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Boris Marjanovic  

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  • Netflix Off-Balance Sheet Obligations: Concerns Are Way Overblown [View article]
    Alex,

    "It just so happens that I disagree with Marjanovic and I have a pretty good track record on Netflix."

    If you pick enough stocks, eventually you will get "lucky" and pick one that happens to go up. A blind monkey could do it. If you picked 50 stocks in a row and all of them went up then I would be very impressed. But even then, given a large enough sample size of investors, someone will have a very long winning streak simply due to luck/chance/randomness.

    "I don't think the recent quarterly dip in free cash flow is truly representative of a long-term trend. I'm fairly certain Netflix CFO David Wells and CEO Reed Hastings will keep expansion at a pace in which free cash flow doesn't dip too far into the red."

    You obviously didn't read the most recent 10-Q. This is what management said about free cash flow: "We expect that free cash flow will be MATERIALLY LESS than net income while we increase our investments, particularly in original content, and we may use cash for operations and / or have negative free cash flow in future periods."

    This is a nice way of saying that free cash flow will continue deteriorating and there is not much Netflix's management can do about.
    Nov 17, 2014. 11:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Properly Diversified Portfolio Includes Gold [View article]
    Cagdas,

    Just look at what's going on in Syria. For the people fighting in the war, the last thing on their minds is gold. They want shelter, food, clean water, medicine, weapons to defend themselves, etc. Anybody who has lived through a REAL crisis, such as a civil war, knows first hand how useless gold truly is. I was born in a country that went through a horrible war and have seen this with my own eyes. The keyboard-charlatans on here who believe that gold will save them when things get really bad are delusional idiots.
    Nov 13, 2014. 11:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Properly Diversified Portfolio Includes Gold [View article]
    Alex Trias,

    It's nice to see there are still rational people in the world!
    Nov 12, 2014. 05:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Properly Diversified Portfolio Includes Gold [View article]
    Let's assume that there's a total social and economic collapse. What will there be more demand for?

    A) Gold and silver or...
    B) Food, clean water, medicine, and weapons

    I think we all know the answer to this question. Another great thing about choice "B" is the fact that it too can be used as currency. This is something the delusional gold lovers choose to ignore. If you want REAL insurance, go with choice B!
    Nov 12, 2014. 04:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best Offense Is A Good Defense [View article]
    "The best offense is a good defense."

    Sometimes the best offense is a good offense!
    Nov 9, 2014. 01:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why Gold Prices Have Been Declining [View article]
    jb7777,

    "Gold is in the bible to represent wealth; so always will be as represented."

    What does the book of myths and fairy tales (the "bible") have to do with gold investing? The number of slaves one had was also meant to represent wealth in the bible, does that mean we should have more slaves to diversify our portfolios?
    Nov 9, 2014. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why Gold Prices Have Been Declining [View article]
    stockanalyst59,

    All I am saying is that we don't even know how little we know. The world will probably change a lot over the next few centuries, perhaps in ways we could never even imagine. Saying that gold will "never" be worthless is pure ignorance, in my opinion.
    Nov 8, 2014. 10:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why Gold Prices Have Been Declining [View article]
    Stephen Mayo,

    I will bet you that owning food (including water) and medicine and weapons is more valuable than gold and silver, especially in the event of a total societal and economic collapse. In the end nothing has intrinsic value, it is all based on what someone is willing to pay for it at the time. In certain situations a cup of clean water can be more valuable to a person than all the gold in the world.
    Nov 7, 2014. 03:57 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why Gold Prices Have Been Declining [View article]
    Stephen Mayo,

    I liked your comment until I read the last sentence: "The ONLY thing I know is that neither gold nor silver will ever be worth zero."

    A smart guy like you should know that saying something like this is a logical fallacy. An absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. In other words, the fact that gold and silver HAVE NEVER BEEN worthless does not mean that they WILL NEVER BE worthless. Perhaps there will be some kind of new currency or some kind of newly discovered commodity or something we cant even think of right now that will make gold and silver completely useless and worthless.
    Nov 7, 2014. 12:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Ticking Time Bomb Ready To Explode [View article]
    Glenn,

    Netflix catalogue will continue to weaken because now the company is forced to spread out its minimal resources to also buy foreign content. This will limit the company's long-term subscriber growth as well.
    Nov 6, 2014. 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Ticking Time Bomb Ready To Explode [View article]
    RealDutch,

    Yes, Netflix's obligations are growing several times faster than its membership base. However, even with these enormous investments in movies and tv shows, the amount of actual content on Netflix is still very, very small.
    Nov 3, 2014. 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Ticking Time Bomb Ready To Explode [View article]
    RealDutch,

    "Analysts expect earnings (growth) in 2015."

    If everybody reading this actually saw what laughable methods analysts use to make forecasts they would never pay attention to these charlatans ever again. It's literally guesswork in an excel spreadsheet... it's a total joke.
    Nov 3, 2014. 03:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Ticking Time Bomb Ready To Explode [View article]
    Glenn,

    I agree, there is a high probability that Netflix will collapse within a couple of years. The sad thing is that a rising stock price causes most investors to become delusional and ignore the truth. It was the same with the recent financial crisis - people ignored the obvious signs of a very fragile financial system that was bound to collapse eventually simply because house prices continued to go up, until it all ended in an epic crash. The same will happen with Netflix and I (as well as a few other smart traders) will be there to profit from it.
    Nov 2, 2014. 04:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Ticking Time Bomb Ready To Explode [View article]
    Joe,

    Redbox is another source!
    Nov 1, 2014. 06:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Ticking Time Bomb Ready To Explode [View article]
    Glenn,

    A major difference between Amazon and Netflix is that Netflix has no durable competitive advantage. Another big difference is that Netflix has enormous obligations (most of it hidden off the balance sheet) which makes the company very financially fragile. You are correct, the market can stay irrational for decades, so betting against a company based purely on valuation concerns is a bad bet. However, in the case of Netflix I am betting against the company because it is very fragile. Like a structurally deficient bridge, it only take small stressors to cause a catastrophic collapse. There is no need to predict which event will cause this collapse, everything that is fragile will eventually break. It could take 5 years of me making small losing bets, but when the collapse does occur, my returns will more than make up for it. As the famous option trader Nassim Taleb says, it is better to lose pennies to make dollars than to lose dollars to make pennies.
    Nov 1, 2014. 06:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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