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Boris Marjanovic  

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  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    michaelheme,

    "That's why there are billionaire investors, and investors that lose their retirement savings. Should we wait expectantly for Warren Buffett or Bill Gates to "revert to the mean"?"

    There are millions of investors and business-owners in the world and only a small handfull are very very rich - just like if you had millions of coin-flippers a small number of them would, by luck alone, flip heads 50x in a row!

    Also, Buffett and Gates were both born into rich and successful families and had enormous advantages in life. In fact, both Buffett and Gates has personally stated on many occasions on how lucky the've been.

    Gates, for example, went to one of the only schools in the country to house a computer....which allowed to him to spend countless hours programming (and getting really good at it).

    Buffett, on the other hand, started investing at a time where inside information was basically legal. Moreover, people didn't have easy access to SEC filings so it made the market very inefficient (and easier to beat). If Buffett was starting today he would never be able to achieve the same performance.
    Jan 23, 2015. 12:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    SpanglerDavis,

    "If the market is random then why does almost every reasonable trend following model provide reasonable to better results than holding an equity or balanced index?"

    Which trend following model are you referring to exactly?

    "As to Syrians and people of color, their placement on this earth was not random at all and there is no luck involved. They are the unfortunate receivers of cruelty on a grand scale which all of us should positively act in a way to prohibit from happening again in the future."

    They are the "unfortunate receivers of cruelty" you said....in other words, they are "unlucky." So, on an individual basis, luck plays a huge role as I said, and you basically confirmed.
    Jan 23, 2015. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    Builder,

    It simply means that people - like those who choose to drive a car instead of fly in a plane - have an "illusion of control." In other words, they think they can control how a particular portfolio will perform, but it's an illusion of control" because luck, chance, randomness plays a huge role when it comes to investment returns.
    Jan 23, 2015. 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    mc2406,

    It's a great book, somewhat similar to Taleb's Fooled by Randomness.
    Jan 23, 2015. 11:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    Another great book! But it might be a little too complex for the average investor I think.
    Jan 23, 2015. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    Jerbear,

    Read it! Great book!
    Jan 23, 2015. 10:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    Buyandhold 2012,

    "We make our own luck by making the correct decisions."

    We make our own luck, you say? Well, what about the 150k Syrian's who were brutally murdered over the past several years? Did they "make their own luck" by choosing to be born in Syria? What if you were an African American, or a woman for that matter, born in the U.S. 100 years ago? Would you have the rights that you have now? Would you even be investing? I can go on and on...

    The truth of the matter is that luck plays an enormous role in our lives. Nobody can chose where they are born, who their parents are, or many of the other countless things that contribute to success - it's all out of our control - it's all luck.
    Jan 23, 2015. 10:27 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    Mr. Capitalist,

    Yes, but these patterns are only visible over very long periods of time. In the short term there are patterns too, but they are mostly random ones.
    Jan 23, 2015. 10:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    hotpbwiki,

    Finding random patterns and trends is easy in any data rich environment. Understanding this randomness in financial market is not rocket science, I agree - it's even more complicated!
    Jan 23, 2015. 10:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    Mitchad2,

    It is not impossible to beat the market. After all, the market is simply an index that tracks a basket of stocks. So the easiest way to beat something like, say, the S&P 500 is to construct an even better index. It's that easy! However, personally I see absolutely no reason to go out and research individual stocks when a systematic approach is easier and performs just as well, if not better.
    Jan 23, 2015. 10:12 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    papita,

    Thank you for the compliment it truly means a lot!
    Jan 23, 2015. 10:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    Sujan,

    I have read all of Taleb's work, including his research papers. If you are interested in books on randomness, I suggest you pick up "Dance with Chance," it's another great read.
    Jan 23, 2015. 10:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Risk Reward Shows Market In The Toilet For 2015 [View article]
    Bradley,

    "oil supply hit record high in the 4th qtr and no end in sight we need to see shut in wells and help from opec to stabilize this decline"

    Such a vague answer. You know who else gives vague answers about the future? Charlatan fortunetellers! If you're honestly as good at forecasting as you said you were, please tell me the "exact" price oil will be at in 6 months. Don't avoid the question. I'm waiting......
    Jan 22, 2015. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Risk Reward Shows Market In The Toilet For 2015 [View article]
    Bradley,

    If you knew that oil was going to drop more than 50% over a very short time frame I can guarantee you would have written about it (as well as made enormous profits betting against oil). Nobody expected this crash, simple as that. As they say, hindsight is always 20/20. It seems to me you're better at "postdicting" than predicting.
    Jan 22, 2015. 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Risk Reward Shows Market In The Toilet For 2015 [View article]
    Nobody can accurately predict when the market will crash...just like nobody predicted, or even expected, the 2014 oil crash. This is because each event is influenced by trillions (and probably an infinite) number of variables. We don't even know what most of the variables are, so it's no wonder we can't accurately predict anything, and we shouldn't even try.

    The wisest thing a trader/investor can do is to always own out-of-the-money puts on the market. Most years they will expire worthless. But when the actual crash does occur your payoff will be enormous and more than make up for those long years of small losses.
    Jan 21, 2015. 07:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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