Comments on Bob Zieger's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/bob-zieger/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/114673-oil-price-fundamentals-ignore-the-hype?source=feed#comment-356277 356277 Thu, 15 Jan 2009 04:04:52 -0500
Normally, its the "perception" of supply and demand that dictates price in commodity/futures markets, not the actual supply and demand (otherwise, there'd be no futures market, and only the spot market). Since accounting gimmicks influence perceptions, they can indeed have a "long-term" effect on pricing (if "long" is measured in years rather than centuries).
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114673-oil-price-fundamentals-ignore-the-hype?source=feed#comment-356246 356246 Thu, 15 Jan 2009 01:43:08 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114673-oil-price-fundamentals-ignore-the-hype?source=feed#comment-356239 356239 Thu, 15 Jan 2009 01:24:21 -0500
Coincidentally, the cost to rent a tanker is cheap right now and there are spare ships available that can be used as storage. The day rate is about 8% of what it would have cost to store oil last year and as there is a reduction in demand for oil, there are a lot of spare tankers idling away.

Your statement "contango occurs when investors sit on a commodity " is not really correct. Contango occus when buyers are willing to pay more for a further out contract. The availability of spare tankers which can be used for storage is coincidental to our world recession.

Needless to say, this will make some oil producers happy (Shell has been reported as jibbering with elation and they are taking full advantage of the situation. Sau\di Arabia has also been noted as having oil laden tankers in various ports... They'd probably be happier selling right now.)

At any rate. Contango and Backwardization are just state of the futures contracts and the sipping/storage issue is coincidental.

jegan ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82460-speculating-on-oil-regulation-not-the-most-effective-tool?source=feed#comment-192034 192034 Tue, 24 Jun 2008 16:05:06 -0400
static.seekingalpha.co...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82460-speculating-on-oil-regulation-not-the-most-effective-tool?source=feed#comment-191968 191968 Tue, 24 Jun 2008 14:23:04 -0400

will the futures market be the next industry to relocate overseas? and with it the $$$ USA currency as the basis of of exchange. when will the light come on? the USA is but one OF THE WORLD PLAYERS not the DEALER.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82460-speculating-on-oil-regulation-not-the-most-effective-tool?source=feed#comment-191963 191963 Tue, 24 Jun 2008 14:18:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82460-speculating-on-oil-regulation-not-the-most-effective-tool?source=feed#comment-191877 191877 Tue, 24 Jun 2008 12:29:58 -0400
Taxes, spending, the environment... these all play a role in effective energy policy, but what we are seeing right now is ordinary pandering to the electorate.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82460-speculating-on-oil-regulation-not-the-most-effective-tool?source=feed#comment-191728 191728 Tue, 24 Jun 2008 10:26:28 -0400 And as to speculators, unless a pension or endowment fund wants to take physical delivery of a lot of barrels of oil, if they are long crude they will have to sell their position before the contract expiration. This should be a self-regulating mechanism.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82460-speculating-on-oil-regulation-not-the-most-effective-tool?source=feed#comment-191723 191723 Tue, 24 Jun 2008 10:23:48 -0400
Corning markets happen. Enron in California Energy markets and the Hunt Brothers in Silver. Cut out the Monopoly and prices dive and stay down.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82460-speculating-on-oil-regulation-not-the-most-effective-tool?source=feed#comment-191670 191670 Tue, 24 Jun 2008 09:27:20 -0400
You can't outlaw speculation, but you can make it more civilized. Unless, of course, you consider "fair" someone with 5% leverage being able to roll 100%. I can't do that with my stocks, so why should commodities be an exception?

Also, in 2004 we had 13 billion dollars traded in commodities and by March 2008 this volume had increased only 20 fold, to 260 billions. I wonder if this small increase could possibly affect prices... Yes, since then the dollar must have tanked 30 fold, and demand for oil increased 50 fold, right? So, I guess oil at $140 is still a bargain.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82460-speculating-on-oil-regulation-not-the-most-effective-tool?source=feed#comment-191635 191635 Tue, 24 Jun 2008 08:42:10 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82460-speculating-on-oil-regulation-not-the-most-effective-tool?source=feed#comment-191608 191608 Tue, 24 Jun 2008 08:22:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82460-speculating-on-oil-regulation-not-the-most-effective-tool?source=feed#comment-191605 191605 Tue, 24 Jun 2008 08:16:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82460-speculating-on-oil-regulation-not-the-most-effective-tool?source=feed#comment-191604 191604 Tue, 24 Jun 2008 08:16:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79796-detroit-the-end-of-an-era?source=feed#comment-179354 179354 Wed, 04 Jun 2008 17:44:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79796-detroit-the-end-of-an-era?source=feed#comment-178576 178576 Tue, 03 Jun 2008 12:06:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69955-big-fall-in-commodities-not-so-fast?source=feed#comment-134161 134161 Mon, 31 Mar 2008 13:57:13 -0400