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  • Apple: Zenith Behind Us, Nadir On The Horizon [View article]
    Good article, as usual. The only thing funnier than the comments on this one are the comments after Apple's last earnings report. Apple bulls: "BUT...BUT....APPLE BEAT FORECASTS!!! WHY IS IT ONLY GOING UP 1%???!??!?"......and now it's down even from there at $125. You'd think they would have figured it out by now, but their emotions take away any chance of them realizing the truth.....Apple has peaked. It will go sideways or down from here as iPhone sales (more than half their profit at this point) stagnate. It's a $730B business for Christ's sake - it isnt' doubling again anytime soon (probably never again)...go find something else to put your money in.
    Apr 30, 2015. 12:45 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fastenal: Impressive Growth But Not Enough To Buy [View article]
    Thanks for the reply - I like the idea of your models, and think they make life a lot simpler for investors wanting to do a quick "sanity check" on valuations. However, I also think the model for FAST is a little too pessimistic in having growth go down so sharply to 4% in only 4 years, and ignores some of the fantastic qualitative aspects of the business.

    Growth is sure to slow eventually, but it's hard to see it just falling off a cliff when they still have only like 3% market share and have consistently grown 10+% over the last decade. Market saturation in the U.S. might become a problem, but then there are other countries they're expanding into (although currently foreign business is a tiny % of their overall sales).

    The stock certainly isn't cheap here at 19-20x next year's earnings, but this is a company that never really gets cheap because of how damn good it is. Management returns almost all the excess cash to shareholders and knows how to change their business for the better when the situation calls for it (as we're seeing now with their "Pathway to Profit" endeavor). Maybe the stock stagnates for another year or so as it grows into its valuation, but in the meantime you're collecting an almost 3% yield (which will grow as management ups the div) and after that your return will just revert back to earnings growth (10%+) plus any multiple expansion. With the S&P so pricey that doesn't seem so bad. Haven't gone long yet, but if the price continues to fall into and after earnings I'll begin building a small position. Any further declines and I'll continue to add.

    Anyway, thanks again.
    Apr 12, 2015. 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fastenal: Impressive Growth But Not Enough To Buy [View article]
    Thanks for the article on a great company I'm coming close to buying. Question: After sales growth reaches 8.5%, did you have it slowing down every year linearly to 4%, or just go straight down to the terminal growth rate? Just curious since your model only shows out to year 2018.
    Apr 9, 2015. 10:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Are Interest Rates So Low, Part 3: The Global Savings Glut [View article]
    Is this a savings rate as a % of gross income? Or is it income after taxes? I looked at the FRED Series, but it didn't seem to specify.
    Apr 3, 2015. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Think Amazon Is OverPriced Do Not Think Of Buying Facebook [View article]
    How do things like this get published? What value does this even add? It's clear you have almost no serious knowledge accounting or finance, so why post as if you do? The reason price/sales is higher for Facebook is because their margins are higher....mathematically: P/S = P/E x E/S. In other words, Price/Sales = Price/Earnings x Earnings/Sales. Earnings/Sales is the net Facebook's net margins being 20x higher than Amazon's probably has, oh I don't know, just a little to do with the higher P/S.

    You then focus on market cap to assets, saying that for Amazon, an investor is paying "less than four times assets. Those assets are growing even faster than sales, 35% in 2014 alone." What in God's name does this even have to do with valuation? You realize that if a company raises $5B in debt, it's assets (cash) go up $5B....This is purely because of a financing decision it made, not because of anything that actually matters (earnings, cash flow). Price/Equity could be used, but that's more of a metric for financials (banks, insurance companies etc..) than for high-growth tech companies.

    You basically have added no value with this article. In fact, that opposite has occurred. You've misled any readers without a sophisticated background in finance/accounting to think these are relevant points you're making, when in fact there is nothing relevant in any of it.

    Congratulations on your $35. (Wonder how long it takes to have this comment deleted?)
    Mar 28, 2015. 10:49 AM | 30 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Raven Industries: A Small, Debt Free Company With Substantial Long-Term Potential [View article]
    Well, anyone looking to get RAVN sub $20 has the chance now. I actually started buying some around $20.80 (couldn't help it, woops), but will accumulate more if it stays down. Earnings are also coming up, so depending on how they do investors could get an even better entry point.
    Mar 10, 2015. 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple replacing AT&T in Dow Jones Industrial Average [View news story]
    Don't care about T one way or the other, but this should be interesting to watch, given that Apple's stock price is higher than everyone else's (and so will have an outsized impact on the index). It's a shame AAPL will probably stagnate over the next 5-10 years....DJI won't be going anywhere fast with that.
    Mar 6, 2015. 10:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks give up gains as ECB rejects Greek paper as acceptable collateral [View news story]
    It's about damn time.
    Feb 4, 2015. 04:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • C.H. Robinson Up Over 40% From Its Lows: Is It Still A Bargain? [View article]
    Results were pretty much as expected (if not better), but guidance for next year was murky. Management basically said, "we aren't comfortable giving you solid estimates right now," so I think that had something to do with it. In addition, the stock has run up a lot recently, and people might have wanted to secure some gains. Anyone's guess really, although it seems to be recovering today.
    Feb 4, 2015. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arthur J. Gallagher: Solid Company And Management In Industry With Moats, But Valuation Leaves Something To Be Desired [View article]
    Good point - never ran across that provision actually. Thanks for the info.
    Feb 2, 2015. 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, guides in-line [View news story]
    Exactly...stock prices are determined by years and years of future earnings, not one quarter of unusually good ones. This quarter will likely never be repeated over the next few years as the upgrade cycle lengthens and people stop buying a new phone every year. Apple's too big to double again, hence the only 5% gain on a huge beat.
    Jan 27, 2015. 08:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay Layoffs Will Lead To Attractive Upside Despite Slowing Growth [View article]
    ‎The poster below said it best...The stock market isn't an arena for your social crusade, go wage it elsewhere. I invest in profitable enterprises hoping to get more out of it than I put in. Nothing moral or immoral in any of that. These can include, but aren't limited to, tobacco companies, coal companies or even (the horror) an online market place that pays it's outgoing executives with millions of dollars, just like oh I don't know, just about every other public entity in existence.

    Am I thrilled that he's getting that $23m? No, as a shareholder I'd prefer it be reinvested into the business or paid out to investors. But $23m is so minuscule as to not matter at all in a business that does $18B in revenue. You seem to have a bone to pick with eBay - great, have at it. But do it in a way that actually adds value, rather than just senselessly gripe about how unfair eBay is to you and other sellers. It gets old real fast.
    Jan 26, 2015. 05:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall: Despite Gains, Still A Bargain [View article]
    I agree that the company is cheap, even with the recent runup, but I'd be careful about assuming that the OUTR can just continue in perpetuity. This is a space that's constantly changing, and I think the future of DVD's, coinstar, kiosks etc.. is a little cloudier than you're admitting in this article. I might limit your time period to say 15-20 years, assume FCF trails off towards the end, lower the discount rate to account for that, and see where your calculations get you. Not saying the company's going bankrupt anytime soon, just don't think it's a business you can count on to be around 20+ years from now. Personally still long OUTR, but viewing the future cautiously...
    Jan 13, 2015. 09:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On Oil [View instapost]
    I love big price declines and want to invest in some of the small-mid cap E&P's that have been completely annihiliated, but I have yet to see a compelling, quantitative analysis of why oil can't descend to $30-35/barrel and just sit there for a number of years.....if that happens, what's the upside, even for the well-capitalized players that won't go bankrupt? This is something I've really struggled with psychologically and has prevented me from allocating a large amount of money to these names. There are lots of ways to play oil right now (E&P's being only one of them), I just have no way of convincing myself that oil HAS to rebound to $60/70 barrel, or that costs for the onshore frackers HAVE to continue their descent.....

    Any thoughts on this are obviously appreciated.
    Jan 9, 2015. 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett/Munger look to next 50 years for Berkshire [View news story]
    Looking forward to it
    Dec 12, 2014. 03:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment