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Bob Palmerton
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Mr. Palmerton is the founder of Baseline Analytics TrendFlex, a market trend-following system incorporating high-probability trend change signals. Robert is a Registered Investment Advisor. He is co-founder and advisor to The Absolute Return, LLC, which manages a family of absolute return... More
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  • Small Cap Gems And Breakouts

    Here's another Baseline Analytics FLASH report. This week, we present small cap stocks with Returns on Equity of 10% or higher. Technically, these stocks have exhibited a price jump on stronger trading volume vs. their average trading volume over the last week.

    (click to enlarge)

    FRAN leads the list this week. Francesca Holdings, an operator of a chain of retail boutiques based out of Houston, had seen some tough trading days (and not so great company news) until FRAN announced a new CEO on Friday.

    Visit Baseline Analytics Home Page and click on the FLASH REPORT link for this week's list.

    Tags: FRAN
    Dec 06 12:28 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Market Tour Update

    Time for an update of our Baseline Analytics Market Tour.

    There is no doubt that technical damage has been done to the major indices. Although we are cautiously optimistic for year-end strength, more technical proof is needed to embrace that possibility.

    As for the S&P 500, as can be seen in the chart below, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) held near the 30 area for a low, which has tended to support corrective action within long term uptrends.

    (click to enlarge)

    Note how the index bounced sharply when VIX and Put/Call peaked last week. Subscribers to Baseline Analytics TrendFlex (as well as followers of our blog) have been notified when extreme levels in these sentiment readings were likely to result in a shift in the market trend. These indicators are now relatively neutral, although they suggest continued volatility.

    With today's setback, the S&P 500 deflected from resistance at its 50-day moving average (see red arrow). A break through that average may qualify for a shift in the short term trend, so we will keep our attention on this.

    Market breadth as noted in the chart below has seen some decent recovery from the lows. If it builds on this recovery, that too will signify a potential trend change shift.

    (click to enlarge)

    The Advance-Decline line looks very similar to the S&P 500, as it too deflected off moving average resistance (we use a 63-day average for this indicator). Note however the spike in New Highs vs. New Lows, a bullish development. On the flip side, however, the Summation Index remains in bearish territory and has experienced a rather uncommon setback in the extreme lows it reached in October.

    In conclusion, there are a few silver linings forming in the October storm clouds. More bullish signals will be needed, however, to shift our outlook to a convincing resumption in the uptrend.

    Visit our Home Page for our technical BUY/SELL list following the market close (10/22/14). For those potential subscribers that haven't decided to join in our TrendFlex Signal updates, StockStash and ETF Zone selections, Baseline Analytics is offering a FREE 30-day trial. Visit Baseline Analytics TrendFlex and get started!

    Tags: SPY, market trend
    Oct 22 9:16 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Market Warning Signs - An Update

    On September 10th I posted a blog entitled "Warning Signs," which reviewed the same two charts as can be seen below. Following today's 1.6% swoon in the S&P 500, the technical damage as noted in my September 10th blog continues.

    1975 was established as a short-term support level for the S&P 500. This level was broken today as the index closed at 1966.

    (click to enlarge).

    Throughout the recent bull market, RSI (Relative Strength Index) of the S&P 500 has been able to hold above the 30 level. We'll keep an eye on this for support near 30 to suggest a resumption of the uptrend (RSI closed at 41 today).

    Known Sure Thing (NYSE:KST), Martin Pring's indicator, has seen weakening momentum but remains positive. As for "fear" indicators, both VIX and Put/Call have perked up as expected, but are not at extremes which would indicate a positive shift in the short term trend.

    Our market breadth chart likewise flashes a few concerns for the bulls:

    (click to enlarge)

    The Advance-Decline line has broken support, and the New High/Low index slipped rather decisively below zero. Add to this recent carnage the Summation Index, a market breadth indicator. We mark a bullish environment with a score above 400, and bearish below. Note not only has the index turned negative, but it had failed to rise commensurately with the lift in the S&P 500, breaking its trendline support in mid-July.

    More updates will follow should the market continue its dance with volatility. Indicators such as those noted in this blog comprise our TrendFlex Score, a weighing of 10 indicators that measures the risk to a change in the market trend. You can subscribe here to obtain our TrendFlex Score to gauge when this short term rout might end.

    Tags: SPY, market trend
    Sep 25 9:32 PM | Link | Comment!
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