Bob McTeer is a Distinguished Fellow at the National Center for Policy Analysis (NCPA), covering macro-economic issues, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, tax and education policy. NCPA is a nonprofit, nonpartisan market-oriented public policy institute headquartered in Dallas, Texas, with offices in Washington, D.C. See www.ncpa.org. Prior to joining the NCPA in January 2007, Bob was Chancellor of the Texas A&M University System from November 4, 2004 through November 22, 2006. The Texas A&M University System is composed of 9 universities, 7 state agencies and a statewide health science center. The system has approximately 25,000 employees and budgets totaling $2.5 billion. Its universities have approximately 102,000 students, including about 45,000 at its flagship, Texas A&M University in College Station. Before becoming Chancellor of the Texas A&M University System, Bob had a 36-year career with the Federal Reserve System, including 14 years as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). While at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in the 1970s, Bob taught economics as an adjunct faculty member at the University of Richmond and Virginia Commonwealth University. While he ran the Richmond Fed’s Baltimore Branch in the 1980s, Bob taught two classes per semester in the evening program of The Johns Hopkins University. Bob got his B.B.A. and Ph.D. in economics from the University of Georgia and taught there for two years before joining the Fed in 1968. His graduate education was financed by a National Defense Education Act (NDEA) fellowship. He holds an honorary doctorate in the Humane Letters from Austin College. Bob serves on the Boards of Directors the Westwood Holdings Group, and Refocus Group. He is a former member of the Board of Overseers of UGA’s Terry College of Business, where he was named Distinguished Alumnus in 1991. He is past president of the Association of Private Enterprise Education, a national association of free enterprise scholars and others who advocate market solutions to public policy problems, and a former board member of the National Council on Economic Education. Bob was featured as a Texas Legend in Business in 2004 by the Texas Cable News Network. As a Fed policymaker, Bob gained a national reputation as an independent voice, or maverick, dissenting from the Alan Greenspan majority twice in 1999 and once in 2002. His dissents and his outspoken views and plain talk got him the labels “Lone Star Loner” and “The Lonesome Dove.” He says he’s been called worse. Bob’s free-market views in general and his vigorous support of free-trade in particular, gave the Dallas Fed its reputation during his tenure as “The Free-Enterprise Fed.” Bob is a CNBC contributor. He has written numerous opinion pieces for the Wall Street Journal and other publications and has spoken worldwide. Bob’s poetry and vignettes have been featured twice on the Dallas Community News Network. You may find these and other articles and speeches on www.BobMcTeer.com.
Vaughn Cordle has 30 years of experience in the airline industry as an equity analyst and consultant to various institutional investors, money management firms, suppliers, and labor groups. Vaughn founded AirlineForecasts, LLC and managed airline and transportation-related investment research for over 10 years. He has attended executive education programs at Kellogg, Wharton, and other business schools and is considered one of the leading experts in the airline industry. He is also a Airline Transport Pilot with the following ratings, licenses and awards: LRJET/CE500/A320/B727/B737/B747/B757/B767/B777, Gold Seal Instructor, Flight Engineer, 31 World and National speed records.
Founding CFO, The US-Russia Investment Fund, Former Corporate Finance Head for Central and Eastern Europe, Citibank NY, Founder and CEO, River Capital Management, investment manager for Russia-based securities. Managed investments in bonds,listed equities, private equity. Senior Advisor to the MICEX, Moscow's first stock exchange. Managing Director, The Collectors Fund LLC Certificate, Harriman Institute for Advanced Studies of the former Soviet Union, Columbia; B.A. Wesleyan University.
I have been an individual investor for 25 years. I have also worked in Risk Management at several Fortune 100 banks over the last 15 years, and have a PhD in Economics and an MBA in Finance.
For this website all you need to know about me is that:
I am an interest rate junkie; Homer and Sylla's "A History of Interest Rates" is a touchstone.
I have a passion for macro economics; William Greider's "Secrets of the Temple, How the Federal Reserve Runs the Country" is another touchstone.
The first house that I built in 1978 sold for $28,000 that year and is assessed today, 12/9/2013, at $522,500.
I got out of the housing development business in 2005.
For more about me see www.gotothomas1.com
Full-time Investor, and frequent speculator.
Focus on US Stocks and Real Estate.
Degree in Economics and Finance.
Over 35 years of economic analysis and active investing experience. Retired Financial Services CEO (company had $2 Billion in financial assets).
Macroeconomic conditions and cycle progression are the foundation of my investment strategy. I evaluate the macro trend, and then select investments that will benefit from that trend, shifting the mix as the cycle progresses. Earnings growth is the sustainable fuel for investment gains. So, I look to position my portfolio accordingly.
I stay fully invested during the rising tide of a growing economy. I use leverage until the expansion shows signs of constraints and exhaustion. Rising input costs (wages, materials, energy, interest rates) eventually squeeze corporate profits, making growth less feasible. When I see evidence of a coming recession combined with weakness in the market, I exit my equity positions, reduce my real estate holdings, and shift to the safety of cash and treasury bonds. After the market slides deeply, and after the panic reaches headline proportions, I begin to reinvest as I anticipate or see evidence of the market bottom. I successfully avoided the 2001-2002 and the 2008 bear markets, while being fully invested for the bull markets around those declines.
In prior cycles I purchased individual stocks. However, during this bull market I am making heavy use of ETFs (including Sector ETFs). This is much less work, but results in more average returns. I do purchase some individual company stocks when I think the company will perform better than the average in its industry sector. I do not sell short, and rarely use options.
My portfolio is about half market tracking. I also use sector rotation, selected specific companies, modest margin debt, and 3x leveraged ETFs, within the rising cycle trend to magnify and outperform the average trend. I also adjust the size of my market exposure based on market conditions, and historic patterns.
My gross investment asset allocation target is roughly 70% stock, and 30% real estate (rentals). Current Stock Portfolio Mix (Sep 2016): 47% Broad Market Tracking (VTI, SPY, RSP, QQQ, VB...),17% Homebuilders and related, 15% Consumer Discretionary (VCR), 08% Industrials (XLI), 05% Berkshire Hathaway, 08% all other. Margin Debt is about 4% of portfolio value. Total Market Leverage is 1.05x (down from 1.34x in 2014). No bonds, and cash is less than 2% of gross assets. Real Estate is Residential Rentals, mostly near the beach (average LTV is about 40%).
Over the past 35+ years of active investing in stocks and real estate, my investment returns have been significantly above the average return of the S&P 500 (largely due to market timing and leverage). Since October 2007, my Stock portfolio average total return has been about 15% per year, compounded. My Real Estate portfolio average total return has been about 8% per year for the same period. The S&P 500 average total return has been about 6% per year during the same period.
Stephen White is an undergraduate student at Texas A&M University pursuing a degree in Economics. He has attended Colorado School of the Mines Petroleum Super School and London School of Economics.
Stephen has experience working in the oil and gas industry as a yard hand building a fleet of walking automated drilling rigs, as a floor hand on a automated drilling rig in the Bakken, on frac crews in the Eagle Ford and the Bakken, and working as a financial analyst intern for an oil and gas private equity firm and an oil field service company.
I'm interested in all things energy related, in particular upstream oil and gas exploration, production, and oil field services.