Bob Palmerton

Long/short equity, value, growth at reasonable price, contrarian
Bob Palmerton
Long/short equity, value, growth at reasonable price, contrarian
Contributor since: 2012
Company: Baseline Analytics TrendFlex
Well thought-out arguments and nice supporting data! I do believe that interest rates can rise modestly without hurting housing ownership or business investment; rising rates can be good for the economy. A little settling back in home price growth and sales would be a healthy occurrence.
It is always prudent to take a little off the table now and then. A disciplined approach to taking profits and losses is key to slowly building capital. Set stops (I use a 2X "average true range" approach to consider a stock's volatility) and prune positions now and then.
It would be interesting to correlate this indicator with mutual fund cash levels and/or some indicator of bond market enthusiasm. I certainly agree that the upside potential is significant given the level of fear and uncertainty that has permeated the financial markets since 2008.
Friday's 277 point gain in the Dow was supported by strong breadth, a positive reinforcement of bullish enthusiasm. Indicators of breadth include Up/Down Volume, Advancers vs. Decliners, and New Highs vs. New Lows. A high achieved in the NYSE Advance/Decline ratio (matching highs in April and May) and in New Highs vs. New Lows, was quite impressive from Friday's activity. Continued strength in these indicators bode well for a sustained market uptrend.
Although I agree volume on this rally has been wanting, most of the sentiment and market breadth indicators, as well as equity index prices relative to their February lows and important moving averages, are solidly bullish.
One highlight is the NYSE Summation Index (NYSI) relative to its EMA 20; that shows NYSI closing in on crossing up through its EMA 20. In the past, this has identified significant equity turning points. Let's see if that cross comes to fruition.
Small cap equities have also regained favor as risky assets find a bid.
Here is the link to my latest issue of the Market Tour on
Very interesting. I wonder what the VIX and VXV-based projections would have told us when VIX was 80 in November 2008. As a market technician, retracement, support and resistance and our bag of technical tooks did a decent job in pinning a SPX target in the 1050-1200 range in the Nov/Jan timeframe. Our projection techniques included Elliott Wave and Fibonacci retracement levels. You can view the weekly chart of SPX at
More re-inforcement for a stable to rising dollar vs. EURO, with a better (albeit slim) change of higher US rates.
Looking at the government debt risk in the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) and the potential for further Euro erosion further support dollar bulls. Looking at CRB performance, the indice's inability to barely recover one-third of its fall from near 470 in July 08 to 200 in March 09 is a bearish omen and dollar-positive.
See CRB chart in Baseline Analytics Market Tour:[e161439859]&disp=O