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Bob Centrella, CFA

 
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  • Avanir Pharmaceuticals: Riding On A Non-Fundamental Catalyst [View article]
    Really? Another rehash of a short article. Get over it. If this drug is of so little value, why did the generic companies spend the time and money to challenge a "3rd-line" drug treatment?
    May 2 09:58 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questcor Questions Pile Up Again [View article]
    Nice timing. Very predictable. Don't options expire next week???
    Try adding some value for once in your predictable articles.
    Mar 14 04:12 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clearing The Air On Galena's Legal Woes [View article]
    Come on and give it up already. We all know what your agenda is and it really doesn't matter anymore. I don't read anything you write because it is meaningless and one-sided. The stock will react to real company news, good or bad. Let it happen and cut the short pumping. For you long pumpers, same thing.
    Mar 5 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lionsgate: Ender's Game Loses [View article]
    Pretty weak article. You should check your facts as others have suggested. Your valuation methodology is skimpy at best. Since Icahn sold his stake the stock is up 5-fold, so clearly management is doing something right contrary to your statement that they don't know how to build a franchise.
    Nov 4 03:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dirty Little Secret About Bonds - Is There A Coming Bond Armageddon? [View article]
    Most experienced investors will know most of this stuff. This is sort of a Bond 102 lesson to point out the risks of what is likely coming.
    Mar 21 05:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Is Not Overvalued Based On The Last 50 Years' History [View article]
    I only went back 50 years as I stated because that is my lifetime and in my mind that timeframe encompasses more of the real world we live in than the 50 years prior to that. I agree, the data is all over the place but I'm going on long-term averages.

    Not sure where you got your data but the current PE on the S&P 500 is about 14.8x which puts the PE below the historical average of 16.1x. (2012 earnings at $102/sh). Also, you are way off on the average 10-yr PE too. The average PE for the last ten year is right on the historical average at 16.2x.

    You should actually look at the data and then draw your conclusions.
    Feb 21 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell In May And Go Away? Well, Sort Of - Here's The Scoop [View article]
    My analysis of sector returns for June-Sep unfortunately doesn't offer much help. Almost all sectors produce negative price returns based on history. If you really only want to stay out of market for 3 months and risk minimal principal, aside from money market returns then short-term bond ETFs offering low yields may be a place to park the cash. ST muni funds another option. Be careful of closed-end funds that use leverage. If you want dividend paying stocks but with principal risk then typical defensive low-beta sectors like Consumer staples, Healthcare and utilities (some REITs too) at least offer some protection and a dividend. However, you have to be willing to bear the price risk and many of these stocks are near full value. Sorry, there is no easy answer. I like to use the summer to selectively build positions in good companies that have fallen back.
    May 9 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell In May And Go Away? Well, Sort Of - Here's The Scoop [View article]
    There were only 4 periods where the S&P was actually up each month June, July and August. It happened in 2009,06,03, & 1995. In each of those years the market rallied and finished strongly. So, it can happen but probablility is pretty low.
    May 9 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Carl Icahn / Lions Gate Melodrama: Who's Right? [View article]
    As a very longterm holder of LGF I keep wondering when I am going to realize some value for my shares. I've broken the investment rules and averaged down in price over the years only to see the price continue to fall. How do you value this company anymore as I am not sure "sum of the parts" even applies? Somebody asked what does Mr. Icahn know about running a studio. I ask what does Mr. Feltheimer and team know about running a company? He claims to be building value but based on the price of the stock over the years the mgmt. team seems to be destroying value. I do agree with Mr. Icahn in that I feel that as time passes by, technology seems to be making the company's assets less valuable. At some point we shareholders deserve to see some upside and I think Mr. Icahn sees value in this company and and wants to see it realized. "Having said that" (see Jerry Seinfeld in Curb your Enthusiasm), Mr. Icahn is always looking out for himself so as disappointed as I am about not realizing value over time, $6 is too cheap to be giving away shares. So, I too have mixed feelings about the ongoing saga. For now I will cling to the hope that there is value in this company and eventually it will be realized regardless of whoever ends up in control.
    Mar 16 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Reform the Financial System: Our 10 Point Proposal [View article]
    I think what you have proposed is a good start although I don't agree with taxing Credit unions (maybe there are better ways to regulate them) and requiring all MMF's trade at FMV (not all MMF's are created equal). However, the biggest part of any reform including yours is getting correct the regulatory powers of the single bank regulator so that it is effective yet not overly limiting to the point of hampering competitiveness. Given the various constituencies involved in trying to create this super-regulator I am not sure how it all can get worked out.
    Feb 3 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
10 Comments
27 Likes