Brad Ferris

Has Buffett Lost His Mind?

I think its a simple situation of Buffett realizing the worth of a well run company and having little problem overpaying (by today's standards) for future earnings that will be much higher than today's. He has shown this ability time & time again because he rationalizes his purchases different than most investors. BNI is a very good company, but don't except 30% returns for the next 10 years; it's not that type of company. What it will offer is a very good operating foundation for BRK to diversify out of so much insurance and consumer products companies. Essentially someone has to ship all that Coke, Kraft Dinner and JNJ Baby Shampoo :)

Chinese Exports: Can Emerging Markets Replace the U.S. Consumer?

Emerging markets won't replace the US consumer in the next 5 years, but certainly the trends in population & economic growth indicate that they'll play a much bigger role in how goods and services are targeted by international companies. The US consumer (and government) has many problems right now, but EM's aren't in a position, yet, to take over as the dominant consumer over the next few years.

If This Is a Recovery...

Taxes are going to rise or new taxes will be created as all levels of government attempt to deal with their revenue shortfalls.

Global Markets in Review: Stocks Still in Rally Mode, For Now

This rally has been remarkable, but with unemployment so high (and still rising) I think the earnings will be the continuing force driving markets higher. If earnings don't grow at a rate that the market feels is either sustainable or indicative for a true recovery then we could see a substantial pull back of 10-15% over the next few months.

3 Must-Know Options Strategies for Dividend Investors

Good introductory content on options. I agree with DGI though on reading Taleb for insights into how options work and how to make them profitable in your investing activities.

An Investor's Guide to Corporate Bonds

Jake2: I didn't recommend LQD nor suggested it was my "first choice". I simply listed some options for investors that had a relatively cheap MER and had diversification in different sectors.

Being down 5.92% on a group of corporate bonds over the past six months would have beaten the market handily. Did you include distributions?

An Investor's Guide to Corporate Bonds

Thomas: Thanks.

Jimmy: Bonds are issued by companies at a part value - what an investor pays includes costs and commissions and can be more or less on the open market. Feel free to take the time to re-write your own post on corporate bonds highlighting all this "misinformation" and we'll compare notes.

Taking Stock in Pfizer Inc.

I appreciate the honest comments Chasam.

There are items in the full analysis that don't appear in this public analysis that add important insights into the company. One example would be the situational analysis which in my view is quite positive on the company's future prospects. My views on the Wyeth deal I make no effort at hiding: I think it stinks. I think PFE overpaid for a set of assets that just replace Lipitor's revenues and add to the clutter of their product portfolio.

I'm not opposed to management wanting to get lean & mean; my concern is the speed & severity of the cutting that current management have taken. Pfizer operates in an industry where intellectual capital comes at a premium: Genentech has benefited from greatly from a certain ex-Pfizer employee leaving (who had an important role in developing Lipitor).

Kindler is a gifted manager and has a strong background in operations. I just question the acquisition at this point in their restructuring and the price they paid.

Securing Cheap Financing May Just Be Canadian National Railway's Biggest Asset

CNR is the Canadian ticker on the TSX and the common name I use for the company since I am a Canadian author. If you notice early in my original post (on my site) I refer to Canadian National Railway as (CNR;CNI). The Seeking Alpha editors took that out. As for my disclosure I own CNR (TSX), not CNI (NYSE).

Steering Clear of Stryker; Larger Medical Device Cos Are Better Positioned

Stryker is diversified in about a 60/40 split between their large Ortho products & other medical supply/device products. They are still largely dependent on Orthopedic implants for the majority of their business and in an economically sensitive environment companies (hospitals) may be more conservative in their capital expenditures for medical stretchers, endoscopy supplies or OR materials.

The point I am making is no company is economically insensitive and when evaluating Stryker an investor needs to be aware of all revenue sources for the company and the economic challenges each segment faces.

Manulife Financial: Enduring Value

Mark - On my website I have a series titled, "Taking Stock in IGM" where I publish a version of my stock analysis process. While it's conducted for a Canadian company this is a process I repeat for all stocks I own/analyze.

Parsing Crocs' Income Statement

That's a great analysis Jae - especially demonstrating how poor the numbers in the Income Statement are for Crocs.

Margins matter and I think investors don't pay enough attention to them. That's where money really matters for companies and you can have all the hype in the world for a product or service, but margins always tell the story about the sustainability of the business model.

Steering Clear of Stryker; Larger Medical Device Cos Are Better Positioned

Captainess,

I like your reference to stocks/industries as economically sensitive. I often refer to them as "Recession Resistant" rather than the frequently used "proof". I wrote about this on my blog a few months ago also. Proof gives the perception that something is invincible and no company has that luxury (to my knowledge). As great as a moat may be, it is still susceptible to economic pressures from costs, revenues & inflation.

Steering Clear of Stryker; Larger Medical Device Cos Are Better Positioned

Thanks for the comment andyn. I still think the company will post a profitable 2009, but with expectations high I feel the market could possibly punish the stock if it's not able to meet its targets.

Thank Goodness the Banks Aren't Lending!

Very well written post!