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Boris Marjanovic

 
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  • Netflix Is A Ticking Time Bomb Ready To Explode [View article]
    Glenn,

    Netflix catalogue will continue to weaken because now the company is forced to spread out its minimal resources to also buy foreign content. This will limit the company's long-term subscriber growth as well.
    Nov 6, 2014. 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Ticking Time Bomb Ready To Explode [View article]
    RealDutch,

    Yes, Netflix's obligations are growing several times faster than its membership base. However, even with these enormous investments in movies and tv shows, the amount of actual content on Netflix is still very, very small.
    Nov 3, 2014. 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Ticking Time Bomb Ready To Explode [View article]
    RealDutch,

    "Analysts expect earnings (growth) in 2015."

    If everybody reading this actually saw what laughable methods analysts use to make forecasts they would never pay attention to these charlatans ever again. It's literally guesswork in an excel spreadsheet... it's a total joke.
    Nov 3, 2014. 03:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Ticking Time Bomb Ready To Explode [View article]
    Glenn,

    I agree, there is a high probability that Netflix will collapse within a couple of years. The sad thing is that a rising stock price causes most investors to become delusional and ignore the truth. It was the same with the recent financial crisis - people ignored the obvious signs of a very fragile financial system that was bound to collapse eventually simply because house prices continued to go up, until it all ended in an epic crash. The same will happen with Netflix and I (as well as a few other smart traders) will be there to profit from it.
    Nov 2, 2014. 04:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Ticking Time Bomb Ready To Explode [View article]
    Joe,

    Redbox is another source!
    Nov 1, 2014. 06:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Ticking Time Bomb Ready To Explode [View article]
    Glenn,

    A major difference between Amazon and Netflix is that Netflix has no durable competitive advantage. Another big difference is that Netflix has enormous obligations (most of it hidden off the balance sheet) which makes the company very financially fragile. You are correct, the market can stay irrational for decades, so betting against a company based purely on valuation concerns is a bad bet. However, in the case of Netflix I am betting against the company because it is very fragile. Like a structurally deficient bridge, it only take small stressors to cause a catastrophic collapse. There is no need to predict which event will cause this collapse, everything that is fragile will eventually break. It could take 5 years of me making small losing bets, but when the collapse does occur, my returns will more than make up for it. As the famous option trader Nassim Taleb says, it is better to lose pennies to make dollars than to lose dollars to make pennies.
    Nov 1, 2014. 06:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Ticking Time Bomb Ready To Explode [View article]
    Say What,

    Netflix has no advantage at all. Sure, they have lots of subscribers, but there is no customer stickiness as we have already seen on a number of different occasions. Every time the company slightly raises prices people start cancelling their subscriptions in large numbers. Also, since basically all of Netflix's content is non-exclusive, it doesn't have an advantage there either. Overall, this company is destined to fail in the long run.
    Nov 1, 2014. 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Ticking Time Bomb Ready To Explode [View article]
    elfie,

    Making precise projections is impossible, and not necessary. All I can tell you is that Netflix's free cash flow will remain negative. That's all you need to know because it will force the company to take on more debt which will make it even more fragile.
    Nov 1, 2014. 02:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Ticking Time Bomb Ready To Explode [View article]
    canigetanamenooneused,

    It tells you in the 10-Qs and 10-Ks the amount of content obligations due in less than 12 months. Just search for the "streaming content obligations" section.
    Nov 1, 2014. 11:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Ticking Time Bomb Ready To Explode [View article]
    pauldeba,

    "Netflix is far from bankruptcy."

    I know many companies that were "far from bankruptcy" and ended up going bankrupt!
    Nov 1, 2014. 11:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Ticking Time Bomb Ready To Explode [View article]
    Thank you for the compliment!
    Oct 31, 2014. 10:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Ticking Time Bomb Ready To Explode [View article]
    Nick,

    I also laugh when I read comments saying that Netflix will be acquired. They don't realize that nobody wanted to buy Netflix back in 2011 when its valuation dropped to ~$4 billion. Why would they pay 6x that much for it now? These Netflix bulls must be delusional!
    Oct 31, 2014. 08:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Ticking Time Bomb Ready To Explode [View article]
    TraderFool,

    When you buy a put, the rising stock price will not hurt you since your maximum loss is capped at the small premium you pay for the contract. A rising stock price can only hurt you if you short-sell, which I mentioned in the article that Investors should not do.
    Oct 31, 2014. 08:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Ticking Time Bomb Ready To Explode [View article]
    Sartrian,

    Many of these companies, like Google and Amazon for example, are already in the streaming business, and there is more competition every day. All I was trying to say is that Netflix's growth potential is not as large as the bulls want people to believe.
    Oct 31, 2014. 05:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Ticking Time Bomb Ready To Explode [View article]
    Aceinmysleeve,

    "Netflix has complete control of FCF"

    No they don't... the cost of content (the main drag on cash flow) is not something they have control over. Sure, they could reduce the amount of content they buy, but it would also "reduce" their subscriber base.
    Oct 31, 2014. 04:35 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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