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Boris Marjanovic

 
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  • Is Apple The Most Important Stock On Earth? [View article]
    Constable,

    I used to work with a lot of Wall Street analysts when I was starting out in the investment business and I was disgusted by what I saw. Most of those estimates, forecasts, and projections you read about are a total joke disguised as something that looks important.

    I used to know a tech analyst who actually won a bunch of "awards" for his "excellent" research. When he would come up with fair value estimates, for example, he would first guess what the company is worth (usually 20% to 30% above the current stock price) and then he would play around with his forecasts and DCF models to match his predetermined fair value estimate.

    Simply put, people should not listen to Wall Street analysts... these guys are the biggest charlatans in the world.
    Dec 4, 2014. 10:00 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple The Most Important Stock On Earth? [View article]
    Citi,

    It's always funny to see these so called "analysts" raising their price targets when a stock is going up, or lowering them when a stock is going down. Anybody who listens to these charlatans deserves to lose money.
    Dec 3, 2014. 09:28 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: A Story Of A Buy And Hold [View article]
    Apple is NOT a buy and hold investment, in my opinion. This is basically a hardware company with no durable competitive advantage. Once people get bored of Apple products the company's revenues and profits will be cut drastically.

    Honestly, what do we have to look forward to with Apple over the long-term? An iPhone 25? iWatch 14? Same boring products with slightly larger screen sizes and other marginal improvements. No more innovation at this company like there once was.
    Sep 15, 2014. 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economic Castle Rating: Superior Than The Moat [View article]
    I have worked with many Wall Street analysts who used DCF to value the companies they cover, and to be honest it is a complete joke. Almost every time they would come up with the fair value in their heads (what they think the stock should trade at), and then they would adjust their free cash flow forecast and discount rate to match that "fair value" they came up with. The truth is that DCF is a poor valuation tool and can be easily manipulated by just making tiny changes to the inputs.
    May 12, 2014. 11:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economic Castle Rating: Superior Than The Moat [View article]
    You mentioned in the article that you use a 3-stage DCF model to value companies… I assume you do a 15-20 year forecast, maybe even longer than that. The problem with DCF is that it only works in theory. In theory, if we knew a company’s precise future cash flows, we would know its precise value (assuming we all used the same discount rate). But since humans are terrible at forecasting, DCF is something we should rarely use, unless it’s a bond or annuity type of investment where we know the cash flow stream. Simple multiple-based valuation methodologies are far superior to any DCF-based valuation method. This is also why your Economic Castle Rating, while a very interesting idea, will not work very well in the real world.
    May 12, 2014. 10:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Significantly Undervalued [View article]
    An 11% earnings yield is attractive even if we see no growth. This stock is cheap no matter how you look at it! Growth would just be icing on the cake.
    Mar 12, 2013. 03:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Significantly Undervalued [View article]
    My formula is good because its simple. No precision required (unlike a DCF model). Precision is simply not possible contrary to what most academics believe. It gives you an "approximate" answer. If you use a large margin of safety you will do very well over the long run. Also, unlike most models, it takes into account a company's capital structure. That's why a company with a low P/E can be expensive even if it has a high growth rate.
    Mar 12, 2013. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Does Not Have $137 Billion In Cash [View article]
    Apple is super cheap, be patient it will pay off. If you cannot handle the short-term volatility use put options to hedge your position.
    Mar 4, 2013. 11:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Does Not Have $137 Billion In Cash [View article]
    This is like me writing an article called: "Apple does not only make iPhones." Its pointless, everyone knows this already.
    Mar 4, 2013. 11:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Does Not Have $137 Billion In Cash [View article]
    This is one of the most ridiculous articles I have read in a long time. Please take a look at the 10k and see what "long-term investments" are composed of. Reply here when you get the answer. Apple could easily liquidate its long-term investments and turn them into cash.
    Mar 4, 2013. 10:33 PM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Trading At 2.56x 2016 Cash Flow [View article]
    People, you must realize that Apples market cap is over $500 billion! Large institutions already own most of the shares. Even if Apple is cheap, its very difficult to move the stock without institutions investing $10's of billions at a time. That's one bad thing about being so large, in my opinion. If Apple had a smaller market cap, I can almost guarantee it would have a much higher price/earnings ratio.
    Dec 11, 2012. 01:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Trading At 2.56x 2016 Cash Flow [View article]
    Its no secret it leaked out.
    Dec 11, 2012. 12:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Trading At 2.56x 2016 Cash Flow [View article]
    I have also talked to some people in China and they told me that Apple products really aren't as popular as they are here. People there prefer Samsung products, according to them.
    Dec 10, 2012. 10:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Trading At 2.56x 2016 Cash Flow [View article]
    Apple has already said they are coming out with an iPhone 5s in June of 2013. This is getting old, in my opinion. Once upon a time this company came out with new and innovative products now its just the same old thing every few months. I personaly wont buy the 5s, I will wait for the 13s to come out in a few years lol.
    Dec 10, 2012. 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Trading At 2.56x 2016 Cash Flow [View article]
    I have a feeling Apple will eventually turn into something like HP by making a ton of worthless acquisitions just to fuel growth.
    Dec 10, 2012. 10:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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