Seeking Alpha

Brad Kenagy

 
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  • Ubiquiti Networks: Catching A Falling Knife
    Sun, Dec. 14 UBNT 16 Comments

    Summary

    • I screened for companies that are considered a "falling knife" using updated criteria from a previous article.
    • I found that only Ubiquiti Networks met all my criteria.
    • I examined the risks, positives, and valuation for Ubiquiti Networks and determined that Ubiquiti Networks is worth considering.
  • Buy And Hold: The Perfect And The Imperfect
    Thu, Dec. 4 SPY 6 Comments

    Summary

    • I examined buy-and-hold strategies for four hypothetical investors.
    • I made some interesting observations when looking at the data for the "perfect" and the "worst" buy-and-hold investors.
    • Based on my data, I determined the optimal time to buy the market is in the first four months of the year.
  • The Strongest Stress-Tested Energy Stocks
    Wed, Dec. 3 CVX, NOV 10 Comments

    Summary

    • After the recent decline in crude oil price, I screened for energy stocks.
    • I put an emphasis on screening for larger companies that had a low debt/capital ratio, the ability to pay off any short-term expenses, and a low dividend payout ratio.
    • I valued each of the companies on my final list using stressed metrics to accommodate the fast and steep decline in oil prices.
  • Alcoa: The 'Preferred' Way To Own Shares
    Mon, Nov. 17 AA 13 Comments

    Summary

    • I examine the mandatory convertible preferred shares of Alcoa that were recently issued.
    • To asses the future value of the preferred shares at the time of conversion I estimated a fair value for the common shares of Alcoa.
    • The mandatory convertible preferred shares of Alcoa I believe represent a good value for bullish Alcoa investors who are looking for: Income, Downside Protection, while still having upside participation.
  • Finally! A Cyber Security ETF
    Thu, Nov. 13 HACK 36 Comments

    Summary

    • I examine the new Cyber ETF that was launched yesterday.
    • I examined an index which tracks the security risks that cyber security professionals see.
    • The new Cyber Security ETF fills a market need, and I believe will gather significant assets over time.
  • Searching The Stars For Quality Stocks
    Wed, Nov. 12 CMCSA, GILD, PCAR 6 Comments

    Summary

    • I screened for the highest rated ETFs in the large cap space to find common holdings.
    • From the common holdings of the ETFs, I eliminated those that had underperformed the S&P 500 over the last year, and that I determined were overvalued.
    • Four companies made it past all my tests and they were: Gilead, Ameriprise, Comcast, and Paccar.
  • Building A Portfolio That Is S.M.A.R.T.
    Wed, Nov. 5 VNQ, VTI, MUB 8 Comments

    Summary

    • I examined a number of different asset allocation models to come up with the S.M.A.R.T. portfolio.
    • The five asset classes in most models were: Stocks, Municipal Bonds, Alternatives, Real Estate, and Cash.
    • I constructed my S.M.A.R.T. portfolio with 5 ETFs, and found that it significantly outperformed an asset allocation ETF with similar asset weights as my portfolio.
  • The Case For McDonald's Potential Acquisition Of Chipotle: If You Can't Beat Them..Buy Them
    Fri, Oct. 24 MCD 55 Comments

    Summary

    • After the recent quarter where McDonald's disappointed on earnings I look at a potential acquisition of Chipotle.
    • With the healthy eating trend clearly hurting McDonald's they need to do something to be able to compete in the healthy food space.
    • I conduct a three step process to estimate what Chipotle is worth, how McDonald's would finance the acquisition, and estimate what the "New McDonald's" would be worth.
  • REITs And Muni Bonds: Top Performers In Recent Sell-Off
    Thu, Oct. 16 AGNC, AWR, HCN 1 Comment

    Summary

    • I screened for stocks and ETFs that closed up each of previous five trading days.
    • I found that 6 stocks and 5 ETFs met my screen criteria, and looked for any investment themes that were present.
    • What I found was that during the recent market sell off, REITs and municipal bonds were the top performers.
  • 2 Short Candidates: Molycorp And McDermott
    Wed, Oct. 8 MDR, MCP 40 Comments

    Summary

    • In the wake of the GT Advanced Technologies bankruptcy, I screened for companies with similar characteristics of GT Advanced Technologies.
    • My screen found two companies that had similar fundamental characteristics, and those two companies were Molycorp & McDermott.
    • I looked at some key underlying fundamentals for each company, and I also looked at the technical outlook of each as well.
  • Free Cash Flow Champions Part 2: Priceline And F5 Networks
    Wed, Oct. 1 PCLN, FFIV 12 Comments

    Summary

    • I looked through every company in the S&P 500 to see if there were any companies that have had increasing free cash flow every year.
    • I found that only 3 companies out of the whole S&P 500 have increased free cash flow each of the last 10 years.
    • In part 1 of my series I focused on Oracle which was the only dividend payer, and in this article I will be focusing on Priceline & F5 Networks.
  • Free Cash Flow Champions Part 1: Oracle
    Tue, Sep. 30 ORCL 6 Comments

    Summary

    • I looked through every company in the S&P 500 to see if there were any companies that have had increasing free cash flow every year.
    • I found that only 3 companies out of the whole S&P 500 have increased free cash flow each of the last 10 years.
    • Out of 3 companies Oracle was the only dividend payer, and is the company I will focus on in this article. In part 2 I will cover the non-dividend payers.
  • Las Vegas Vacation Investment Ideas
    Fri, Sep. 19 ALK, BA, CZR Comment!

    Summary

    • I looked for investment ideas on my recent trip to Las Vegas.
    • I looked at three aspects of my trip: My flight, hotel, and casinos.
    • What I found was that Alaska Airlines & Boeing were the best long ideas, and Caesars Entertainment was the best short idea.
  • United Rentals: Poised For Long-Term Growth
    Wed, Sep. 3 URI 15 Comments

    Summary

    • I looked at shares of United Rentals after a recent trip to one of its locations.
    • I focused on three areas of emphasis: the underlying business, value, and technical outlook.
    • What I found was that United Rentals is set up for long-term growth because of the strength of its underlying businesses, as well as recent acquisition.
  • STMicroelectronics: A Play On Mobileye Growth
    Wed, Sep. 3 STM 16 Comments

    Summary

    • I found that STMicroelectronics manufactures the chips that Mobileye uses in its products.
    • For investors who are have an issue with the high valuation of Mobileye, STMicroelectronics may be a way to capture Mobileye growth at a discount.
    • Shares of both Mobileye & STMicroelectronics could see action tomorrow because Mobileye has its first earnings report tomorrow before the bell.
  • FlexShares RAVI: Beating PIMCO At Its Own Game
    Wed, Aug. 27 RAVI 4 Comments

    Summary

    • I conducted research on ETFs with Ultra-Short Maturities that investors consider to be "money market equivalent" ETFs.
    • I examined the allocation, limitations, and performance of each ETF.
    • Surprisingly, what I found was that RAVI performed the best, and PIMCOs MINT was the biggest underperformer.
  • Adding Corporate Profits To The Market Cap-GDP Ratio
    Mon, Aug. 25 SPY 5 Comments

    Summary

    • I modified the Total Market Cap to Real GDP ratio by adding corporate profits to the equation.
    • Each of the previous two stock market bubbles was preceded by 2 straight quarters of profit declines, and in Q1 of this year profits declined.
    • When adding corporate profits to the equation I found that the ratio was above the 2007 market bubble but still significantly below the 2000 market bubble.
  • A Diversified, All Hedged ETF Portfolio
    Mon, Aug. 18 DBEF, DBEM, HYHG 7 Comments

    Summary

    • I construct a portfolio composed entirely of ETFs built in hedges.
    • The asset classes the portfolio consists of are: US, Developed Markets, and Emerging Markets Stocks. Investment grade and High Yield bonds.
    • The three types of risks hedged in my portfolio are: Market Risk, Currency Risk, and Interest Rate Risk.
  • A New ETF That Is Like The VIX For High Yield Bonds
    Tue, Aug. 12 WYDE 53 Comments

    Summary

    • A recent ETF launch by ProShares gives investors the option to hedge a high yield bond position using Credit Default Swaps.
    • WYDE is unlike inverse bond ETFs because it does not have the problem of compounding daily, and WYDE is expected to pay a quarterly dividend as well.
    • Since WYDE was just launched last week, investors should wait and see how the ETF trades and if it gains traction.
  • ADT Corp.: A Potential Short Squeeze Play
    Tue, Jul. 29 ADT 9 Comments

    Summary

    • I screened for companies with a large short-interest, dividend growth and share repurchases, and found that ADT was the only company which passed my criteria.
    • I took a deeper look at the financials, buybacks, dividend, short interest, and technical picture for ADT to get a more complete picture.
    • ADT is reporting earnings on Wednesday, and with 19.16% of its float short, there is potential for a large short squeeze.
  • Constructing A Simple Defensive Portfolio
    Tue, Jul. 29 DEF, BLV, UUP 4 Comments

    Summary

    • I searched for ETFs that have shown to have low volatility in the short-term, and the long-term.
    • I then looked at how 14 select ETFs from different areas of focus performed during the last four years where a correction occurred.
    • I found that based on historical corrections the three areas of focus that performed the best were: Defensive Equities, Long-Term Bonds, and the U.S. Dollar.
  • 3 Small-Cap Dividend Growth Stocks Hedge Funds Love
    Tue, Jul. 22 DGRO, GMT, GURX 3 Comments

    Summary

    • I searched for common holdings of a dividend growth ETF, and a hedge fund ETF to see which companies were in both.
    • I found that three companies were in both ETFs, and I looked at the historical dividend growth, performance, and valuation of each.
    • Out of the 3 companies I found, only GMT currently has an attractive valuation.
  • Potential Targets For Activist Investors
    Thu, Jul. 17 IEP 38 Comments

    Summary

    • I use a multi-step process to search for companies that meet certain fundamental criteria, and have corporate governance issues.
    • I focused on those companies specifically that had a "red-flag" for takeover defenses.
    • After my running though my multi-step process, I found that four companies could be potential activist, or takeover targets.
  • Projecting Bond Total Returns For Rising Rates
    Tue, Jul. 15 HYLD, SJNK, HYS 17 Comments

    Summary

    • I attempt to estimate the total returns that bond ETFs will have when interest rates start rising.
    • I created a simple formula that anyone can use to estimate how much a bond ETF or mutual fund could rise/fall.
    • Based on my findings, areas worth looking at are Short-Term high yield corporate bonds, and ultra short bond ETFs are worth looking at.
  • NQ Mobile Trading Playbook
    Tue, Jul. 8 NQ 46 Comments

    Summary

    • With recent news that the audit chairwoman for NQ Mobile resigned I thought it would be a good idea to create a "playbook" of trade ideas for everyone.
    • I construct four trades: Bearish, Bullish, Neutral, and Event Driven.
    • Going forward the audit results will either crush the stock, or shoot it higher because the stock is heavily shorted.
  • Berkshire Value Screen, Only 1 Survivor
    Thu, Jul. 3 BRK.A, HES, BRK.B 22 Comments

    Summary

    • I will be using a multi-step process to search for companies that have value characteristics that could possibly make them attractive to Berkshire Hathaway.
    • I focus on companies that have similar value characteristics to the top holdings of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio.
    • My Search culminated with only one company passing my value screen, and other tests.
  • Potential Acquisition Targets For Berkshire Hathaway
    Wed, Jun. 25 BRK.B, BRK.A 65 Comments

    Summary

    • I will be using a multi-step process to search for a small list of companies that might be the next large acquisition target of Berkshire Hathaway.
    • I focus on companies that have similar characteristics to the top holdings of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio.
    • My final list of 6 stocks includes one stock that Berkshire Hathaway already has a stake it.
  • Best Of Breed Part 5: Industrials
    Tue, Jun. 24 MMM 5 Comments

    Summary

    • I looked at the holdings of the Industrial SPDR to find the "best-of-breed" stock in the sector.
    • I combined fundamentals, corporate governance, and CEO approval to determine the best stock in the sector.
    • The stock I determined that was "best-of-breed" has consistently outperformed its sector ETF, and has been a strong dividend growth stock.
  • Market At New Highs, Go Bear Hunting: Sears Holdings
    Mon, Jun. 23 SHLD 136 Comments

    Summary

    • I use a two-step process of fundamental & various screening criteria along with CEO approval ratings to find companies that could have a bearish future.
    • After running through my two step process the one company I focused on was Sears Holdings.
    • When taking a deeper look at Sears Holdings, the fundamental, and technical outlook I believe paint a bearish future for the stock.
  • Best Of Breed Part 4: Financials And Healthcare
    Fri, Jun. 20 JNJ, USB, XLF 4 Comments

    Summary

    • I look at the holdings of the Financial SPDR and the Health Care SPDR to find the "best-of-breed" stock in each sector.
    • I combined fundamentals, corporate governance, and CEO approval to determine the best stock in each sector.
    • The two stocks I determined were "best-of-breed" have significantly outperformed their respective sectors, and one is a Dividend Aristocrat.
  • Best Of Breed Part 3: Energy And Materials
    Wed, Jun. 11 MON, XLE, XLB Comment!

    Summary

    • I look at the holdings of the Energy SPDR and the Materials SPDR to find the "best-of-breed" stock in each sector.
    • I combined fundamentals, corporate governance, and CEO approval to determine the best stock in each sector.
    • The two stocks I determined were "best-of-breed" have significantly outperformed their respective sectors, and have both shown strong dividend growth.
  • Best Of Breed Part 2: Staples And Discretionary
    Fri, Jun. 6 TWX, KO, XLP Comment!

    Summary

    • I look at the holdings of the Consumer Staples SPDR and the Consumer Discretionary SPDR to find the "best-of-breed" stock in each sector.
    • I combined fundamentals, corporate governance, and CEO approval to determine the best stock in each sector.
    • The two stocks I determined were "best-of-breed" have Under performed their respective sectors, however they have shown strong dividend growth.