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Boris Marjanovic

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  • Netflix Is A House Of Cards On The Verge Of Collapse [View article]
    I agree, the service itself is not bad and is reasonably priced. However, that doesn't make the stock a great investment.
    Feb 27 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mixed Results And Executive Greed Are Revealed In MusclePharm's Letter To Shareholders [View article]
    Brad is an idiot. He already went bankrupt once, the man doesn't know what he is doing. He needs to be gone asap!
    Feb 26 03:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A House Of Cards On The Verge Of Collapse [View article]
    Find me an article where someone got caught "streaming" a movie on their computer. You probably won't find it since the authorities don't go after these people. They only go after those who "upload" the movies, which is difficult since a lot of them live in different countries. There is nothing that can stop illegal movie streaming.
    Feb 26 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A House Of Cards On The Verge Of Collapse [View article]
    biobat,

    Very misleading. Those link have nothing to do with movie streaming. They have to do with people who use torrents to upload/download things. I have never seen anyone get caught streaming a pirated movie. Never!
    Feb 25 09:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A House Of Cards On The Verge Of Collapse [View article]
    It is extremely easy to stream every movie (even those in theaters) for free. In fact, I know countless people who do this. What's funny is that these obviously illegal movie websites are hardly ever even taken down, and once they are, there is always another to take its place. The younger generations are more tech-savvy, they don't need Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime, etc... all they need is a computer and an internet connection.
    Feb 25 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Out Of Bitcoin Now [View article]
    There will always be demand for Bitcoins. It will continue to be used by drug-dealers, illegal arms dealers, etc. An organized exchange is not really necessary.
    Feb 25 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A House Of Cards On The Verge Of Collapse [View article]
    “Is a decade long term enough? Look at 10 year NFLX chart to see just how silly of a statement that is.”

    Gary, that statement reminds me of the famous “turkey problem.” A turkey is fed for 1,000 days by a butcher. Every day confirms to the turkey’s economic department and the turkey’s risk management department and the turkey’s analytical department that the butcher loves turkeys, and every day brings more confidence to the statement. But on day 1,001 (around thanksgiving) there will be a surprise for the turkey!

    It is definitely true that NFLX has been a well performing stock. However, Enron and WorldCom had nice looking charts too and look what happened to them. Now I’m not saying Netflix is a fraud, but there are so many hidden risks in the firm’s business model that it can eventually cause a massive problem. Netflix is adding at least $1 billion per quarter to its off-balance sheet content obligations (including the content obligations with variable term agreements which cannot be estimated). How long do you honestly think this will go on? Now Netflix has to keep taking on more and more debt to fund operations (another $400 million in 1Q14). Free cash flow is also deteriorating.

    Simply put, Netflix is digging itself into a deep hole that it will never climb out of. The most rational thing one can do is to place bets against this fragile house of cards. Don’t be a turkey Gary!
    Feb 25 12:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A House Of Cards On The Verge Of Collapse [View article]

    My company doesn't disclose exact dates, strike prices, etc. (except in situations where the law requires us to do so). What I can tell you is that the puts we do own are deep out of the money and most expire within 12 months.
    Feb 24 11:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A House Of Cards On The Verge Of Collapse [View article]
    You got it all wrong... I am losing the battles but will win the war.
    Feb 24 07:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A House Of Cards On The Verge Of Collapse [View article]
    Due to the way options are priced, deep out of the money options are almost always miss-priced/undervalued. This is because our models underestimate the likelihood of tail events (like a huge crash in the stock price).

    I know one thing for sure… Netflix is a very fragile company. The stock is priced for perfection, which means everything will have to go according to plan for the price to stay where it is or keep rising. Even a small setback could be a financial disaster for those who are long.

    I simply place small bets and I keep placing them every quarter. I don't know when the crash will occur, just like I don't know when a fragile bridge will collapse, but I do know that it will happen eventually. You must be very patient and persistent to make money like this. It’s not for most investors.
    Feb 24 05:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A House Of Cards On The Verge Of Collapse [View article]
    The number of households (roughly 120 million) is NFLX's maximum domestic potential. It does not matter how many connected devices there are, people won't buy multiple subscriptions just because they have multiple devices. One household generally buys one NFLX subscription, and they can stream movies/shows across any device they want.
    Feb 24 03:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A House Of Cards On The Verge Of Collapse [View article]
    I place small bets (using deep out of money puts), and I keep placing them quarter after quarter. It doesn't cost me very much, but when the crash happens, my payoff will be enormous. It's about patience and persistence.
    Feb 24 11:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A House Of Cards On The Verge Of Collapse [View article]
    I expect NFLX to raise more debt going forward. This additional interest expense, along with rising content costs, will continue to pressure earnings.
    Feb 24 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A House Of Cards On The Verge Of Collapse [View article]
    Placing small, out-of-the-money bets using puts is the best way to play this. The bull market might last another few years, but it will not last forever. One day this house of cards market will come crashing down. I will be there to profit from it.
    Feb 24 09:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A House Of Cards On The Verge Of Collapse [View article]
    Analysts change their minds all the time. Look at the estimates back in late 2011 and early 2012 when NFLX was struggling. Many analysts said the stock was worth under $100/sh. Now they are saying it's worth over $400! Can a firm's intrinsic value change that much in two years? Probably not! You have to understand that sell-side analysts have to actually "sell" this research to big hedge funds. So they will say whatever it takes to accomplish that. I can guarantee you if NFLX was $1000/sh, you would still have most analysts saying it can go higher. Don't listen to wall street analysts if you want to make money, do your own research.
    Feb 24 09:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
481 Comments
359 Likes