been trying to tone down my cynicism but reality keeps outdoing it, which is the most outrageous thing ever as far as cynicism is concerned.
    Jun 17 09:14 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Third Time's a Curse: QE3 and Lehman [View article]
    As stated earlier, my GLD short is short-term. I'm long-term bullish on gold as the dollar is doomed. Before QE3 appears likely, I think gold is likely to retreat somewhat. And if there's a systemic shock that triggers massive unwind, the retreat may even be severe.

    In any case, I'd be cautious long gold now.
    Jun 16 05:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "There is a certain misreading of intentions," Olli Rehn tells Bloomberg, "we will not let the euro area face any kind of catastrophe." Duly noted. Markets have consistently underestimated the will and the power of EU leaders to push the denouement of this crisis into the future.  [View news story]
    I profess not to understand the FX mkt of late. Too much spec money obscuring fundamentals, and too many games. But I think the most likely trade now is the carry unwind -- strong USD and JPY, weak EUR and commod ccy's.
    Jun 16 07:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "There is a certain misreading of intentions," Olli Rehn tells Bloomberg, "we will not let the euro area face any kind of catastrophe." Duly noted. Markets have consistently underestimated the will and the power of EU leaders to push the denouement of this crisis into the future.  [View news story]
    No, it's the EU leaders who have been consistently underestimated the problems and overestimated their ability to manipulate and dictate the market.
    Jun 16 07:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "I paid a heavy price for complaining," says Julie Preuitt, who was marginalized and demoted at the Fort Worth SEC office after saying 2007 efforts at better examinations were superficial and self-defeating. Ms. Preuitt also raised alarms about Alan Stanford in 1997, 12 years before the SEC took any action.  [View news story]
    I feel sorry for this woman. Somebody left her out of the distribution list of the memo, which says "as an SEC staffer, your job is to sit on your ass, bite your time, and get a nice job in the banks/funds in two years."
    May 13 03:52 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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