Seeking Alpha

Brad Kenagy

 
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  • REITs And Muni Bonds: Top Performers In Recent Sell-Off
    Thu, Oct. 16 AGNC, AWR, HCN 1 Comment

    Summary

    • I screened for stocks and ETFs that closed up each of previous five trading days.
    • I found that 6 stocks and 5 ETFs met my screen criteria, and looked for any investment themes that were present.
    • What I found was that during the recent market sell off, REITs and municipal bonds were the top performers.
  • 2 Short Candidates: Molycorp And McDermott
    Wed, Oct. 8 MDR, MCP 40 Comments

    Summary

    • In the wake of the GT Advanced Technologies bankruptcy, I screened for companies with similar characteristics of GT Advanced Technologies.
    • My screen found two companies that had similar fundamental characteristics, and those two companies were Molycorp & McDermott.
    • I looked at some key underlying fundamentals for each company, and I also looked at the technical outlook of each as well.
  • Free Cash Flow Champions Part 2: Priceline And F5 Networks
    Wed, Oct. 1 PCLN, FFIV 12 Comments

    Summary

    • I looked through every company in the S&P 500 to see if there were any companies that have had increasing free cash flow every year.
    • I found that only 3 companies out of the whole S&P 500 have increased free cash flow each of the last 10 years.
    • In part 1 of my series I focused on Oracle which was the only dividend payer, and in this article I will be focusing on Priceline & F5 Networks.
  • Free Cash Flow Champions Part 1: Oracle
    Tue, Sep. 30 ORCL 6 Comments

    Summary

    • I looked through every company in the S&P 500 to see if there were any companies that have had increasing free cash flow every year.
    • I found that only 3 companies out of the whole S&P 500 have increased free cash flow each of the last 10 years.
    • Out of 3 companies Oracle was the only dividend payer, and is the company I will focus on in this article. In part 2 I will cover the non-dividend payers.
  • Las Vegas Vacation Investment Ideas
    Fri, Sep. 19 ALK, BA, CZR Comment!

    Summary

    • I looked for investment ideas on my recent trip to Las Vegas.
    • I looked at three aspects of my trip: My flight, hotel, and casinos.
    • What I found was that Alaska Airlines & Boeing were the best long ideas, and Caesars Entertainment was the best short idea.
  • United Rentals: Poised For Long-Term Growth
    Wed, Sep. 3 URI 15 Comments

    Summary

    • I looked at shares of United Rentals after a recent trip to one of its locations.
    • I focused on three areas of emphasis: the underlying business, value, and technical outlook.
    • What I found was that United Rentals is set up for long-term growth because of the strength of its underlying businesses, as well as recent acquisition.
  • STMicroelectronics: A Play On Mobileye Growth
    Wed, Sep. 3 STM 14 Comments

    Summary

    • I found that STMicroelectronics manufactures the chips that Mobileye uses in its products.
    • For investors who are have an issue with the high valuation of Mobileye, STMicroelectronics may be a way to capture Mobileye growth at a discount.
    • Shares of both Mobileye & STMicroelectronics could see action tomorrow because Mobileye has its first earnings report tomorrow before the bell.
  • FlexShares RAVI: Beating PIMCO At Its Own Game
    Wed, Aug. 27 RAVI 4 Comments

    Summary

    • I conducted research on ETFs with Ultra-Short Maturities that investors consider to be "money market equivalent" ETFs.
    • I examined the allocation, limitations, and performance of each ETF.
    • Surprisingly, what I found was that RAVI performed the best, and PIMCOs MINT was the biggest underperformer.
  • Adding Corporate Profits To The Market Cap-GDP Ratio
    Mon, Aug. 25 SPY 5 Comments

    Summary

    • I modified the Total Market Cap to Real GDP ratio by adding corporate profits to the equation.
    • Each of the previous two stock market bubbles was preceded by 2 straight quarters of profit declines, and in Q1 of this year profits declined.
    • When adding corporate profits to the equation I found that the ratio was above the 2007 market bubble but still significantly below the 2000 market bubble.
  • A Diversified, All Hedged ETF Portfolio
    Mon, Aug. 18 DBEF, DBEM, HYHG 7 Comments

    Summary

    • I construct a portfolio composed entirely of ETFs built in hedges.
    • The asset classes the portfolio consists of are: US, Developed Markets, and Emerging Markets Stocks. Investment grade and High Yield bonds.
    • The three types of risks hedged in my portfolio are: Market Risk, Currency Risk, and Interest Rate Risk.
  • A New ETF That Is Like The VIX For High Yield Bonds
    Tue, Aug. 12 WYDE 53 Comments

    Summary

    • A recent ETF launch by ProShares gives investors the option to hedge a high yield bond position using Credit Default Swaps.
    • WYDE is unlike inverse bond ETFs because it does not have the problem of compounding daily, and WYDE is expected to pay a quarterly dividend as well.
    • Since WYDE was just launched last week, investors should wait and see how the ETF trades and if it gains traction.
  • ADT Corp.: A Potential Short Squeeze Play
    Tue, Jul. 29 ADT 9 Comments

    Summary

    • I screened for companies with a large short-interest, dividend growth and share repurchases, and found that ADT was the only company which passed my criteria.
    • I took a deeper look at the financials, buybacks, dividend, short interest, and technical picture for ADT to get a more complete picture.
    • ADT is reporting earnings on Wednesday, and with 19.16% of its float short, there is potential for a large short squeeze.
  • Constructing A Simple Defensive Portfolio
    Tue, Jul. 29 DEF, BLV, UUP 4 Comments

    Summary

    • I searched for ETFs that have shown to have low volatility in the short-term, and the long-term.
    • I then looked at how 14 select ETFs from different areas of focus performed during the last four years where a correction occurred.
    • I found that based on historical corrections the three areas of focus that performed the best were: Defensive Equities, Long-Term Bonds, and the U.S. Dollar.
  • 3 Small-Cap Dividend Growth Stocks Hedge Funds Love
    Tue, Jul. 22 DGRO, GMT, GURX 3 Comments

    Summary

    • I searched for common holdings of a dividend growth ETF, and a hedge fund ETF to see which companies were in both.
    • I found that three companies were in both ETFs, and I looked at the historical dividend growth, performance, and valuation of each.
    • Out of the 3 companies I found, only GMT currently has an attractive valuation.
  • Potential Targets For Activist Investors
    Thu, Jul. 17 IEP 38 Comments

    Summary

    • I use a multi-step process to search for companies that meet certain fundamental criteria, and have corporate governance issues.
    • I focused on those companies specifically that had a "red-flag" for takeover defenses.
    • After my running though my multi-step process, I found that four companies could be potential activist, or takeover targets.
  • Projecting Bond Total Returns For Rising Rates
    Tue, Jul. 15 HYLD, SJNK, HYS 17 Comments

    Summary

    • I attempt to estimate the total returns that bond ETFs will have when interest rates start rising.
    • I created a simple formula that anyone can use to estimate how much a bond ETF or mutual fund could rise/fall.
    • Based on my findings, areas worth looking at are Short-Term high yield corporate bonds, and ultra short bond ETFs are worth looking at.
  • NQ Mobile Trading Playbook
    Tue, Jul. 8 NQ 46 Comments

    Summary

    • With recent news that the audit chairwoman for NQ Mobile resigned I thought it would be a good idea to create a "playbook" of trade ideas for everyone.
    • I construct four trades: Bearish, Bullish, Neutral, and Event Driven.
    • Going forward the audit results will either crush the stock, or shoot it higher because the stock is heavily shorted.
  • Berkshire Value Screen, Only 1 Survivor
    Thu, Jul. 3 BRK.A, HES, BRK.B 22 Comments

    Summary

    • I will be using a multi-step process to search for companies that have value characteristics that could possibly make them attractive to Berkshire Hathaway.
    • I focus on companies that have similar value characteristics to the top holdings of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio.
    • My Search culminated with only one company passing my value screen, and other tests.
  • Potential Acquisition Targets For Berkshire Hathaway
    Wed, Jun. 25 BRK.B, BRK.A 65 Comments

    Summary

    • I will be using a multi-step process to search for a small list of companies that might be the next large acquisition target of Berkshire Hathaway.
    • I focus on companies that have similar characteristics to the top holdings of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio.
    • My final list of 6 stocks includes one stock that Berkshire Hathaway already has a stake it.
  • Best Of Breed Part 5: Industrials
    Tue, Jun. 24 MMM 5 Comments

    Summary

    • I looked at the holdings of the Industrial SPDR to find the "best-of-breed" stock in the sector.
    • I combined fundamentals, corporate governance, and CEO approval to determine the best stock in the sector.
    • The stock I determined that was "best-of-breed" has consistently outperformed its sector ETF, and has been a strong dividend growth stock.
  • Market At New Highs, Go Bear Hunting: Sears Holdings
    Mon, Jun. 23 SHLD 136 Comments

    Summary

    • I use a two-step process of fundamental & various screening criteria along with CEO approval ratings to find companies that could have a bearish future.
    • After running through my two step process the one company I focused on was Sears Holdings.
    • When taking a deeper look at Sears Holdings, the fundamental, and technical outlook I believe paint a bearish future for the stock.
  • Best Of Breed Part 4: Financials And Healthcare
    Fri, Jun. 20 JNJ, USB, XLF 4 Comments

    Summary

    • I look at the holdings of the Financial SPDR and the Health Care SPDR to find the "best-of-breed" stock in each sector.
    • I combined fundamentals, corporate governance, and CEO approval to determine the best stock in each sector.
    • The two stocks I determined were "best-of-breed" have significantly outperformed their respective sectors, and one is a Dividend Aristocrat.
  • Best Of Breed Part 3: Energy And Materials
    Wed, Jun. 11 MON, XLE, XLB Comment!

    Summary

    • I look at the holdings of the Energy SPDR and the Materials SPDR to find the "best-of-breed" stock in each sector.
    • I combined fundamentals, corporate governance, and CEO approval to determine the best stock in each sector.
    • The two stocks I determined were "best-of-breed" have significantly outperformed their respective sectors, and have both shown strong dividend growth.
  • Best Of Breed Part 2: Staples And Discretionary
    Fri, Jun. 6 TWX, KO, XLP Comment!

    Summary

    • I look at the holdings of the Consumer Staples SPDR and the Consumer Discretionary SPDR to find the "best-of-breed" stock in each sector.
    • I combined fundamentals, corporate governance, and CEO approval to determine the best stock in each sector.
    • The two stocks I determined were "best-of-breed" have Under performed their respective sectors, however they have shown strong dividend growth.
  • Best Of Breed Part 1: Technology And Utilities
    Tue, Jun. 3 MSFT, PEG, XLU 5 Comments

    Summary

    • I look at the holdings of the Technology SPDR and the Utilities SPDR to find the "best-of-breed" stock in each sector.
    • I combined fundamentals, corporate governance, and CEO approval to determine the best stock in each sector.
    • The two stocks I determined were "best-of-breed" have outperformed their respective sectors and have shown strong dividend growth.
  • A New Way To Value Stocks: Cycle DCF
    Tue, May. 20 DIA 7 Comments

    Summary

    • I created a modified DCF called the Cycle DCF to account for variable growth for different business cycles.
    • By accounting for variable growth during business cycles I believe the Cycle DCF more accurately estimates the fair value for a company.
    • In this article I use Apple as my example to show the difference in value between my Cycle DCF and a regular DCF.
  • Strategic Environmental & Energy Resources: A High Growth Waste Management Company With Long-Term Upside
    Wed, May. 14 SENR 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Strategic Environmental & Energy Resources is an under-followed micro-cap company, which has a group of businesses that are disrupting the waste management industry.
    • Strategic Environmental & Energy Resources is on the verge of profitability with the launch of new waste destruction systems from its Paragon Waste Solutions subsidiary.
    • Based on my estimates, Strategic Environmental & Energy Resources could see potential upside of 43% to 117% by 2016.
  • Bubble Watching In The S&P 500 Using Sector SPDR ETFs
    Wed, Apr. 30 SPY 12 Comments

    Summary

    • I examine the Sector SPDR ETFs to gain insight into past market bubbles.
    • Based on my data, past bubbles are easy to spot.
    • Based on historical weightings data, there may be a bubble in Biotechnology.
  • Colgate-Palmolive: My Definition Of A Quality Stock
    Sun, Apr. 27 CL 32 Comments

    Summary

    • I use seven factors I believe make up a quality stock to screen for stocks that posses all those factors.
    • To screen for stocks, I looked for common holdings of select ETFs, along with other selected data.
    • Colgate-Palmolive was the only company that met all seven of my criteria for being a quality stock.
  • The One Growth Stock To Own In A Declining Market
    Thu, Apr. 24 QCOM 8 Comments

    Summary

    • I chose to search for growth stocks rather than defensive stocks that are usually focused on during market declines.
    • Combining the holdings of multiple ETFs to find common holdings is a simple way to screen for stocks.
    • I focused on three factors in my search: Growth, Capital Strength, and Dividend Growth.
  • My CNBC ETF Portfolio One-Year Review
    Thu, Apr. 17 GLDI, VXF, SPY 13 Comments

    Summary

    • I detail the performance of my ETF portfolio I created in response to a CNBC ETF portfolio.
    • Based on the performance, I decided to make some minor changes to my ETF portfolio.
    • I also look at the changes made to the CNBC portfolio over the last year.
  • 3 Mispriced Dividend Growth Stocks
    Tue, Apr. 15 MMS, PII, VFC 6 Comments

    Summary

    • After the recent market sell-of, I screened for a list of companies with strong fundamentals & dividend growth to make a "shopping list."
    • I looked for those companies which were trading at a discount to their historical dividend yield.
    • I also looked at the fair value of the companies I found to see which were trading at a discount to fair value.