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Boris Marjanovic  

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  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    jimcasey,

    I agree, a contrarian investment style can work very well over the long run. Still, it is much better to set up a quantitative model and do it that way than to go out and research individual stocks. Simply buying a basket of low valuation stocks (based on P/E, P/B, or any other variable) will work extremely well and most likely beat the market.
    Jan 23, 2015. 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    Market Map,

    I use a barbell strategy. Most of my assets are invested using a systematic passive approach. A small amount is used to make high risk bets. That's why I published some of those articles you mentioned.
    Jan 23, 2015. 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    RWMostow,

    "Are we discussing capital appreciation, or dividend income."

    I was discussing both capital appreciation + dividend income.

    You could, for example, build a portfolio consisting of 10-20 companies with the longest dividend-paying track records. This information is easy to find and screen for. It's a simple passive strategy and will do well in the long run.
    Jan 23, 2015. 01:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    michaelheme,

    "That's why there are billionaire investors, and investors that lose their retirement savings. Should we wait expectantly for Warren Buffett or Bill Gates to "revert to the mean"?"

    There are millions of investors and business-owners in the world and only a small handfull are very very rich - just like if you had millions of coin-flippers a small number of them would, by luck alone, flip heads 50x in a row!

    Also, Buffett and Gates were both born into rich and successful families and had enormous advantages in life. In fact, both Buffett and Gates has personally stated on many occasions on how lucky the've been.

    Gates, for example, went to one of the only schools in the country to house a computer....which allowed to him to spend countless hours programming (and getting really good at it).

    Buffett, on the other hand, started investing at a time where inside information was basically legal. Moreover, people didn't have easy access to SEC filings so it made the market very inefficient (and easier to beat). If Buffett was starting today he would never be able to achieve the same performance.
    Jan 23, 2015. 12:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    SpanglerDavis,

    "If the market is random then why does almost every reasonable trend following model provide reasonable to better results than holding an equity or balanced index?"

    Which trend following model are you referring to exactly?

    "As to Syrians and people of color, their placement on this earth was not random at all and there is no luck involved. They are the unfortunate receivers of cruelty on a grand scale which all of us should positively act in a way to prohibit from happening again in the future."

    They are the "unfortunate receivers of cruelty" you said....in other words, they are "unlucky." So, on an individual basis, luck plays a huge role as I said, and you basically confirmed.
    Jan 23, 2015. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    Builder,

    It simply means that people - like those who choose to drive a car instead of fly in a plane - have an "illusion of control." In other words, they think they can control how a particular portfolio will perform, but it's an illusion of control" because luck, chance, randomness plays a huge role when it comes to investment returns.
    Jan 23, 2015. 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    mc2406,

    It's a great book, somewhat similar to Taleb's Fooled by Randomness.
    Jan 23, 2015. 11:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    Another great book! But it might be a little too complex for the average investor I think.
    Jan 23, 2015. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    Jerbear,

    Read it! Great book!
    Jan 23, 2015. 10:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    Buyandhold 2012,

    "We make our own luck by making the correct decisions."

    We make our own luck, you say? Well, what about the 150k Syrian's who were brutally murdered over the past several years? Did they "make their own luck" by choosing to be born in Syria? What if you were an African American, or a woman for that matter, born in the U.S. 100 years ago? Would you have the rights that you have now? Would you even be investing? I can go on and on...

    The truth of the matter is that luck plays an enormous role in our lives. Nobody can chose where they are born, who their parents are, or many of the other countless things that contribute to success - it's all out of our control - it's all luck.
    Jan 23, 2015. 10:27 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    Mr. Capitalist,

    Yes, but these patterns are only visible over very long periods of time. In the short term there are patterns too, but they are mostly random ones.
    Jan 23, 2015. 10:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    hotpbwiki,

    Finding random patterns and trends is easy in any data rich environment. Understanding this randomness in financial market is not rocket science, I agree - it's even more complicated!
    Jan 23, 2015. 10:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    Mitchad2,

    It is not impossible to beat the market. After all, the market is simply an index that tracks a basket of stocks. So the easiest way to beat something like, say, the S&P 500 is to construct an even better index. It's that easy! However, personally I see absolutely no reason to go out and research individual stocks when a systematic approach is easier and performs just as well, if not better.
    Jan 23, 2015. 10:12 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    papita,

    Thank you for the compliment it truly means a lot!
    Jan 23, 2015. 10:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    Sujan,

    I have read all of Taleb's work, including his research papers. If you are interested in books on randomness, I suggest you pick up "Dance with Chance," it's another great read.
    Jan 23, 2015. 10:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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