Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Boris Marjanovic  

View Boris Marjanovic's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • This Stock Market Bubble Will Burst Like An Overinflated Balloon [View article]
    5731311,

    I have no idea what your statement has to do with my article. Whether or not they compete for funds is not the point.... the point is we are in a stock market bubble right now.
    Mar 27, 2015. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Stock Market Bubble Will Burst Like An Overinflated Balloon [View article]
    "Currently the US banks, at least, are quite safe from any trouble, as far as I can tell."

    They appeared quite "safe" in early 2007 as well, and look what ended up happening! Even the people running these banks don't fully understand the risks they are taking on (and they don't need to anyway since they get paid no matter what happens).
    Mar 26, 2015. 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Stock Market Bubble Will Burst Like An Overinflated Balloon [View article]
    compuirv,

    "Is it a suggestion to sell everything and start from that point?"

    I would never suggest such a crazy thing (mostly for tax reasons though). I just described a simple strategy that people can use, it's their choice if and how they want to implement it. Although you do have to have a basic understanding of options and hedging to use this strategy.
    Mar 26, 2015. 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Stock Market Bubble Will Burst Like An Overinflated Balloon [View article]
    rreeuwijk,

    You have to value the S&P 500 the same way you value a company - based on "normalized" earnings because profit margins can fluctuate wildly from year to year. The "E" in the Shiller P/E ratio is a very good proxy for normalized earnings.

    No one can deny that profit margins are at an all-time high as of this moment. They will eventually revert to their historical mean, and when that happens, stock prices will suffer.
    Mar 26, 2015. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Stock Market Bubble Will Burst Like An Overinflated Balloon [View article]
    T-time,

    "Go ahead, folks, give him some of your profits so (he) can sleep better at night. I'll keep mine, thank you."

    You'll keep your profits up until the day this bubble pops, then you will quickly return them all to Mr. Market.
    Mar 26, 2015. 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Stock Market Bubble Will Burst Like An Overinflated Balloon [View article]
    rreeuwijk,

    The P/E is not 17x, I don't know where you're getting your flawed information from. Moreover, even if it was 17x (which, as I said, it's not), the market would still be overvalued because corporate profit margins are at an all-time high right now. Margins, more so than any other financial variable, are mean-reverting. Once they come back down to more reasonable levels, the P/E ratios will naturally go up (because the "E" in P/E) will go down significantly.
    Mar 26, 2015. 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Stock Market Bubble Will Burst Like An Overinflated Balloon [View article]
    Jerbear,

    "There are been articles that show if the Schiller PE is calculated with a 5 year average instead of a 10 year average then the market it not overvalued."

    It would still be overvalued, but slightly less so. If you calculate the P/E based on just the TTM earnings, it will look less overvalued still. This is because, as I showed in my article, corporate profit margins are at an all-time high right now. But since margins are mean-reverting, they will eventually go back down to a more reasonable level. When this happens, the market will look even more overvalued than it is now.
    Mar 26, 2015. 11:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Stock Market Bubble Will Burst Like An Overinflated Balloon [View article]
    billcharlesdixon,

    I can tell you are one of the delusional bulls who thinks this Fed-driven bull market will somehow last forever. Guess what? This time is not different! Just like it wasn't different in 2007, 1999, or any of the other stock market bubbles.

    I clearly showed, using multiple different methods, that the market is trading at bubble-like valuations right now. Of course, this doesn't mean it can't become even more overvalued. But one thing is absolutely certain - this bubble will eventually burst. If you honestly believe that things can continue going up forever - you are absolutely crazy!
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Will Be No Oil Storage Crisis In 2015 [View article]
    Nobody has any idea where oil is going, everyone (even the experts) is just guessing. Of course, some guesses will turn out to be correct, but it doesn't mean that the person who ended up guessing correctly is a "skilled" oil price forecaster. If you had thousands of monkeys forecasting the price of oil, I can guarantee that some of them would end up being correct!

    Here is an article in which I show the so-called "expert predictions" and how hillariously wrong they were: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:27 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Stock Market Bubble Will Burst Like An Overinflated Balloon [View article]
    CaliforniaG,

    "You're missing the fact that the big banks now have to comply with the Fed CCAR (stress tests) under Dodd Frank to continue to operate under adverse economic conditions. They didn't have to have as much capital reserves in 2007."

    Banks get into trouble at least once a decade, and it has been that way for a very, very, very long time. The more things change, the more they stay the same. These banks will find a brand new way to screw things up again, and when they do, their enormous size has the potential to crash the whole global economy.
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Stock Market Bubble Will Burst Like An Overinflated Balloon [View article]
    11146471,

    I think you should look at the empirical evidence and not some random profile pics. Valuations are near all time highs.....the numbers don't lie!
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A​n Option Strategy ​For Beaten Offshore Drillers [View article]
    Anyone who recommends selling naked options simply doesn't understand risk and randomness in the financial markets. There's absolutely no other way I can put it.

    By selling naked options you make pennies for a while but end up losing dollars - a great way to go bankrupt if you ask me. I'd rather buy options, meaning I lose pennies but once in a while make dollars.

    My rule is simple: If something doesn't have an asymmetric payoff (more upside than downside), I simply don't trade it. I wish more people would follow my advice, it would certainly save them a lot of money in the long run.
    Mar 24, 2015. 04:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Will Bottom In 3 Weeks: A Comprehensive Analysis Of Domestic Oil Production [View article]
    If everyone thinks the price of something will go up - it has already been priced in - which means there is a higher probability of the price going down.

    I've already written about how literally no one knows for sure where the price of oil is going. For those interested, here is a link to that article:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 23, 2015. 05:51 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Panic Sold MusclePharm (And Why You Should Tread Carefully) [View article]
    "Can't they just pay off the debt with more debt?"

    You mean like our government?
    Mar 18, 2015. 06:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Have No Idea Where Oil Prices Are Going (And Neither Do You) [View article]
    Robert Mattei,

    "Are you confident that Oil will remain volatile?"

    In the long run, it is reasonable to assume that oil - like all commodities - will be volatile - although, like you said, predicting price volatility is not easy. This is why I always set up my trades so that, even if I am 100% wrong, I can't lose very much money (which is the beauty of asymmetric payoffs).
    Mar 8, 2015. 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
873 Comments
888 Likes