Bob Kirtley

Long/short equity, special situations, precious metals
Bob Kirtley
Long/short equity, special situations, Precious metals
Contributor since: 2007
james,
You might want to factor in the BOJ move to negative rates - its giving the USD a boost and has capped gold's rally.
take care, Bob K
Before we get overly excited about the gold miners recent jump take a look at the chart of the HUI and notice the gaps that it made on the way up - in my experience the HUI will return to back fill these gaps - my thought for the day!
Agreed - it is the small matter of timing a phased-in entry and not following the herd that also counts..cheers, bob K
Good Day Team,
What drives the Mines - Commodities or the Market
http://bit.ly/20idntH
Take care these are dangerous waters, Bob K
Team,
The HUI closed at 100.70 today - still a case of look out below as the title says:
Gold Stocks: This Bear Phase Isn't Over Yet, the HUI has now lost around 50% of its value since we wrote this piece back in February 2015.
Take great care these are treacherous waters, cheers, Bob K
Steve,
The USD is going well today at 99.11 and gold has been hit once again, the stocks are down and ABX is down 5.66% - not looking good.
Hindsight - if only, but I haven't got it, so just gotta carry on best we can,
take good care, Bob K
Steve,
The usd is still flirting with the '100' level so we might know soon if it can break it and stay there or not.
Gold couldn't hold $1100/oz either so there we go....
Go gently we are not out the woods yet, Bob K
Inflation was rampant back then, gold went up and the interest rate hikes were behind the curve until they got to around 19%.
There is very little inflation at the moment so no need for too many hikes and no need for gold to go up.
take care, bob K
US Jobs at 292k - higher usd - lower gold, poss rate hike Jan/March - need to be careful this is a tricky juncture to negotiate.
go gently Bob K
PS: I'm going fishing for a few days so will be off line, see ya next week some time.
Steve,
Gold is up today so you will be a Happy Bunnie as for me well I'm doing a lot of work but not moving yet..... time will tell as they say.
Take good care, Bob K
Steve,
We can go a long way back and dig up all sorts of metrics to support any given position, however, recent history shows us that the mere threat of a rate hike hurt gold badly.
We are not trading in the past and things are never the same as they once were.
Take care, Bob K
A good jobs print in January and the Fed could hike again in March. There could possibly be 2-3 hikes this year and they will add downward pressure to gold.
go gently, Bob K
Team,
Gold at $1050.00/oz - taking it on the chin as the USD gains strength standing at 99.26 - this Christmas we'll need to do a fair amount of due diligence in between the festivities.
Stay patient, Bob K
Team,
The dollar is now up to 98.90 and gold is at $1066.00/oz - gold's move would appear to be faltering under the pressure of the USD
go gently, Bob K
Steve, Not everyone, you have many who agree with your view that gold will rally on a rate rise and indeed continue to rise even if the dollar goes higher.
Anyway so far so good; the dollar is lower and gold is higher as I listen to Janet's speech.
take good care, Bob K
Team,
Its all eyes on Janet Yellen now; will gold rally, will it fall....... the speculation builds... well we will soon know.....
Try and relax a tad and let the falling knife land where it sees fit.
cheers, Bob K
Steven,
The chart for ABX shows the higher lows getting to $7.5 then it fell back and then tried again and got to $7.5 and then fell back, the sequence has been broken as it is going sideways..Bob K
Team,
Barrick Gold (ABX) down 9% today; as we keep saying Be Patient.
Steven,
The dollar is higher now than it was when the article was written.
We need reasons for the dollar to fall, the expectation of it going higher isn't a reason for it to go down.
go gently it will be a rough old week,
Bob K
james,
A well thought out set of comments regarding sentiment. But as we all know we cannot place a trade on just one indicator.
Take backwardation as an example; whenever that appears there are a number of commentators who leap in and say gold has got to go up, but it never goes up very far.
The conclusion in this article, which was posted in February, was to stay in dollars and dollars have outperformed gold this year so Im happy to have the lions share of our funds in dollars, as we have cash to support our acquisition program when the time comes.
To move now, just before a FOMC meeting is taking a bit of a gamble in my view, so Im going to continue being patient and re-assess when the dust settles.
As for the dollar going down, well the other major currencies are still in the race for the bottom making it difficult for the dollar to head south and a rate hike will give it a boost, so maybe hang fire for a little while longer.
go gently, Bob K
Thanks - found it and will get it sorted, Bob K
Market_maker,
Did you sign-up for 'stock trader' or for the skoptions trading service?
Did you use the name Market_Maker?
Did you use PayPal?
I'm checking through it at our end but can't find your application.
You can contact me on bob@gold-prices.biz and I'll follow it up,
cheers, Bob K
Market_Maker,
Well there are lots of things that when looked at in isolation don't make a lot of sense, I know I cringe when I look back..... try and predict the bottom or as close as - that's the job at hand,
have a good one, bob K
Steven,
You got it: "That is why it is more lucrative to buy near the beginning of a bull market" agreed - but Im not convinced that we are there yet. If I buy GDXJ for $10.00 instead of $20.00 then your arithmetic comes into play once more and the profits will be substantially greater.
Getting the big picture right is the key and this bear isn't done yet.
take care, Bob K
An overdue correction by gold and a good one at that accompanied with a certain amount of short covering - but is it the real deal?
Go gently, Bob K
No action Mario Draghi causes volatility, Euro up - USD down - Gold up, but only just...... next stop the US Jobs print.
Steven, I have to disagree;
1. The most profitable move in a bull market comes at the end when it spikes and not the beginning.
2. The higher lows were shattered last month just look at GDXJ - still below $20.00.
You can't count on a week of higher lows for the next rally.
The bear isn't done yet, although we are getting close,
take good care, Bob K
Gold is at $1050/oz an falling; BE PATIENT and wait,
cheers, Bob K
Gold is at $1050/oz an falling; BE PATIENT and wait
The inverse relationship between gold and the USD is still in place in our very humble opinion
The US Dollar Outplays Gold Year To Date 02 December 2015
http://bit.ly/1QSOO47
take good care, Bob K
The USD is holding above the '100' level at 100.17, its a slim margin but it is hanging in there for now. Gold bounced back a tad today to put on about $8.00/oz, it does need to push on and get above the $1080.00/oz level in order to stop the rot.
Have a good one, Bob K
Team,
I wasn't expecting such an emotional theme in your comments but it would appear that you have all had enough of the manipulation game. You are correct in that the paper market does rule despite the demand in the physical market, but as we have seen there are new players in this game as we eveidenced by the opening of the gold exchange in China, maybe one day that form of trading will be the dominant one.
Take great care these are treacherous waters, cheers, Bob K