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Boris Marjanovic  

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  • I Have No Idea Where Oil Prices Are Going (And Neither Do You) [View article]
    Robert Mattei,

    "Are you confident that Oil will remain volatile?"

    In the long run, it is reasonable to assume that oil - like all commodities - will be volatile - although, like you said, predicting price volatility is not easy. This is why I always set up my trades so that, even if I am 100% wrong, I can't lose very much money (which is the beauty of asymmetric payoffs).
    Mar 8, 2015. 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Have No Idea Where Oil Prices Are Going (And Neither Do You) [View article]
    David,

    "The fact that prices fell because of an oversupply caused by HF was not a great surprise to those paying attention."

    If it was so obvious, then why didn't people start placing enormous bets against oil? Maybe it's just me (and my greed), but had I expected a 50%+ crash in the price of the world's most traded commodity, I would have profited from it.
    Mar 5, 2015. 02:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Have No Idea Where Oil Prices Are Going (And Neither Do You) [View article]
    DWD Investing,

    "One guy actually had 20 A's before his business name."

    That is hilarious!
    Mar 5, 2015. 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Have No Idea Where Oil Prices Are Going (And Neither Do You) [View article]
    Hhmiles,

    "If you have no idea where prices are going [and neither do your readers], it makes no sense to place any bets -- or recommend that others do -- including on options for reasons as simple as transaction costs."

    Minimal transaction costs is your reason to avoid placing asymmetric bets? Are you serious? If yes, then it is obvious you don't know very much about trading.
    Mar 5, 2015. 11:00 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Have No Idea Where Oil Prices Are Going (And Neither Do You) [View article]
    quantcoyote,

    My partner named the company. The name comes from one of his father's old companies. The "A" was put first so people could find it easier in the phone-book (back when everyone used them). Also, the original search engines ranked results based on alphabetical order (so it would always be one of the first search results). That is why the name is what it is. However, we usually just call it "ANI." Short and easy to remember.
    Mar 5, 2015. 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Have No Idea Where Oil Prices Are Going (And Neither Do You) [View article]
    Hhmiles,

    Think before you comment next time! You made yourself look very foolish and ignorant right now. I explained that oil fluctuates widely over time, which makes it a great trading vehicle. If you keep placing bets (with an asymmetric payoff) you can make the right directional call less than half the time and still generate profits. In other words, it is not necessary to know where oil prices are going!
    Mar 5, 2015. 10:16 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From A Dozen Years Of Short Selling [View article]
    Free Wary,

    "Or you could sell options, in other words, become the casino."

    I don't think you should compare selling options to a casino. Remember, a casino's maximum losses are always capped. Over a large number of games, the house will always win.... and not a single person can win such a huge amount of money gambling to cause the casino to go bankrupt.

    But selling options (naked options, not covered calls) leaves you vulnerable to blowing up. It is a very stupid strategy. Using this strategy you make pennies for a long time and then blow up and lose dollars. I hope people don't listen to your bad advice.
    Mar 1, 2015. 05:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From A Dozen Years Of Short Selling [View article]
    daro,

    I completely agree. Shorting has unlimited downside potential and limited upside potential. It's common sense! Simply buying put options caps the downside and provides much more upside (because of the leverage). In other words, puts offer you an asymmetric payoff, which is exactly what you want.

    Anyone who shorts stocks, even if they make money 90% of the time (although I doubt anyone is this good), is simply making pennies to one day - when a black swan event hits - lose dollars. Let the fools short if they wish, but I personally would advise against it.
    Feb 28, 2015. 03:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Chart Is Worth 1,000 Words [View article]
    "Absolutely. Swiss banks are already charging negative interest."

    Never understood why people would "pay" someone to hold their money. If anyone want's to pay me to hold their money in a safe place for them I would be happy to. Just send me a private message to reach me!
    Feb 27, 2015. 08:09 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Market Randomness [View article]
    MarketTrendSignals,

    I think you better read the whole article next time before making foolish comments.

    "The daily market moves are random noise, but over a long time the market follows its rules and exhibit a pattern."

    I said in the short run the market is random (i.e., anything can happen). In the long run, however, the market does seem to have more wining days than losing days, which means there is a long term upward trend.

    Again, read the entire article next time before commenting please, you made yourself look pretty silly right now.
    Feb 24, 2015. 07:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intelligent Investing Is (Literally) Child's Play! [View article]
    David Van Knapp,

    "As the commenter above, I don't understand your distinction between stock picking by humans and stock picking by quant models. Didn't humans create the quant models?"

    There is extensive research on this topic. It's an undeniable fact that simple quant models crush humans. This is because the models are very systematic. They do the same thing over and over again. They never panic (like humans do). If built properly, they will usually pick stocks that me or you would tend to avoid because of our inherent flaws and biases (but the stocks we avoid tend to perform the best). There are also many other reasons why quant models consistently outperform. I will need to write an article on this topic soon.
    Feb 17, 2015. 09:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intelligent Investing Is (Literally) Child's Play! [View article]
    Jerbear,

    "Is 60/40 really a good ratio given the state of the bond market and the Fed anxious to raise?"

    The beauty of this strategy is that it requires no prediction making. When the market does well you make money. When the market crashes, investors rush into bonds driving up bond prices and your overall losses are minimized (and you might even turn a profit). Historically this strategy has generated 9-10% per annum returns, which beats most hedge funds.
    Feb 17, 2015. 09:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intelligent Investing Is (Literally) Child's Play! [View article]
    JandL55@yahoo.com,

    "Boris, have you looked at Jim's (your highly paid assistant) portfolio if it was held for several years instead of a new port each year?"

    I have and the performance was actually better when you do less frequent rebalancing. I guess we are in a strong bull market so most stocks will go up, regardless of which ones you pick.

    "Some argue against your article by saying they do well on options and I assume they do. But for every winner there is a loser. So what does it prove?"

    As I explained at the start of this article - everyone is above average in their own minds. Everyone says they have an amazing track record until you look at their actual performance.
    Feb 17, 2015. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intelligent Investing Is (Literally) Child's Play! [View article]
    Nitebreed,

    "No such thing as luck."

    I guess there is no such thing as lottery winners either.
    Feb 17, 2015. 10:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intelligent Investing Is (Literally) Child's Play! [View article]
    Robert Duval,

    I want to offer you a challenge. Pick any 10 stocks from the S&P 500 index that you think will do the worst over the next 12 months. This means that I want you to actually try your best to lose (i.e., to underperform) the market. If you play this game for a few years you will see that some years you will "accidentally" outperform the market. This will prove to you that luck is enormously important when it comes to investment success.
    Feb 17, 2015. 10:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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