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Bob Wilson

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  • U.S. Dollar Breakout: Gold To $1,250, Silver To $19 By Year End [View article]
    When we see a huge spike in gold shorts, we all know what this means: even aside from their short squeeze risk, they are going to eventually cover and the unsustainable MACD dive suggests these covering trades will be losers. If you like Au or Ag, buy and hold. My suggestion would be NEM with its dividend and FCX for a related Cu upturn (I wrote about this about a month ago). Mike, I respect your call for its guts, but I think you're staying on the merry-go-round too long.
    May 30 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Patient Should An Investor Be With Dividend Stocks? [View article]
    Recently I read a comment from somebody who'd held COP for 38 years, from pre-Phillips merger. Trying to sell at fair value puts undue faith in how fair value is calculated, plus it's a moving target. Over several years price targets tend to be constantly raised so I discount those for the same reason. Buffet once said his favorite holding period was forever. The math shows that "double compounding" (reinvesting growing dividends) eventually creates a portfolio whose market value is increasingly due to reinvested dividends, not capital gains. Patience in strong management is a virtue.
    May 30 12:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Is A Tempting Value Bet, But What Are The Risks And How Do You Hedge Them? [View article]
    Marty, this is another good job on an O&G major. I appreciate the thoughtful work you've done here. And I agree with your advising against covered calls. Instead of puts my preference is to buy more if BP takes a serious hit. The settlements will not put BP out of business. Any info on BP's rate of growth in its reserve base? Any Canadian oil sands? Arctic drilling plans? GTL refinery plans?
    May 30 11:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Will Repeat History And Plunge Into The Abyss: Time To Call It Quits [View article]
    This article leads off with an irrelevant walk through AAPL's history, then gives us claims of non-existent facts in a verbose piece of guesswork posing as informed opinion and tainted with some poor English.
    Aside from that, AAPL continues to bank on exclusivity as well as innovation, partly based on its commitment to quality. The malware comparison by one reader was revealing in this regard. AAPL isn't after the market in any one country. It is after the loyalty of affluent (or nearly so) consumers everywhere. AAPL also continues to pick away at the corporate market where MSFT's Office suite has been available on Macs' iOS for a several years now (thanks to Jobs). Larger numbers of employees are now bringing Macs to the office and with them on the road. Lots of consumers globally can pay AAPL's prices. The cloud will continue to be another of AAPL's success stories. I don't expect rocket-assisted growth from AAPL now, but most metrics will continue to be appealing.
    May 29 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach, Inc: A Coach For Life [View article]
    Great article on a great company. CEO Lew Frankfort is the rock under Coach's success. COH's handbag personality seems to be avoiding glitz, unlike KOR. I agree about the dividend, LTH, but the thinking seems to be that this dividend-growth strategy is something competitors might be pushed to match. Market penetration in China should be a dependable source of expansion.
    May 29 10:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: A Dividend And Total Return Stalwart [View article]
    I don't know which of you to praise more, Albert for the excellent article or Oldokie for the very helpful comments. Considered together, you two make a very convincing case for COP. This is the best article on an O&G stock I've seen on SA.
    May 26 02:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why ConocoPhillips, With Over 4% Dividend Yield, Is On My Buy List [View article]
    AgAu, I'm guessing you are quite familiar with websites that clearly explain the difference between "core inflation" and the CPI-U (
    May 25 09:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Significant Gas Discovery Can Trigger Upside For BP [View article]
    I see BP as a good long-term holding. I agree with your guess about the general market, although I doubt we'll see anything like a 15%-20% correction, maybe 10%. BP has an attractive consolidation pattern in the chart, which is generally followed at some point by an up-trend.
    May 25 01:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why ConocoPhillips, With Over 4% Dividend Yield, Is On My Buy List [View article]
    Marty, I'd answer the question you ask, "If the Fed can buy billions of dollars' worth of U.S. Treasuries, why not buy/sell oil to better influence the inflation rate and prevent derailing any economic recovery, and to stabilize the inflation rate, which oil prices strongly influence?" this way: The Fed has been buying mostly mortgage-backed securities because QE is a form of monetary policy. QE "prints money" by injecting funds into the banking system. This encourages lower long-term interest rates.
    The Fed's charter doesn't authorize it to trade commodity contracts or the commodity itself. Aside from the fact that inflation is currently quite low, the government excludes energy and food when calculating the rate because those prices are considered too volatile. Mr. Volker has already demonstrated that the Fed's monetary tools are adequate for fighting inflation.
    As regards COP, when I compare its metrics with, say CVX, Chevron looks to be in clearly better shape. Do you have any thoughts about PSX, Marty?
    May 25 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Winning Investment Strategy [View article]
    Well done, D4L. I agree with this strategy.
    May 21 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: A Little Lower, And Then A Rally [View article]
    When I see such large volatility in gold, the contrarian in me starts to get interested. A) some hedge funds (Paulson) and famous billionaires (Soros) have recently been reported to have seriously cut or liquidated their gold positions. B) futures markets are reported to have a record setting number of shorts in gold. C) Bloomberg reported today that silver trading was interrupted four times last night. This stuff sounds like give-up selling, an institutional version of "just get me out!". That's half of the bottom equation.
    The other half is what will be the drivers of gold to the upside going forward? If we're headed towards a cessation of QE3, this will not help gold. The best upside driver for gold would be global recovery, GDPs starting to come in at 3-4%. I don't see this yet, especially with most of Europe stuck on austerity and most of Washington stuck on "What, Me Worry?".
    May 20 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Streaks And Current Yields The Best Metrics For Dividend Growth Investors? [View article]
    Your point is well taken, Craig. Nice job. My own bias is to start picking for dividends not with the dividends themselves but with business fundamentals and certain metrics. Next comes the chart. I want a common stock's total return to be 3/4 price appreciation 1/4 dividends. I think this is tricky to accomplish if one starts with the first priority being on dividends. If the primary consideration in the market is risk to principal, then dividends will usually be a secondary, not a primary criterion. But I admit one uncertainty about this, viz. it's possible that a portfolio of say two dozen common stocks with dividend yields of 2%-4% would, with a DRIP program, outperform the DJIA, due to the compounding or "Einstein" effect. Has anyone out there back tested this?
    May 20 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Coach Hikes Its Dividend, A Growth-By-Acqusition Strategy Could Be In The Works [View article]
    You might have noted COH's debt/equity of one, making the ROE a huge 50%. The real secret sauce for COH is the CEO Lew Frankfort. He understands very well the importance of R&D. Their new product initiatives seem to be a strength. If you pay $60 for COH now I'd bet you'll be pleased with that price in a year or two. And China's store base is still small.
    May 17 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bell Curves, Black Swans And Sell Discipline [View article]
    Something else W.B. said is that he has never had, does not have and will never have an opinion about where the market is headed. I've never been very good at market timing. Buy & hold might be better than sell discipline and market timing, most of the time. Another of Mr. Buffet's sayings is that his favorite holding period is forever.
    May 16 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach - China And Men's Business Give Allure To This Luxury Stock [View article]
    COH's past and future success are/will be attributable to Lew Frankfort's leadership. This is one of the best growth stories and successful rebrandings that I've seen. Not everything works, but COH is nimble to adjust to changing demand patterns. I sense the expansion into perfumes, shoes and even ladies' briefcases are all proving to be a solid addition to the bottom line.
    May 13 11:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment