Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Brad Kenagy  

View Brad Kenagy's Articles BY TICKER:
  • ETF To Avoid: Guggenheim S&P Global Dividend Opportunities ETF
    Thu, Mar. 26 LVL 8 Comments

    Summary

    • After examining the Guggenheim S&P Global Dividend Opportunities ETF, I believe investors should avoid this high-yielding global ETF.
    • The fund has significantly underperformed over multiple time frames and it has the highest fees among its competitors.
    • Without a serious cost cut or index change I believe the ETF could potentially be closed in the future.
  • ETF To Avoid: Tuttle Tactical Management U.S. Core ETF
    Tue, Mar. 24 TUTT 24 Comments

    Summary

    • After examining the Tuttle Tactical Management U.S. Core ETF I believe potential investors should avoid this new ETF.
    • The fund is not diversified, it uses leveraged ETFs, and has the highest fees among its competitors.
    • The fund could significantly cut its costs if it were to consolidate a significant amount of overlapping of funds.
  • Joy Global: Headwinds Point To Another 5 Years Of Underperformance
    Tue, Mar. 24 JOY 2 Comments

    Summary

    • I constructed a process to screen for companies that I believe will underperform the S&P 500 over the next 5 years.
    • Going through my process, I found that Joy Global was most likely to underperform over the next five years.
    • Joy Global is facing several headwinds to its largest business.
  • Small-Cap Deep Value Play Of The Year: Strattec Security
    Wed, Mar. 18 STRT Comment!

    Summary

    • With the success of my Large-Cap Deep value selection, I searched for Small-Cap Deep Value plays.
    • I found four potential Small-Cap Deep Value Candidates from my search.
    • I chose to focus on Strattec Security because it was the most undervalued, and has fallen the most out of my candidates.
  • T-Mobile: The Preferred Way To Own Shares Long-Term
    Fri, Mar. 13 TMUS 10 Comments

    Summary

    • T-Mobile common stock does not pay a dividend. However, the preferred stock issued at the end of 2014 is currently yielding 4.65%.
    • The preferred stock is highly correlated to the common stock, and further upside will also drive further upside in the value of the preferred.
    • Based on its recent performance, and the potential for a rate hike induced correction, hedging a long position in T-Mobile is worth considering.
  • Morgan Stanley: Significant Dividend Increase Likely After Stress Test Results
    Sun, Mar. 1 MS 7 Comments

    Summary

    • I examined financial metrics for companies that were included in the Federal Reserve stress test to see how they have improved or not improved over the last year.
    • Morgan Stanley was the only company that met all the qualities that I looked for.
    • Based on the current earnings, and improvements over the last year, I believe Morgan Stanley can double its dividend again this year.
  • Examining Stocks With A Low Supply Of Stock For Trading
    Thu, Feb. 26 TTFS, DIA 12 Comments

    Summary

    • I examined the supply of shares available for trading for all the companies in the Dow.
    • The data shows that those companies with a low percentage of shares available have posted the highest returns over the last five years.
    • There are some special cases where a low percentage of shares available is not ideal.
  • Mallinckrodt: Strong Growth From Transformative Acquisitions Paying Off
    Tue, Feb. 24 MNK 27 Comments

    Summary

    • Mallinckrodt's recently reported earnings show that the acquisitions of Questcor, and Cadence Pharmaceuticals have been beneficial to shareholders.
    • Mallinckrodt is continuing to invest in R&D for its high margin businesses, and is looking to divest it slow growth, low margin business.
    • Currently shares of Mallinckrodt are undervalued based on my calculations.
  • Carl Icahn's Apple Price Target Appears Unrealistic
    Thu, Feb. 19 AAPL 220 Comments

    Summary

    • After examining Carl Icahn's Apple Proposal, I found five issues with some of the assumptions he made in the proposal.
    • The five issues I found were related to the Repatriation tax rate, debt interest, flat dividends, inflated buybacks and flat debt.
    • After going step by step through each issue, I estimated the value for shares of Apple to be higher than the current price, but lower than Carl Icahn's price target.
  • Constructing A Globally Diversified Low Volatility Portfolio
    Thu, Feb. 12 ACWV, PFF, BND 9 Comments

    Summary

    • I constructed a globally diversified low volatility portfolio that covers: U.S. Stocks, International Stocks, U.S Bonds, International Bonds, Income, and Rising Rates.
    • Through my process I found five ETFs to build my portfolio that would cover the globe, and have low volatility.
    • The portfolio I constructed has outperformed a comparable multi-asset ETF.
  • Applying Momentum To The Holdings Of Berkshire Hathaway
    Wed, Feb. 11 BRK.A, BRK.B 24 Comments

    Summary

    • I looked at the holdings from Berkshire Hathaway that had the largest increases in shares.
    • Return data showed that after six months the largest increased holdings only slightly outperformed the S&P 500.
    • By adding a momentum overlay, the outperformance grew significantly.
  • Marriott International: A Potential Short Squeeze Play
    Tue, Feb. 10 MAR 7 Comments

    Summary

    • I screened for companies with a large short-interest, dividend growth and share repurchases, and found that Marriott was one of two companies which passed my criteria.
    • I took a deeper look at the financials, buybacks, dividend, short interest, and technical picture for Marriott to get a more complete picture.
    • Marriott is reporting earnings on February 18th, and with 6.42% of its float short, there is potential for a short squeeze.
  • Slow Growth Dividend Stocks: To Reinvest Or Not To Reinvest?
    Tue, Feb. 3 CRM, IBM 16 Comments

    Summary

    • I looked at an example of whether income investors should reinvest dividends or invest those dividends in a high-growth company.
    • For my example, I used IBM as my slow-growth choice and Salesforce as my high-growth selection.
    • The data for my example shows that using dividends to buy a growth company exceeded the returns of reinvesting those dividends.
  • Deep Value Play Of The Year: Helmerich & Payne
    Thu, Jan. 29 HP 91 Comments

    Summary

    • I examined the requirements of the Deep Value ETF to create my own screen for companies considered deep value plays.
    • After running through the screen I found seven potential deep value plays in the S&P 500.
    • Out of the seven companies I found the only one that was currently undervalued was Helmerich & Payne.
  • Examining Pensions Of The Dow Components
    Thu, Jan. 22 DIS, JNJ, MMM 5 Comments

    Summary

    • After seeing the release of AT&T having a massive pension charge, I decided to look at pensions for all Dow Stocks.
    • I found that for those companies that pay a pension, the ones with the lowest pension percentage outperformed those with a higher pension percentage.
    • The big picture from the data I collected was that, in general, those companies that pay a pension significantly under-performed those companies that do not pay a pension.
  • WisdomTree Earnings, Valuation And Technical Outlook
    Wed, Jan. 21 WETF 6 Comments

    Summary

    • I compiled data to estimate earnings that WisdomTree will be reporting in two weeks.
    • I calculated the value of WisdomTree by using projected earnings & growth estimates, and calculated that my target price is 18.20% above current levels.
    • I examined a technical chart for WisdomTree and found that shares have been range bound and have the potential to break out and test all-time highs this year.
  • 2 Dividend Growth Companies Poised To Beat Earnings In January
    Thu, Jan. 15 GK, HAR 2 Comments

    Summary

    • I searched for companies that are reporting earnings in January that have the potential to beat estimates and raise dividends.
    • From the finalists of my screen, I examined each company based on dividend growth and earnings history.
    • I found two companies that beat earnings estimates, and grow dividends, and are worth considering prior to earnings.
  • The Best Japan ETF For The Long-Term, Hint: It's Not DXJ
    Wed, Jan. 7 DXJR 5 Comments

    Summary

    • I examine the Japan Hedged Real Estate ETF.
    • I compared the performance of the Japan Hedged Real Estate ETF to the DXJ, and the un-hedged EWJ.
    • Based on the policies of the BOJ, and Japan's Pension fund, along with the underlying fundamentals I believe the Japan Hedged Real Estate ETF will be a long-term winner.
  • Dividends And Buybacks: 2014 Review And 2015 Picks
    Tue, Jan. 6 CHRW, RNR, LOW 2 Comments

    Summary

    • I review my 2014 stock picks for my dividends & buybacks strategy.
    • My strategy performed well excluding one holding that dragged down performance of the portfolio.
    • For my 2015 stock picks, I found four stocks, which met my new and improved strategy criteria.
  • 2015 Hot Diggity Dogs Of The Dow
    Sun, Jan. 4 JNJ, MSFT, NKE 14 Comments

    Summary

    • I reviewed my 2014 Hot Diggity Dogs of The Dow.
    • My strategy outperformed both the Dow & The Dogs of The Dow for the 7th time in eight years.
    • I examined each of the Dow Stocks and applied my dividend and technical strategy to find this year's three stock picks.
  • My 2015 Value Stock Picks
    Dec. 31, 2014 AFG, ALL, SIGI 84 Comments

    Summary

    • I review my 2015 value stock picks.
    • After reviewing last year's picks, I added more screening criteria, and I once again screened for companies that met my criteria for being considered in this year's class.
    • I examined each of my three value stocks I found to be the most undervalued in each market cap segment.
  • My 2015 Growth Stock Picks
    Dec. 29, 2014 GILD, MEI, PII 18 Comments

    Summary

    • I review my 2014 Growth Stock Picks.
    • After reviewing last years picks, I once again screened for companies that met my criteria for being considered in this years class.
    • I examined each of my three Growth stocks I found to be the most undervalued in each market cap segment.
  • Ubiquiti Networks: Catching A Falling Knife
    Dec. 14, 2014 UBNT 19 Comments

    Summary

    • I screened for companies that are considered a "falling knife" using updated criteria from a previous article.
    • I found that only Ubiquiti Networks met all my criteria.
    • I examined the risks, positives, and valuation for Ubiquiti Networks and determined that Ubiquiti Networks is worth considering.
  • Buy And Hold: The Perfect And The Imperfect
    Dec. 4, 2014 SPY 6 Comments

    Summary

    • I examined buy-and-hold strategies for four hypothetical investors.
    • I made some interesting observations when looking at the data for the "perfect" and the "worst" buy-and-hold investors.
    • Based on my data, I determined the optimal time to buy the market is in the first four months of the year.
  • The Strongest Stress-Tested Energy Stocks
    Dec. 3, 2014 CVX, NOV 10 Comments

    Summary

    • After the recent decline in crude oil price, I screened for energy stocks.
    • I put an emphasis on screening for larger companies that had a low debt/capital ratio, the ability to pay off any short-term expenses, and a low dividend payout ratio.
    • I valued each of the companies on my final list using stressed metrics to accommodate the fast and steep decline in oil prices.
  • Alcoa: The 'Preferred' Way To Own Shares
    Nov. 17, 2014 AA 16 Comments

    Summary

    • I examine the mandatory convertible preferred shares of Alcoa that were recently issued.
    • To asses the future value of the preferred shares at the time of conversion I estimated a fair value for the common shares of Alcoa.
    • The mandatory convertible preferred shares of Alcoa I believe represent a good value for bullish Alcoa investors who are looking for: Income, Downside Protection, while still having upside participation.
  • Finally! A Cyber Security ETF
    Nov. 13, 2014 HACK 40 Comments

    Summary

    • I examine the new Cyber ETF that was launched yesterday.
    • I examined an index which tracks the security risks that cyber security professionals see.
    • The new Cyber Security ETF fills a market need, and I believe will gather significant assets over time.
  • Searching The Stars For Quality Stocks
    Nov. 12, 2014 CMCSA, GILD, PCAR 6 Comments

    Summary

    • I screened for the highest rated ETFs in the large cap space to find common holdings.
    • From the common holdings of the ETFs, I eliminated those that had underperformed the S&P 500 over the last year, and that I determined were overvalued.
    • Four companies made it past all my tests and they were: Gilead, Ameriprise, Comcast, and Paccar.
  • Building A Portfolio That Is S.M.A.R.T.
    Nov. 5, 2014 VNQ, VTI, MUB 8 Comments

    Summary

    • I examined a number of different asset allocation models to come up with the S.M.A.R.T. portfolio.
    • The five asset classes in most models were: Stocks, Municipal Bonds, Alternatives, Real Estate, and Cash.
    • I constructed my S.M.A.R.T. portfolio with 5 ETFs, and found that it significantly outperformed an asset allocation ETF with similar asset weights as my portfolio.
  • The Case For McDonald's Potential Acquisition Of Chipotle: If You Can't Beat Them..Buy Them
    Oct. 24, 2014 MCD 55 Comments

    Summary

    • After the recent quarter where McDonald's disappointed on earnings I look at a potential acquisition of Chipotle.
    • With the healthy eating trend clearly hurting McDonald's they need to do something to be able to compete in the healthy food space.
    • I conduct a three step process to estimate what Chipotle is worth, how McDonald's would finance the acquisition, and estimate what the "New McDonald's" would be worth.
  • REITs And Muni Bonds: Top Performers In Recent Sell-Off
    Oct. 16, 2014 AGNC, AWR, HCN 1 Comment

    Summary

    • I screened for stocks and ETFs that closed up each of previous five trading days.
    • I found that 6 stocks and 5 ETFs met my screen criteria, and looked for any investment themes that were present.
    • What I found was that during the recent market sell off, REITs and municipal bonds were the top performers.
  • 2 Short Candidates: Molycorp And McDermott
    Oct. 8, 2014 MDR, MCP 44 Comments

    Summary

    • In the wake of the GT Advanced Technologies bankruptcy, I screened for companies with similar characteristics of GT Advanced Technologies.
    • My screen found two companies that had similar fundamental characteristics, and those two companies were Molycorp & McDermott.
    • I looked at some key underlying fundamentals for each company, and I also looked at the technical outlook of each as well.