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Boris Marjanovic  

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  • Fear Is Saying Short SPY Now [View article]
    What Doc's Trading meant to say was that he is up 0.900% (as in <1%) in the past 12 months. So it was just a simple "misprint."
    Apr 3, 2015. 09:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is Why You Are Diversifying Wrong [View article]
    Hedgewise,

    Yes, using your stock/bond combination increases your overall Sharpe Ratio....but the Sharpe Ratio uses standard deviation as a proxy for "risk." Without getting too technical, you could have a very high Sharpe Ratio and still end up going bust as a result of some black swan event (this is especially true given your recommendation to use leverage). Simply put, in the real world, true risk cannot be measured. That's why using these kinds of "unhedged" investment strategies is more dangerous than it might appear.

    Personally, I always cap my maximum losses at, say, 10%. This way no random black swan event can hurt me because I know my maximum potential worst-case scenario loss. My risk-reduction strategy might not be as mathematically elegant as yours, but I can guarantee you that it's far more robust and safe in the long run. Remember, no matter how low the volatility (or standard deviation) of your portfolio is, if you don't have the proper hedge in place, there is always a chance that your portfolio could lose 40%, 50%, or more in a single day.
    Apr 3, 2015. 08:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks close with losses to end the quarter [View news story]
    Up today, down tomorrow....the market is inherently unpredictable and irrational:http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 31, 2015. 09:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On the hour [View news story]
    Up today, down tomorrow....the market is inherently unpredictable and irrational: http://bit.ly/1BJlFvO
    Mar 31, 2015. 04:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Stock Market Bubble Will Burst Like An Overinflated Balloon [View article]
    BunnyColvin,

    You are correct, buybacks are also one reason why valuations are in bubble territory right now.
    Mar 31, 2015. 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks stake broad gains, helped by China and health care deals [View news story]
    Can you provide a link to that article?
    Mar 30, 2015. 10:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks stake broad gains, helped by China and health care deals [View news story]
    This stock market bubble keeps growing: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 30, 2015. 08:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellen: Gradual rate hikes likely this year [View news story]
    Raising rates, even slightly, will almost certainly pop this overinflated stock market bubble: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 29, 2015. 09:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks snap four-day losing streak, but week's losses worst since January [View news story]
    Raising rates, even slightly, will almost certainly pop the current stock market bubble: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 29, 2015. 09:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Stock Market Bubble Will Burst Like An Overinflated Balloon [View article]
    DavidLMO,

    "The Fed did NOT do a helicopter drop. Had they done one rather than pissing away 3 + trillion on QE and their stupid ZIRP, some good might have been done to the real economy rather than simply pumping up stocks."

    But they have to "pump up" the stock market to give the illusion that things are going well. Let me tell you one thing.... if the economy was truly doing well like we are led to believe, we wouldn't continue taking on trillions in new debt every year. This whole thing is a house of cards that will crash eventually.
    Mar 27, 2015. 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Stock Market Bubble Will Burst Like An Overinflated Balloon [View article]
    Learner16,

    "I agree the market looks somewhat overvalued, but a full-blown bear market seems unlikely as there seems to be no chance of a recession short term."

    There seemed no chance of a recession in early 2007 either.....by the end of 2007 we were in a recession. If we knew a recession was going to hit, say, six months from now, the stock market would adjust for it today. Unfortunately, we never know about these things until it's too late.
    Mar 27, 2015. 09:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Stock Market Bubble Will Burst Like An Overinflated Balloon [View article]
    5731311,

    I have no idea what your statement has to do with my article. Whether or not they compete for funds is not the point.... the point is we are in a stock market bubble right now.
    Mar 27, 2015. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Stock Market Bubble Will Burst Like An Overinflated Balloon [View article]
    "Currently the US banks, at least, are quite safe from any trouble, as far as I can tell."

    They appeared quite "safe" in early 2007 as well, and look what ended up happening! Even the people running these banks don't fully understand the risks they are taking on (and they don't need to anyway since they get paid no matter what happens).
    Mar 26, 2015. 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Stock Market Bubble Will Burst Like An Overinflated Balloon [View article]
    compuirv,

    "Is it a suggestion to sell everything and start from that point?"

    I would never suggest such a crazy thing (mostly for tax reasons though). I just described a simple strategy that people can use, it's their choice if and how they want to implement it. Although you do have to have a basic understanding of options and hedging to use this strategy.
    Mar 26, 2015. 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Stock Market Bubble Will Burst Like An Overinflated Balloon [View article]
    rreeuwijk,

    You have to value the S&P 500 the same way you value a company - based on "normalized" earnings because profit margins can fluctuate wildly from year to year. The "E" in the Shiller P/E ratio is a very good proxy for normalized earnings.

    No one can deny that profit margins are at an all-time high as of this moment. They will eventually revert to their historical mean, and when that happens, stock prices will suffer.
    Mar 26, 2015. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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