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Boris Marjanovic

 
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  • A Textbook Model Of Dividend Predictability [View article]
    Peter,

    Against the Gods is a good book, I suggest every reads it to learn more about the history of risk.
    Oct 21 01:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Textbook Model Of Dividend Predictability [View article]
    Robert,

    I understand where you are coming from, but I don't think you understand me. You always have to insure yourself from Black Swan risk. If something goes wrong you could lose both your original investment and the income stream.

    If I could just buy some random REIT that pays a 5-10% dividends, I wouldn't care about the fluctuations in the stock price either if I knew that dividend stream was guaranteed. In fact, it would bother me very little if the stock moved up/down 50% daily. However, this is not the real world. In the real world both your dividends and your original investment are at risk, that is why you always must insure yourself.

    What if the REIT you own gets into trouble for accounting fraud, for example. This is a Black Swan risk that will cause you to lose everything. Always cap the downside, my friend!
    Oct 20 10:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Textbook Model Of Dividend Predictability [View article]
    Robert,

    Nobody is saying that O is going bankrupt. However, you still have to cap your downside risk. Unpredictable events could case the stock to crash and will cause you to suffer enormous losses.
    Oct 20 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Textbook Model Of Dividend Predictability [View article]
    liusing,

    Even if a stock moves only up or down 5% 999 out of every 1000 trading days, it only takes one Black Swan event to completely wipe you out. The ONLY way to eliminate Black Swan risk is to cap your losses using insurance (such as puts).
    Oct 20 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Textbook Model Of Dividend Predictability [View article]
    PendragonY,

    You get a 5% yield and if interest rates move up your position is hedged (your shares can decrease in value but the option offsets this and increases in value). It doesn't make sense to receive a 10%, or even 30%, yield if the share price gets cut in half (you still end up losing money).
    Oct 19 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Textbook Model Of Dividend Predictability [View article]
    liusing,

    Everything is stable until it crashes. Syria was stable for a long time and then, unexpectedly, it all blew up into chaos. I am very suspicious of anything that is stable for a long time, including so called "stable companies/stocks."
    Oct 19 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Textbook Model Of Dividend Predictability [View article]
    Catmanrog,

    If you are a REIT investor but constantly worried about what interest rates will do, why not just hedge your position? For example, say you own a REIT that pays a 10% yield, you could use half of those dividends to buy puts and hedge your position. This would give you a nearly risk-free return (it is important to note that there is no 100% risk free instrument in existence).
    Oct 18 07:15 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Textbook Model Of Dividend Predictability [View article]
    Daniel,

    Excellent reply! This is what most investors don't understand. DCF models are only good when it comes to bonds and other instruments where you know the exact future cash flows. However, it is important to note that even in rare cases where you know the exact cash flows, it is still impossible to determine an intrinsic value for that security. This is because the "discount rate" used varies from person to person and is based purely on arbitrary inputs (even if you use WAAC, because of the cost of equity part of the equation).
    Oct 18 07:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Portfolio Keeping You Up At Night? Take One Of These [View article]
    "If the markets are making you nervous with a little 6% or 7% correction, it may be time for a risk evaluation time to ask yourself how it will feel if the markets correct another 15%, 25% or 40%. If you think there is the possibility that you would be looking to sell all or some of your assets - it may be time to lower the volatility level of your portfolio."

    If I believed the market will drop 15%, 25%, 40%, or more I would much rather own put options on the most overvalued stocks (which always drop the most). The puts can make 10x, 20x, or even greater returns than buying "low volatility" bonds. My suggestion: if you believe the market will drop a lot, ignore the bonds and buy puts (will make you a lot richer in the end).
    Oct 16 11:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Near-Term Dollar Outlook [View article]
    Technical analysts, like the author of this article, would be great storytellers (preferably fiction). They are experts at finding random patterns in charts and creating stories to explain them. They then use these "interesting" stories to make make "mostly unprofitable" investment decisions.
    Oct 16 11:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Sell Into Earnings [View article]
    No.
    Oct 15 10:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Sell Into Earnings [View article]
    Good job! You made enormous profits today!
    Oct 15 10:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Sell Into Earnings [View article]
    Grant,

    Let's pretend for a second that you had read this before the close, can you honestly say that you would have acted on the advice given in this article?
    Oct 15 10:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Sell Into Earnings [View article]
    Fiberton,

    One correct prediction is hardly enough reason to complement someone. Even a monkey can correctly predict things once in a while, so would you subscribe/follow a monkey then?
    Oct 15 10:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook - Can The 200-Day Moving Average Halt The Downtrend? [View article]
    "Can The 200-Day Moving Average Halt The Downtrend?"

    What a ridiculous and pointless article. An average is just an average, it will not stop/halt anything.
    Oct 14 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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