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Bob Kirtley

 
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  • Precious Metals: Timing And Flexibility Is The Key To A Successful Trade [View article]
    If the Fed talk about hiking interest rates and the Swiss vote No - then that will be a double whammy for gold.
    Nov 20, 2014. 09:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold, Silver And The Mining Sector: Prepare For A Severe Fall [View article]
    If this rally can follow through into most of next week it will become a good opportunity to short this market down to sub $1100/oz by year end.

    We do expect it to go lower than $1100/oz in order to form a final bottom, but once under $1100/oz we would refrain from shorting and go through our list of quality stocks and look to position ourselves for the next upswing.

    Have a great weekend, Bob k
    Nov 14, 2014. 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold, Silver And The Mining Sector: Prepare For A Severe Fall [View article]
    Johnchew,

    If you can prove it scientifically we would like to see the proof; so if you can spare the time Im sure the SA readers would be very interested in what you have to say.
    Nov 14, 2014. 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold, Silver And The Mining Sector: Prepare For A Severe Fall [View article]
    We are also looking for that final capitulation and have frequently referred to previous falls as 'apitulations of sorts' but lacking in integrity - $1000/oz gold and $12.00/oz silver are on their way....
    Nov 13, 2014. 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss Gold Initiative And Why It May Affect Gold Prices [View article]
    Agreed - in this modern world of financial wizardry the outcome could well be something that we haven't thought of yet - time will tell
    Nov 11, 2014. 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold, Silver And The Mining Sector: Prepare For A Severe Fall [View article]
    Hi Steven,

    'subconsciously bullish' - me! you really are clutching at straws with this one.

    The point is that those who have successfully shorted this market over the last 3 years have more cash so they can scoop up more stock when the time comes.

    And we haven't missed the upturn, we are still looking for it, but we are not holding our breath.
    I take your point about the juniors, however, the last time I looked at GDXJ it included stocks with market caps of over $1Bln, so these are not juniors. Also in its 5 year existence it hasn't tripled once, its been pretty much down hill all the way. I doubt whether we will ever buy this one.
    If you want to trade the junior sector you have to do the work and identify the real deals in order to get those triples that you mention

    take care
    Nov 11, 2014. 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold, Silver And The Mining Sector: Prepare For A Severe Fall [View article]
    Steven,

    I can agree with some of the above, however, as we see it we need to get the big picture right before we do anything. The dollar is not going up due to the other currencies in the basket all being a lot weaker, the Europeans and the Japanese both want their currencies lower and the US has stopped QE.

    Gold still looks good for a $1000.00/oz to us so we will be going very gently and I doubt we will go long just yet, but that opportunity is coming, but not yet.

    Today we closed a short trade on GDXJ for a profit of 35%, which is no biggie but it all helps to boost our cash pile in readiness for a rally. That's the third time we have shorted GDXJ profitably so its been good to us. Again its recognizing that we are a bear phase and as so we must trade accordingly.
    This might be the 'final capitulation' that we have warned about for some time and as you rightly say we wont it has ended until we come out of the other side. This is something we do all day so it will interesting to see just what happens when we put our necks and our hard earned cash on the block, when we declare this bear over.
    Take care and keep in touch, bob K
    Nov 10, 2014. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss Gold Initiative And Why It May Affect Gold Prices [View article]
    Charles,

    Why would they want it appreciate, that would hit their exports and cause unemployment.
    Nov 10, 2014. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold, Silver And The Mining Sector: Prepare For A Severe Fall [View article]
    We've made more money going short over the last few years than we have going long, buying the dips in bear market is like death by a 1000 cuts, the stock may well bounce, but the bounce is short lived as evidenced by HUI
    Nov 9, 2014. 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold, Silver And The Mining Sector: Prepare For A Severe Fall [View article]
    If you think that gold is going back down, then it also an opportunity to go short...
    Nov 9, 2014. 02:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold, Silver And The Mining Sector: Prepare For A Severe Fall [View article]
    tawse57,

    I think it was a combination of events rather just the one with Russian tanks. We have seen this sort of thing before without a corresponding move in gold. Gold and silver have been hammered for in recent years and we do get the occasional bounce back along the way. If it were the Russian tank movements then I would expect gold to subside next week - but in the short term who really knows?
    Nov 8, 2014. 06:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold, Silver And The Mining Sector: Prepare For A Severe Fall [View article]
    For GDXJ to get back to its starting price of $90 it needs to increase 4 fold and to get back to its peak of $150 it needs to increase 6 fold. There is no guarantee that gold will rally again any time soon and remember that GDXJ may never recover. The juniors that are strapped for cash could well go to the wall, putting a dent into its value.

    "Almost no one wants to admit being long commodity producers" - the super bulls have been saying buy, buy and buy again for the last 4 years.
    Sure we will check back in - this is an interesting problem that we wrestle with.
    Take care, Bob k
    Nov 7, 2014. 06:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss Gold Initiative And Why It May Affect Gold Prices [View article]
    Point taken.
    Nov 7, 2014. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold, Silver And The Mining Sector: Prepare For A Severe Fall [View article]
    Steven,
    Some strange behavior today; it will take me a little while to digest it before I place further trades. You are right though in that one swallow doesn't make a summer, we need a bit more than a good day to say this bear phase is over.
    GDXJ has been hammered and looks like it is in free fall, it has lost value in 2011, 2012, 2013 and is down on 2014, still not for us.
    But Steven I do admire your optimism, but your trading account, not so much.
    Take care, Bob K
    Nov 7, 2014. 03:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Swiss Gold Initiative And Why It May Affect Gold Prices [View article]
    gnar,

    Thank you for this, another one of our colleagues commented as follows:

    "It all boils down to jobs. The voters in the referendum won’t vote “Yes” if they feel that a “Yes” vote would take away their source of income."

    As exports are 52% of the country’s GDP then the Swiss wouldn't want a higher priced Franc.
    Nov 7, 2014. 01:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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