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Bob Kirtley  

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  • Gold Stocks: This Bear Phase Isn't Over Yet [View article]
    7411931,

    Im not asking anyone to sell their gold mining shares but for those of us with the lions share of our funds in cash I still think a little more patience will be rewarding, as I believe that the bottom is still ahead of us.
    Mar 26, 2015. 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks: This Bear Phase Isn't Over Yet [View article]
    Despite all of the above civil unrest gold only gained $10.20 which it can do on quiet days, so this new turmoil hasn't done very much for gold. Also note that the dollar went up today, some 0.39%, which suggests that the dollar is a 'safe haven' too.
    Mar 26, 2015. 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks: This Bear Phase Isn't Over Yet [View article]
    "It is also important to remember that the components of GDX and GDXJ have frequently quadrupled and quintupled......"

    If that's so then why is GDXJ in the basement? Maybe it would be better to identify those high flyers and invest in them alone.
    Mar 26, 2015. 02:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks: This Bear Phase Isn't Over Yet [View article]
    You are looking at tiny timescale for GDXJ - its $4.00 above its all time low and $126.00 below its all time high and has been going down hill since 2011- its a candidate for Dog of the Year.
    Mar 25, 2015. 09:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks: This Bear Phase Isn't Over Yet [View article]
    Steven,If the Greeks default then we are looking at about $380 billion in loans that wont be repaid. That isn't the point; the point is that those who made the loans considered then to be performing assets and have gone on to lever them 20 times or so, therefore the hit caused by default is considerable.

    France is having enormous difficulties and this is reflected by the polls showing the'Front National' doing so well. If they are elected then Le Penn, the leader, will ditch the Euro as she has already stated, if that happens the Euro will be in all kinds of trouble.

    In the UK UKIP are also doing well and should they get enough MPs elected in May they will force an 'in/out' referendum on staying in the EU.

    Spain is also having a hard time with 50% of the 16-24 year olds unemployed.

    Europe is in a mess; possibly too big to be saved by the recent announcement of QE by the ECB.
    But you correct in that GDXJ has been one of my favourites, as a 'short' which we have done 3 times and made a profit and those dollars have increased in strength much more than gold, silver or the miners. http://bit.ly/17UodLA
    Go gently
    Mar 25, 2015. 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks: This Bear Phase Isn't Over Yet [View article]
    I say No because the bottom isn't in yet;
    There hasn't been a final capitulation;
    Europe is falling apart and will take the Euro with it, thus sending the dollar higher.
    Go gently.
    Mar 24, 2015. 01:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks: This Bear Phase Isn't Over Yet [View article]
    Steven,

    If you are saying that your investment in GDXJ is down 50% - 70% that would make sense to me as it has been in free fall for a long time and you have been averaging down. (Maybe I've missed it but I have not seen you give a 'sell' signal so I am assuming that you are still all in.)

    Now to state that anyone who has traded the likes of GDXJ will be in the same position is a tad unfair as you are well aware that we have traded GDXJ 3 times and made a profit http://bit.ly/17UodLA and I imagine that there are many other SA readers who have also made money trading this vehicle.
    Take care and beware this suckers rally, the bear is still out there, Bob K
    Mar 20, 2015. 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks: This Bear Phase Isn't Over Yet [View article]
    Steven,

    I agree with much of what say above but its the question of timing that bothers me. I know you are confident that the bottom is in and you are almost fully invested, but I haven't got that sort of confidence just yet, although I think we could see a bottom this year.
    I'm currently residing down here on the bottom of the world and can tell you that Australia is having a struggle with commodity prices being hammered, iron ore, etc, so without a decent recovery in China things could stay that way for some time.
    When I look at the Baltic Dry Index and see that it is at its lowest since 1985 that tends to confirm for me that there's not a lot of goods moving in either direction, which suggests that we are still in recession and ergo commodities are in less demand.http://bit.ly/1CsZb8U.html

    Don't mean to sit on the fence but his bear isn't done yet so I'll be patient for a little longer.

    Take care, Bob k
    Mar 17, 2015. 06:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks: This Bear Phase Isn't Over Yet [View article]
    So long as you are entertained then its been worthwhile, however, we do make money as our track record shows.
    All the best, Bob
    Mar 16, 2015. 09:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks: This Bear Phase Isn't Over Yet [View article]
    He's even more bearish than I am at the moment, although he does say that if gold holds here it could rally back to $2000.00/oz
    Mar 16, 2015. 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks: This Bear Phase Isn't Over Yet [View article]
    Nice one - nobody is perfect as they say and of course we do it wrong from time to time.
    Mar 15, 2015. 10:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last Time Gold Miners Did This Was... Never [View article]
    I agree with the being 'patient' element and that the mining sector has been hit hard, but Im not prepared to invest just yet. The bottom will only recognized after the fact so until then we would be taking a punt as they say.

    The USD is a strong headwind against gold and the sentiment is in the gutter; these are two powerful forces for gold to battle.

    Another very good article though and thanks to Hebba for compiling it.

    Go gently, Bob
    Mar 15, 2015. 09:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks: This Bear Phase Isn't Over Yet [View article]
    Over the last 3 years some of the biggest names in this industry have called the bottom and have been wrong. They are still perma-bulls and to them the only way is up, sadly that isn't about to happen any time soon. Although we are getting close and have urged our subscribers to build cash in readiness for the opportunities as and when they present themselves.

    As for gold influencing the Fed this is something we very much doubt, after all the whole of the gold sector is worth less than some of the individual companies on the NYSE.

    GDXJ has been good to us as a short trade, a vehicle that started life at $90.00 went to $150.00 and now trades at $22, losing value for the last 4 years, nope this one is not for us.

    Take care, Bob
    Mar 15, 2015. 06:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks: This Bear Phase Isn't Over Yet [View article]
    The main event this week is Janet Yellen's speech and its affect on gold. Any indication that interest rates rises are coming sooner rather then later will hamper gold's ability to go higher. The US Dollar is still on a roll so in dollar terms gold will head lower until the dollar's rally exhausts itself.
    Mar 14, 2015. 11:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks: This Bear Phase Isn't Over Yet [View article]
    Gold is hanging on in there at $1151/oz and its chart is oversold so we might see a bit of a bounce, but make no mistake about it, gold is on its way to $1000/oz and when it gets there I'll change my tune, until then I'm happy to be in dollars as they are outperforming the precious metals handsomely.
    Mar 12, 2015. 12:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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