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Bob Palmerton
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Mr. Palmerton is the founder of Baseline Analytics TrendFlex, a market trend-following system incorporating high-probability trend change signals. Robert is a Registered Investment Advisor. He is co-founder and advisor to The Absolute Return, LLC, which manages a family of absolute return... More
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Baseline Analytics TrendFlex
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Baseline Analytics
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  • Swing Trade Gold?

    Baseline Analytics runs a collection of 54 system tests to find the top-performing four systems for various ETF's over the year-to-date timeframe.

    We ran GLD (the SPDR Gold Trust Shares) and the top-performing four systems all flashed BUY signals. These signals were generated as early as the market close on 7/16 and as late as the market close on 7/23 (when 2 of the 4 flashed a BUY signal).

    Per the chart below, note GLD's surge on Friday. A few maybe smart contrarians stepped in to buy.

    (click to enlarge)

    But then look at the weekly chart. Feels more like the falling knife scenario.

    (click to enlarge)

    Finally, bringing in our Italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci (also known as Leonardo of Pisa and Leonardo Pisano Bigollo - I guess if your system does not work you can hide under a different name), the monthly chart shows GLD closing in on the 61.8% retracement drawn from the peak in mid-2011 to the low in 2005, at a price of 94. GLD closed on Friday at 105.35, but perhaps we are close enough to that low to warrant partial long positions.

    (click to enlarge)

    If you decide to bit the golden bullet, mind the large gap between 106.50 and 108.50. Also are be prepared to get hit by those traders that bought near the bottom on 7/24, looking to get out with your purchase.

    (click to enlarge)

    Gold has come a long way from its peak in 2011. But price carnage like this awakens the opportunistic traders (and long term investors). It is worth watching GLD as well as GDX and the various gold miner ETF's.

    Be sure to visit Baseline Analytics and the TrendFlex family of market trend risk-assessment tools. Timely stock and ETF scans from over 7,000 instruments are presented to our subscribers. Click here to visit our Premium Services page and sign up for a free trial.

    Tags: GLD, GDX
    Jul 27 6:28 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Shorts Candidates In A Toppy Market

    Baseline Analytics has refined a series of stock and ETF-screening algorithms that pinpoint timely trade and investment opportunities.

    The results of Baseline Analytics' stock and ETF screens are delivered in a downloadable Excel file. This file can be sorted to identify various performance and technical criteria to help provide a further edge to your trading and investments. Instructions are provided to guide you through your review. Our goal is to deliver such opportunities at your fingertips, with minimal research and analysis needed on your end. We do provide a link to Yahoo Finance for each of our timely picks should you want to delve further into particular equities or ETF's.

    As a special offer, Baseline Analytics is providing our latest potential "Short Sale" list, developed after the market close on Wednesday July 22. This list comprises stocks that are overvalued based on several fundamental criteria. See the list's instructions to identify potential short candidates.

    Subscribers to Baseline Analytics receive our proprietary screens regularly, as well as our TrendFlex family of market trend signals and risk assessment tools.

    You can find the free report in today's Blog.

    Sign up for a Free Trial and check out our reports and TrendFlex signals for the next 30-days.

    Tags: short sale
    Jul 23 8:56 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Key Divergence Underscores Waning Momentum

    As the S&P 500 looks to attempt another new high and volatity settles back, a key momentum indicator continues to linger near its recent lows.

    Note below our Breadth and Internal Strength chart, a familiar layout in the Baseline Analytics Market Tour. The continuation of the S&P 500 uptrend following December, 2014 (brown line, top portion of chart) was met with a lagging summation index (blue line, bottom portion of chart).

    (click to enlarge)

    Note also that following the market top in April, the summation index has fallen to new depths, an extreme not seen since the October 2014 correction, while the S&P 500 traveled a wide sideways pattern between 1860 and 2010.

    You will similarly note that the NYSE Advance-Decline line (top portion of chart) struggled to achieve new highs while the S&P 500 peaked. In addition, the middle part of our chart shows that the moving average of the NYSE new highs vs. new lows too has waned since peaking in March.

    At Baseline Analytics, we keep track of several key technical indicators and watch for such diverging signals. Diverging indicators are not ideal for short-term market timing, but they do help to characterize the internal market activity going on behind the scenes of the major market indices.

    At some point, these diverging indicators will resolve their divergence. Given seasonal weakeness and the aging bull market, we would accept these signals as a caution to preserve capital.

    Jul 15 7:04 AM | Link | Comment!
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