Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Boris Marjanovic  

View Boris Marjanovic's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Intelligent Investing Is (Literally) Child's Play! [View article]
    UncleEddie,

    Buffett was enormously lucky in life. He had massive advantages that 99.9999% of people will never have. If he was born today he - even if he used the same investment style - he would never achieve the same track record.
    Feb 15, 2015. 09:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intelligent Investing Is (Literally) Child's Play! [View article]
    abdullah999,

    The reason some value investors perform better than average is because value investing requires one to be patient and trade infrequently. And as I mentioned in this article, portfolio turnover is the best predictor of long term returns.
    Feb 15, 2015. 06:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intelligent Investing Is (Literally) Child's Play! [View article]
    Craig Mauk,

    For a lot of people I would simply suggest they buy a simple ETF that tracks the S&P 500 index. But I would never go as far as to say that ETFs are the best investment vehicle out there. After all, many ETFs simply track indexes and these indexes are flawed. For example, one of the major flaws with the S&P 500 is that it is market-cap weighted. Of course, there is now an equally weighted S&P 500 ETF which fixes this problem. But there are still other flaws that need to be fixed. So simply creating a superior index fund is perhaps the best solution for those who want the highest long term investment returns with minimal risk.
    Feb 15, 2015. 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intelligent Investing Is (Literally) Child's Play! [View article]
    T Rail Investor,

    That is a perfectly reasonable question. Our hedge fund is a quant fund. We don't research stocks. We know that regular index funds beat most professionals. But most index funds are flawed in their design. So we simply built a superior index fund. Simply put, the best way to beat index funds is to create a better index fund. That is where we add value.
    Feb 15, 2015. 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intelligent Investing Is (Literally) Child's Play! [View article]
    Michael Boyd,

    It literally doesn't matter what you compare Pro articles' performance to, it doesn't change the point I was trying to make. I simply showed that doing no research at all works just as well, and often even better, than wasting time researching stocks.

    In fact, often times when people research stocks their human biases and flaws actually cause them to pick the worst ones. The only way to solve this problem is to randomly pick stocks or build a quantitative model to do it for you based on some set of rules (like valuation, etc.).
    Feb 15, 2015. 04:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intelligent Investing Is (Literally) Child's Play! [View article]
    User 8202401,

    "I could never trust a strategy that randomly picks stocks. All it takes is a very poor streak of 3 years or so and I can virtually be wiped out and maybe never make it back."

    If you just stick to randomly picking stocks from the S&P 500 you'll be fine. If you construct an equally weighted portfolio of, say, 10 to 20 stocks it will usually match or even beat the market. The chances of you being virtually "wiped out" using this method are not much greater than when you buy an index fund or ETF that tracks the market.

    The truth is almost any strategy can work in the long run, as long as you don't trade too much. As I proved in this article, there is no need to waste time researching stocks....it simply does not improve performance.
    Feb 15, 2015. 04:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    marydugan,

    The financial markets are one area where the bell cruve does not work well. For example, 1000 year market events happen very regularly, making the bell curve a very dangerous tool to use to measure risk. This is why a lot of the financial institution went bust back in 2008, because of flawed math like that.
    Feb 10, 2015. 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    statisticool,

    Nassim actually made a lot of money trading. The strategy he used was to bet on black swan events. Most years you will lose a small amount of money (the cost of the options contract) but some years you will make enormous sums of money when things go wrong in the market, and they always go wrong given enough time. I admit, it's not a strategy for everyone but it works well if you can be patient.
    Jan 26, 2015. 05:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    Mrs. Sippi,

    He actually does advocate a barbell-type approach. For example, he mentions it's a great idea to do 60% index fund and 40% bonds.
    Jan 26, 2015. 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can Oil Go? Signals Of A Bottom Are Flashing [View article]
    What will oil prices do over the next year, you ask? They will fluctuate!
    Jan 26, 2015. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    Tao Jaxx,

    The barbell can be set up many different ways. Perhaps an easier way for most investors, as you mentioned, is to do a mixture of index funds and bonds. Perhaps one could do something like 60% index funds and 40% bonds, which would be rebalanced every year. Something like this could work well no matter what is going on in the market.
    Jan 26, 2015. 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    Ravi Kumar Menon,

    It's a great book. Another similar book is "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Taleb. Check it out when you can!
    Jan 26, 2015. 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    jimcasey,

    I agree, a contrarian investment style can work very well over the long run. Still, it is much better to set up a quantitative model and do it that way than to go out and research individual stocks. Simply buying a basket of low valuation stocks (based on P/E, P/B, or any other variable) will work extremely well and most likely beat the market.
    Jan 23, 2015. 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    Market Map,

    I use a barbell strategy. Most of my assets are invested using a systematic passive approach. A small amount is used to make high risk bets. That's why I published some of those articles you mentioned.
    Jan 23, 2015. 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    RWMostow,

    "Are we discussing capital appreciation, or dividend income."

    I was discussing both capital appreciation + dividend income.

    You could, for example, build a portfolio consisting of 10-20 companies with the longest dividend-paying track records. This information is easy to find and screen for. It's a simple passive strategy and will do well in the long run.
    Jan 23, 2015. 01:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
862 Comments
865 Likes