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Boris Marjanovic  

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  • A Textbook Model Of Dividend Predictability [View article]
    PendragonY,

    You get a 5% yield and if interest rates move up your position is hedged (your shares can decrease in value but the option offsets this and increases in value). It doesn't make sense to receive a 10%, or even 30%, yield if the share price gets cut in half (you still end up losing money).
    Oct 19, 2014. 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Textbook Model Of Dividend Predictability [View article]
    liusing,

    Everything is stable until it crashes. Syria was stable for a long time and then, unexpectedly, it all blew up into chaos. I am very suspicious of anything that is stable for a long time, including so called "stable companies/stocks."
    Oct 19, 2014. 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Textbook Model Of Dividend Predictability [View article]
    Catmanrog,

    If you are a REIT investor but constantly worried about what interest rates will do, why not just hedge your position? For example, say you own a REIT that pays a 10% yield, you could use half of those dividends to buy puts and hedge your position. This would give you a nearly risk-free return (it is important to note that there is no 100% risk free instrument in existence).
    Oct 18, 2014. 07:15 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Textbook Model Of Dividend Predictability [View article]
    Daniel,

    Excellent reply! This is what most investors don't understand. DCF models are only good when it comes to bonds and other instruments where you know the exact future cash flows. However, it is important to note that even in rare cases where you know the exact cash flows, it is still impossible to determine an intrinsic value for that security. This is because the "discount rate" used varies from person to person and is based purely on arbitrary inputs (even if you use WAAC, because of the cost of equity part of the equation).
    Oct 18, 2014. 07:08 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Portfolio Keeping You Up At Night? Take One Of These [View article]
    "If the markets are making you nervous with a little 6% or 7% correction, it may be time for a risk evaluation time to ask yourself how it will feel if the markets correct another 15%, 25% or 40%. If you think there is the possibility that you would be looking to sell all or some of your assets - it may be time to lower the volatility level of your portfolio."

    If I believed the market will drop 15%, 25%, 40%, or more I would much rather own put options on the most overvalued stocks (which always drop the most). The puts can make 10x, 20x, or even greater returns than buying "low volatility" bonds. My suggestion: if you believe the market will drop a lot, ignore the bonds and buy puts (will make you a lot richer in the end).
    Oct 16, 2014. 11:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Near-Term Dollar Outlook [View article]
    Technical analysts, like the author of this article, would be great storytellers (preferably fiction). They are experts at finding random patterns in charts and creating stories to explain them. They then use these "interesting" stories to make make "mostly unprofitable" investment decisions.
    Oct 16, 2014. 11:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Sell Into Earnings [View article]
    No.
    Oct 15, 2014. 10:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Sell Into Earnings [View article]
    Good job! You made enormous profits today!
    Oct 15, 2014. 10:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Sell Into Earnings [View article]
    Grant,

    Let's pretend for a second that you had read this before the close, can you honestly say that you would have acted on the advice given in this article?
    Oct 15, 2014. 10:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Sell Into Earnings [View article]
    Fiberton,

    One correct prediction is hardly enough reason to complement someone. Even a monkey can correctly predict things once in a while, so would you subscribe/follow a monkey then?
    Oct 15, 2014. 10:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook - Can The 200-Day Moving Average Halt The Downtrend? [View article]
    "Can The 200-Day Moving Average Halt The Downtrend?"

    What a ridiculous and pointless article. An average is just an average, it will not stop/halt anything.
    Oct 14, 2014. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro: The Level Of Hype Is Unbelievable [View article]
    "I have been trying to short this stock for days now, but I cannot find a broker that will let me borrow shares against."

    Only a fool shorts stocks. Buying long-dated, deep out of the money puts is much better because of the asymmetric payoff. If you're wrong, you don't lose much with puts... but if you're wrong when shorting, you could lose an enormous amount of money. Guess some people have to learn this lesson the hard way.
    Oct 13, 2014. 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Key Points The Bears Miss [View article]
    Google has over 90% worldwide search market share. Many countries still have very low Internet penetration rates, so although Google has a monopoly in search, it still has plenty of growth potential in this area.

    Also, as I mentioned above, Google owns YouTube which is generating more revenue, is likely more profitable (since the content is uploaded by users for free), and is certainly growing substantially faster than Netflix. Moreover, Netflix does not benefit from the same network-effect advantage as YouTube, which is what makes YouTube's user-base more sticky. Netflix's user-base is not very loyal, as we found out a few years ago during the attempted Qwikster spinoff.

    Overall, if I could only own one business over the next 10 years, I would much rather own Google than Netflix.
    Oct 13, 2014. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Overdue For A Bounce: At Least In Some Sectors [View article]
    Gratian,

    Just place deep out of the money, long-dated bulish and bearish bets using options... better and safer than trying to predict what the market will do.
    Oct 13, 2014. 12:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Key Points The Bears Miss [View article]
    "Netflix trades at 4.20 times 2015 revenues. Google trades at 5.08 times. Netflix has a lot more revenue growth potential in the next few years than Google does mostly due to the law of large numbers hurting Google's growth."

    Obviously you don't now much about Google. YouTube, which is owned by Google, generates more revenue and is more profitable than Netflix. Moreover, unlike Netflix, YouTube benefits from a tremendous network effect advantage. Now if we look at Google as a whole, the company can continue growing 15-20% for the foreseeable future, and it will achieve this growth while generating double-digit profit margins. Based purely on valuation, Google is extremely undervalued when compared to Netflix.
    Oct 13, 2014. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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