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Bob Kirtley  

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  • Gold Stocks: This Bear Phase Isn't Over Yet [View article]
    We don't disagree too much with the above comments other than a 'substantial percentage decline' which it has been, but is it over now? - we don't think so and so we will wait in dollars, which are up today by 1.14%, fantastic move for a currency.
    http://on.mktw.net/nXZ4xE

    We still expect GDXJ to half from here, but its not really for us, we prefer to do the work and pick out individual stocks, build a basket of them and then pull the trigger when the time comes. There is lot of work involved as a week is a long time in precious metals and things do change rather fast, but there we go

    Take care
    Feb 26, 2015. 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks: This Bear Phase Isn't Over Yet [View article]
    The argument of 'if it were to regain only half of its decline from its December 2010 peak then you would more than triple your money' is not a reason to invest, you can apply that to just about anything.

    GDXJ opened at $90 went to $150 and is now $26 - a candidate for the wooden spoon so far.

    Still not for us, unless it pops above $30 then we might short it again.
    Feb 25, 2015. 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks: This Bear Phase Isn't Over Yet [View article]
    Yes indeed we don't have long to wait - just a few short months.

    However, long term the miners have been a poor investment :If you had invested in the HUI in 2003 for the long term you would have made precisely nothing - it was 150 then and it is 150 now.

    We like GDXJ as we have shorted it 3 times and made a profit, thus boosting our war chest. As of today GDXJ owes you money as this bear continues to inflict damage on the bulls. GDXJ will half from here, maybe trade in single digits.... 
    Feb 23, 2015. 09:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks: This Bear Phase Isn't Over Yet [View article]
    Disagree that either have bottomed and remember you have been saying the bottom is in for a long time now only to see this sector go lower.

    The perma-bulls are still trumpeting gold with the same old mantra that it is going up and the bottom is in, so they haven't changed and have been bullish all through this bearish period which is now 3 years in the making.

    We do intend to buy, but not at these prices as they can half from here.

    Most money is made in the final phase of a bull market and not the initial phase so there is no rush to buy at the moment, especially as the pm's are heading lower. Also remember that bulls, such as your good self are already 'all-in' and therefore no longer have any influence over this market in terms of buying power.

    By June we will see the new bottom and you will know its the bottom by the shear amount of damage that has been done to this sector.

    So we'll keep touch as we both have a completely opposite stance on this matter and let the cards were they may.
    Take care and have a good one, Bob K
    Feb 23, 2015. 03:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks: This Bear Phase Isn't Over Yet [View article]
    Gold, silver and the miners down again this week - dollar up.

    Gold will trade below $1000/oz this year - then we will look to buy as we want to avoid the carnage that is beginning to rip the pm sector to shreds.
    Feb 21, 2015. 10:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks: This Bear Phase Isn't Over Yet [View article]
    The USD went down today and gold went down a lot harder - a challenge of the previous lows in the precious metals sectors now on the cards.
    Feb 17, 2015. 07:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks: This Bear Phase Isn't Over Yet [View article]
    GDX started 2014 with even more gusto than 2015 and finished the year lower - no-one was chasing it in 2014 and this rally in 2015 is spluttering to say the least.
    Feb 16, 2015. 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks: This Bear Phase Isn't Over Yet [View article]
    Good Day Steven,

    I do admire your positive approach to the gold market you are certainly braver than I am at the moment. We are both bulls on gold so I guess our differences are all about timing. You think the bottom is in and I don't.
    You recently mentioned that you were down to 6% in cash such was your confidence in gold which made me jump a little. As I see it you and a number of other perma-bulls are now just about all-in so there is little in the way of investment cash left in the wallet, so future prices will not be effected by your good selves as you don't have the cash.
    As for the US dollar, well it has been overbought at least until recently. The RSI is now at 55 and the MACD is heading south which has taken some of fizz out of it for now. However the dollar has been the place to run to over this turbulent period.
    In 2013 and 2014 the dollar outperformed gold by a long way and we could be in for a repeat of the same this year, the dollar is up 18% and gold is down 28% over that period, so those who held gold are already in a hole when compared to those in cash
    Time will tell as they say but we have seen nothing to change our opinion that precious metals are going lower before they go higher.
    Take good care, Bob K
    Feb 16, 2015. 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks: This Bear Phase Isn't Over Yet [View article]
    This might be of interest to you:

    Rick Rule: "We Haven’t Seen Capitulation In Natural Resources Yet"

    http://bit.ly/1A5tZbr

    cheers, Bob K
    Feb 13, 2015. 07:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could QE4 Be The Catalyst For Precious Metals In 2015? [View article]
    The U.S. economy grew at a 5% in the 3rd quarter, fastest in 11 years, this could herald a rate rise sooner than expected, thus hampering gold's progress.

    The HUI is only 3 points above the support at 150 and not looking great, so it could fall below this level and if it does its a case of look out below as the juniors wont be saved.

    Go gently the bear isn't dead yet.
    Dec 23, 2014. 09:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opportunity In Beaten Down Junior Gold And Silver Miners During Tax Loss Selling Season? [View article]
    Jeb,

    The HUI has dropped to 155 - tax loss selling could see the '150' level resistance broken in the next few days, GDXJ down 7% today to close at $22.23, still not my cup of tea.
    Take care
    Dec 22, 2014. 08:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opportunity In Beaten Down Junior Gold And Silver Miners During Tax Loss Selling Season? [View article]
    Jeb,

    The thing is that it is now a question of when and not if the Fed will raise rates and this casts a shadow over the markets, particularly gold as an increase in rates will probably strengthen the dollar and hamper gold's progress in dollar terms.
    The dollar is gaining in strength and I suspect will continue to do so as we approach each meeting of the Fed in 2015, yes it may be later in the year but the market perception is that it is coming and some will talk about coming sooner rather than later.
    As you know Im not a fan of GDXJ other than it has been a useful vehicle by which to short the market, but thats just my humble view.
    Take care and have a good un,
    Bob K
    Dec 21, 2014. 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious Metals: Timing And Flexibility Is The Key To A Successful Trade [View article]
    The Swiss have voted 'NO' and now as we await the FOMC meeting, 17/18 December 2014, gold is down $14.00 and silver is down $0.50 and the HUI stands at 161, just 11 points above the all important 150 level.

    Listen for the Fed 'speak' regarding interest rates and when they might move as this will have a negative impact on the PM sector, should they be planned earlier than the market is expecting.
    Dec 15, 2014. 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opportunity In Beaten Down Junior Gold And Silver Miners During Tax Loss Selling Season? [View article]
    Ninja,

    If Janet Yellen hints at interest rates going up earlier than mid 2015 we could see a rapid decline in gold prices. We do expect another test the $1150/oz and if that fails to hold it will be a case of look out below.

    We would have shorted GDXJ at $30.00 but it just failed to get there and we didn't want to chase it, live to fight another day, as they say.
    Dec 13, 2014. 08:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opportunity In Beaten Down Junior Gold And Silver Miners During Tax Loss Selling Season? [View article]
    So until the bull returns stay in cash or look for short trades...
    Dec 13, 2014. 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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