Seeking Alpha

Bob Kirtley

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Bob Kirtley's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Precious Metals: Timing And Flexibility Is The Key To A Successful Trade [View article]
    The Swiss have voted 'NO' and now as we await the FOMC meeting, 17/18 December 2014, gold is down $14.00 and silver is down $0.50 and the HUI stands at 161, just 11 points above the all important 150 level.

    Listen for the Fed 'speak' regarding interest rates and when they might move as this will have a negative impact on the PM sector, should they be planned earlier than the market is expecting.
    Dec 15, 2014. 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opportunity In Beaten Down Junior Gold And Silver Miners During Tax Loss Selling Season? [View article]
    Ninja,

    If Janet Yellen hints at interest rates going up earlier than mid 2015 we could see a rapid decline in gold prices. We do expect another test the $1150/oz and if that fails to hold it will be a case of look out below.

    We would have shorted GDXJ at $30.00 but it just failed to get there and we didn't want to chase it, live to fight another day, as they say.
    Dec 13, 2014. 08:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opportunity In Beaten Down Junior Gold And Silver Miners During Tax Loss Selling Season? [View article]
    So until the bull returns stay in cash or look for short trades...
    Dec 13, 2014. 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opportunity In Beaten Down Junior Gold And Silver Miners During Tax Loss Selling Season? [View article]
    I'd like to be convinced but I'm not at the moment.

    Gold has rallied a $100 or so just recently and GDXJ has done nothing, so this leverage to the upside is taking its time about showing itself.

    The other point that I would like to throw in is that we keep talking about juniors when some of the companies in this portfolio had a $1Bln market cap until just recently. Approximately 20% of the funds are invested in 4 companies;
    TXG CN,
    SMF CN,
    CGG CN,
    PPP US, etc.

    their Market caps are $600mln to $1Bln.

    Im struggling to see how these are juniors, GDXJ looks more like a mixed bag to me.

    Anyway I would rather go short than long with this one right now.

    Take good care

    Dec 12, 2014. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opportunity In Beaten Down Junior Gold And Silver Miners During Tax Loss Selling Season? [View article]
    Yes indeed it could make a new low, but that wouldn't be a reason for us to buy it.

    If you plot gold against GDXJ on a 'perf' chart you will see that since 2010 gold has gained 10% and GDXJ has lost more than 70%, so there is no leverage here.
    Dec 11, 2014. 10:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opportunity In Beaten Down Junior Gold And Silver Miners During Tax Loss Selling Season? [View article]
    We have shorted GDXJ profitably 3 times as its performance has been woeful since its inception. Gold has moved up over the last month or so but GDXJ is still more or less where it was, no progress.
    We can't buy this one at the moment but we might short again.
    Take care
    Dec 11, 2014. 09:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Time To Accumulate Silver Wheaton [View article]
    The phrase 'Silver Wheaton is the best house in a bad neighborhood' sums it up for me - but I think it is better to avoid the neighborhood completely than take the risk at the moment.

    Back in the day we did a bit of a Q@A with SLW regarding the actual purchase costs which is often quoted as being around the $4.00 mark and they agreed with us it that it was closer to $7.00/$8.00/oz.

    Silver Wheaton Corporation: Purchase Costs

    http://bit.ly/1tOoY0L

    So, if silver continues to fall then their profit margins will suffer further erosion which is already being reflected via their dwindling dividend payments, $0.12, $0.10, $0.09, $0.07, $0.06, etc. Should silver suffer a serious sell-off then this stock could easily half from here, so its not for us at the moment, but its day will come.
    Dec 3, 2014. 06:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What It Really Costs To Mine Gold: The Allied Nevada Gold Q3 Edition [View article]
    Another good article - well done that man - I agree with the above comments in that it could be interesting if gold heads higher, conversely if gold falls it will suffer and maybe to the point of becoming an attractive takeover target.
    Nov 27, 2014. 05:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold, Silver And The Mining Sector: Prepare For A Severe Fall [View article]
    Today we closed 4 trades on XIV as the VIX hit our sell target of 12.
    We didn't make large profits but they were all profitable which helps to increase our cash pile.

    We have generated positive returns every year since inception. To celebrate this we are offering for a limited time only, a money back special to new subscribers.

    If you sign up for a 12 month subscription before Christmas, then we will refund the full cost of your subscription if our return on closed trades by December 1st 2015 is negative. If you are interested then please click this link: http://bit.ly/1vm6utF

    Enjoy your holiday and take care, Bob K
    Nov 26, 2014. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious Metals: Timing And Flexibility Is The Key To A Successful Trade [View article]
    If the Fed talk about hiking interest rates and the Swiss vote No - then that will be a double whammy for gold.
    Nov 20, 2014. 09:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold, Silver And The Mining Sector: Prepare For A Severe Fall [View article]
    If this rally can follow through into most of next week it will become a good opportunity to short this market down to sub $1100/oz by year end.

    We do expect it to go lower than $1100/oz in order to form a final bottom, but once under $1100/oz we would refrain from shorting and go through our list of quality stocks and look to position ourselves for the next upswing.

    Have a great weekend, Bob k
    Nov 14, 2014. 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold, Silver And The Mining Sector: Prepare For A Severe Fall [View article]
    Johnchew,

    If you can prove it scientifically we would like to see the proof; so if you can spare the time Im sure the SA readers would be very interested in what you have to say.
    Nov 14, 2014. 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold, Silver And The Mining Sector: Prepare For A Severe Fall [View article]
    We are also looking for that final capitulation and have frequently referred to previous falls as 'apitulations of sorts' but lacking in integrity - $1000/oz gold and $12.00/oz silver are on their way....
    Nov 13, 2014. 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss Gold Initiative And Why It May Affect Gold Prices [View article]
    Agreed - in this modern world of financial wizardry the outcome could well be something that we haven't thought of yet - time will tell
    Nov 11, 2014. 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold, Silver And The Mining Sector: Prepare For A Severe Fall [View article]
    Hi Steven,

    'subconsciously bullish' - me! you really are clutching at straws with this one.

    The point is that those who have successfully shorted this market over the last 3 years have more cash so they can scoop up more stock when the time comes.

    And we haven't missed the upturn, we are still looking for it, but we are not holding our breath.
    I take your point about the juniors, however, the last time I looked at GDXJ it included stocks with market caps of over $1Bln, so these are not juniors. Also in its 5 year existence it hasn't tripled once, its been pretty much down hill all the way. I doubt whether we will ever buy this one.
    If you want to trade the junior sector you have to do the work and identify the real deals in order to get those triples that you mention

    take care
    Nov 11, 2014. 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
636 Comments
284 Likes