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Bob Kirtley

 
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  • A Preview To Silver Wheaton's Q3 Earnings [View article]
    The author makes a good point here; if the earnings don't meet with analysts expectations then a sell-off tends to follow. Should silver prices drop below $15.00/oz and we believe that they will, then we may see the final capitulation that this sector needs.
    
    On the bright side to able to buy SLW at the old 2008 prices of sub $5.00 is a mouth watering thought. we are staying largely with cash and patiently waiting for such precious opportunities.
    Take care, Bob K
    Oct 22 06:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold, Silver And The Mining Sector: Prepare For A Severe Fall [View article]
    Good Day Steven,

    I admire tour tenacity for sticking with the HUI to go to 400 shortly, but it has been a terrible place to be over the last 3 years as it is now only worth a third of what it was worth back 2011. The next stop is 150 and then we can look back and say this sector was the 'Dog of this period'

    Apart from a few shorts and some puts on the weaker mining companies, which have done well for us, we keep the lions share of our funds in cash and should be in a good position financially when the pm stocks finally capitulate and present us with a wonderful buying opportunity.
    
    This has been a bumpy week all round but the main event this week is the words emanating from the Fed, what Janet Yellen says regarding the strength of the USD and interest rates is critical for all gold bugs. If interest rate rises remain on the cards and QE has ended then that will be a nail in gold's coffin driving it down to the $1000/oz level.

    Have a good weekend and keep batting, cheers, Bob K
    Oct 16 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold, Silver And The Mining Sector: Prepare For A Severe Fall [View article]
    First up: Don't stop your comments, we all depend to some extent on the opinions of others, its this sort of banta that makes sites like SA worthwhile.

    For the HUI to soar to 400 we need a catalyst and there doesn't appear to be one in the frame just yet. Should the US economy tank and a bout of deflation land upon us then the Fed may re-introduce some form of QE, but until then the pms will grind lower.

    Should the HUI get doen to 150 then we will have a super buying opportunity, but until then, its shorting and staying cash that is the better option.

    Take care
    Oct 12 05:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold, Silver And The Mining Sector: Prepare For A Severe Fall [View article]
    Team,

    When we wrote this article the HUI was at 221 and today its at 193, so that's a fall of 28 points or 12.67%

    - and we did say: "Finally, we need to see more in the way of all-round strength in this sector before we can implement an aggressive acquisitions strategy" so we were better off in cash than in pm stocks.

    Go back further to 2013 and the dollar outperformed the pms by a long way, clearly demonstrating the need to be flexible and not to be a 'perma' bull or bear.
    There may be a bounce near term, but 150 for the HUI is still on the cards, in my very humble opinion.
    Oct 6 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold, Silver And The Mining Sector: Prepare For A Severe Fall [View article]
    Good Day Steven,

    Well, I'm glad I have made somebody happy, you may indeed get a short term bounce here, but the trade will need to be fast as 150 is now in the frame for the HUI.

    As you know I am a bull, but of the opinion that this bear phase isn't done yet and therefore I'm not buying at the moment, but the HUI at 150 will certainly be tempting.
    Oct 5 04:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold, Silver And The Mining Sector: Prepare For A Severe Fall [View article]
    The HUI closed at 199 today, if the Dec lows don't hold then its all the way down to 150.
    Sep 29 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monetary Policy Weighs On Precious Metals [View article]
    Gold: The bewitching hour of a triple bottom lay just ahead; will gold bounce or is $1000/oz the next stop?
    Sep 22 08:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monetary Policy Weighs On Precious Metals [View article]
    Peter,

    We may be close to the 'end of the illusion' but we are not there yet and in the meantime the dollar goes up and gold goes down.
    Sep 21 08:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monetary Policy Weighs On Precious Metals [View article]
    I can remember when the base rate in the UK was at around 18% and the UK exports were booming.

    The Feds mandate is jobs and inflation, not the strength of the dollar, although I agree they are related.

    As investors we have to take a stand and make decisions based on what we see as the big picture - our view of that picture is that the PMs will trade lower and so we look to trade accordingly.
    Sep 18 05:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: The Thin End Of The Wedge [View article]
    We'll need to take a close look at the detail of the ECB's QE to see exactly what it does in terms of effect on the markets, remember that the Feds QE3 didn't do anything for gold, unlike QE2 and QE1.

    This is just one of my quirks but if we look at a chart of the HUI we can see that it left a gap on the way up in June, which always makes me nervous as the graph tends to return and back fill the gap, which it is now doing.
    Sep 4 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: The Thin End Of The Wedge [View article]
    This week we get the US job numbers and an announcement from the ECB, so there may be a surprise in the bag, otherwise where is the catalyst for gold?
    Sep 3 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What It Really Costs To Mine Gold: The Allied Nevada Gold Second Quarter Edition [View article]
    Its a bit similar to buying an antique car; the owner can advertise it as having spent $25K on the re-build, but the asking price is only $18K. If you are the prospective buyer you are interested in what it is going to cost you and what you think it is worth to you.

    Its nice to know what the rebuild cost was, but that's all.

    Nevertheless this is a good article so thanks for doing it.
    Aug 18 05:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold's Advance Is Being Capped By The Dead Cat Dollar's Recovery [View article]
    Trader8877,

    I don't know if the US vaults are full or empty, but it does bother me that the powers that be are so reluctant to carry out an independent audit. Germany wanting to take possession of their own gold makes sense to me, but the difficulty in getting it delivered is a tad odd to say the least. I think it was in the early 70s that the French asked for their gold and sent a battleship to New York to collect it. Germany should insist on having their gold returned to them, however, there may be a good reason that they can't insist on it happening, such as an empty vault.
    As for manipulation, well there are some odd things happening such as the dumping of large amounts of metal in times of thin volume, so the result is a dramatically lower price, could be manipulation, panic selling, pressure to raise cash quickly for a margin call in another sector maybe- I dunno. cheers, Bob K
    Aug 3 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold's Advance Is Being Capped By The Dead Cat Dollar's Recovery [View article]
    Trader8877,

    You did indeed say in your humble opinion - I need to take more care, cheers, Bob K
    Aug 3 02:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold's Advance Is Being Capped By The Dead Cat Dollar's Recovery [View article]
    Trader8877,

    Just about all of the super bulls think that the bottom is in and therefore their mantra is buy, buy, buy, but some have been saying that all through this bear phase which has been a disaster especially for those holding stocks, the HUI is down from 630 to 237.
    Aug 2 09:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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