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Boris Marjanovic  

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  • There Will Be No Oil Storage Crisis In 2015 [View article]
    Nobody has any idea where oil is going, everyone (even the experts) is just guessing. Of course, some guesses will turn out to be correct, but it doesn't mean that the person who ended up guessing correctly is a "skilled" oil price forecaster. If you had thousands of monkeys forecasting the price of oil, I can guarantee that some of them would end up being correct!

    Here is an article in which I show the so-called "expert predictions" and how hillariously wrong they were: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:27 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Stock Market Bubble Will Burst Like An Overinflated Balloon [View article]
    CaliforniaG,

    "You're missing the fact that the big banks now have to comply with the Fed CCAR (stress tests) under Dodd Frank to continue to operate under adverse economic conditions. They didn't have to have as much capital reserves in 2007."

    Banks get into trouble at least once a decade, and it has been that way for a very, very, very long time. The more things change, the more they stay the same. These banks will find a brand new way to screw things up again, and when they do, their enormous size has the potential to crash the whole global economy.
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Stock Market Bubble Will Burst Like An Overinflated Balloon [View article]
    11146471,

    I think you should look at the empirical evidence and not some random profile pics. Valuations are near all time highs.....the numbers don't lie!
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A​n Option Strategy ​For Beaten Offshore Drillers [View article]
    Anyone who recommends selling naked options simply doesn't understand risk and randomness in the financial markets. There's absolutely no other way I can put it.

    By selling naked options you make pennies for a while but end up losing dollars - a great way to go bankrupt if you ask me. I'd rather buy options, meaning I lose pennies but once in a while make dollars.

    My rule is simple: If something doesn't have an asymmetric payoff (more upside than downside), I simply don't trade it. I wish more people would follow my advice, it would certainly save them a lot of money in the long run.
    Mar 24, 2015. 04:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Will Bottom In 3 Weeks: A Comprehensive Analysis Of Domestic Oil Production [View article]
    If everyone thinks the price of something will go up - it has already been priced in - which means there is a higher probability of the price going down.

    I've already written about how literally no one knows for sure where the price of oil is going. For those interested, here is a link to that article:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 23, 2015. 05:51 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Panic Sold MusclePharm (And Why You Should Tread Carefully) [View article]
    "Can't they just pay off the debt with more debt?"

    You mean like our government?
    Mar 18, 2015. 06:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Have No Idea Where Oil Prices Are Going (And Neither Do You) [View article]
    Robert Mattei,

    "Are you confident that Oil will remain volatile?"

    In the long run, it is reasonable to assume that oil - like all commodities - will be volatile - although, like you said, predicting price volatility is not easy. This is why I always set up my trades so that, even if I am 100% wrong, I can't lose very much money (which is the beauty of asymmetric payoffs).
    Mar 8, 2015. 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Have No Idea Where Oil Prices Are Going (And Neither Do You) [View article]
    David,

    "The fact that prices fell because of an oversupply caused by HF was not a great surprise to those paying attention."

    If it was so obvious, then why didn't people start placing enormous bets against oil? Maybe it's just me (and my greed), but had I expected a 50%+ crash in the price of the world's most traded commodity, I would have profited from it.
    Mar 5, 2015. 02:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Have No Idea Where Oil Prices Are Going (And Neither Do You) [View article]
    DWD Investing,

    "One guy actually had 20 A's before his business name."

    That is hilarious!
    Mar 5, 2015. 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Have No Idea Where Oil Prices Are Going (And Neither Do You) [View article]
    Hhmiles,

    "If you have no idea where prices are going [and neither do your readers], it makes no sense to place any bets -- or recommend that others do -- including on options for reasons as simple as transaction costs."

    Minimal transaction costs is your reason to avoid placing asymmetric bets? Are you serious? If yes, then it is obvious you don't know very much about trading.
    Mar 5, 2015. 11:00 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Have No Idea Where Oil Prices Are Going (And Neither Do You) [View article]
    quantcoyote,

    My partner named the company. The name comes from one of his father's old companies. The "A" was put first so people could find it easier in the phone-book (back when everyone used them). Also, the original search engines ranked results based on alphabetical order (so it would always be one of the first search results). That is why the name is what it is. However, we usually just call it "ANI." Short and easy to remember.
    Mar 5, 2015. 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Have No Idea Where Oil Prices Are Going (And Neither Do You) [View article]
    Hhmiles,

    Think before you comment next time! You made yourself look very foolish and ignorant right now. I explained that oil fluctuates widely over time, which makes it a great trading vehicle. If you keep placing bets (with an asymmetric payoff) you can make the right directional call less than half the time and still generate profits. In other words, it is not necessary to know where oil prices are going!
    Mar 5, 2015. 10:16 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From A Dozen Years Of Short Selling [View article]
    Free Wary,

    "Or you could sell options, in other words, become the casino."

    I don't think you should compare selling options to a casino. Remember, a casino's maximum losses are always capped. Over a large number of games, the house will always win.... and not a single person can win such a huge amount of money gambling to cause the casino to go bankrupt.

    But selling options (naked options, not covered calls) leaves you vulnerable to blowing up. It is a very stupid strategy. Using this strategy you make pennies for a long time and then blow up and lose dollars. I hope people don't listen to your bad advice.
    Mar 1, 2015. 05:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From A Dozen Years Of Short Selling [View article]
    daro,

    I completely agree. Shorting has unlimited downside potential and limited upside potential. It's common sense! Simply buying put options caps the downside and provides much more upside (because of the leverage). In other words, puts offer you an asymmetric payoff, which is exactly what you want.

    Anyone who shorts stocks, even if they make money 90% of the time (although I doubt anyone is this good), is simply making pennies to one day - when a black swan event hits - lose dollars. Let the fools short if they wish, but I personally would advise against it.
    Feb 28, 2015. 03:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Chart Is Worth 1,000 Words [View article]
    "Absolutely. Swiss banks are already charging negative interest."

    Never understood why people would "pay" someone to hold their money. If anyone want's to pay me to hold their money in a safe place for them I would be happy to. Just send me a private message to reach me!
    Feb 27, 2015. 08:09 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
880 Comments
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