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Brad Kenagy

 
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  • My 2015 Value Stock Picks [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. MUR was in last years selections, not this years.
    Jan 1, 2015. 10:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2015 Value Stock Picks [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. I'm just trying to figure out your statement of how high cost oil projects that HAVE NOT been built will lead to a major shortage in oil? If they are not even constructed yet, then they have no effect on current supply or supply in the near team because of the time it takes to construct new projects. I have to seriously disagree with you that oil prices will get to a new all-time high next year.
    Dec 31, 2014. 03:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2015 Value Stock Picks [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. For almost all of my articles I write I try to make it so anyone could repeat my process, or adjust it to fit their needs. There are a few exceptions were I don't give away my "secret sauce".
    Dec 31, 2014. 02:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2015 Value Stock Picks [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. I have to disagree with you on a couple points, first I don't believe M and FL are too risky right now because of the drop in oil, consumers will have more disposable income. I also have to disagree that oil will rebound significantly in 2015. With production in the US still increasing, and when combined with a strong dollar, that will most likely keep getting stronger, Oil I believe in 2015 will have a tough time. If you are looking for oil stocks to own, I would look at CVX, or NOV.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 31, 2014. 02:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2015 Value Stock Picks [View article]
    Thank you for the comment, and adding information to the discussion. Also thank you for posting about Thatswacc.com, I have never heard of that site before, and I will see if it is a resource I could use in the future.
    Dec 31, 2014. 02:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2015 Value Stock Picks [View article]
    Thank you Tony for the information. Thank you for pointing out the Gurufocus DCF calculator, I had never noticed it. What makes it different than the calculator I used was that you are able to select the years of terminal growth, where as the one I use you cannot, which inflates the fair value estimates. I will look at the Gurufocus DCF calculator in more detail and see if I will switch are start using that one. I agree with many of your assessments, and your EY formula I will do some research on.

    Thank you for adding to the discussion.
    Dec 31, 2014. 01:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2015 Value Stock Picks [View article]
    Thank you for the comment, as I wrote in a comment above: "I'm not going to try and hide last year was a failure for my MUR, and TDW picks. Through that failure, I adjusted my process to hopefully eliminate poor picks in the future by adding additional fundamental criteria, and using a risk-adjusted discount rate so riskier stocks are discounted more."
    Dec 31, 2014. 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2015 Value Stock Picks [View article]
    Thank you for the comments and information about the complexities of insurance companies that you added to the discussion. I agree with your assessment on Allstate, my dividend chart clearly shows the impact of the capital losses from the financial crisis.
    Dec 31, 2014. 01:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2015 Value Stock Picks [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. Long-term I'm bullish on certain areas of the tech sector, for instance Cyber Security (HACK), cloud computing (SKYY), and software (IGV).

    As for FLEX, doing a DCF analysis as I did with the other picks In my article I get a 5 year fair value of $22.43. With FLEX using free cash flow to repurchasing large amounts of stock over the last 5 years, and EBITDA at the highest level in the last 10 years, I believe FLEX will continue repurchasing shares which should support the stock price.
    Dec 31, 2014. 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2015 Growth Stock Picks [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. I like your picks as well except newspapers. I agree the politicians/new regulations are the biggest threat to biotechs. Because of the costs of some drugs like GILD has, companies like Express Scripts or governments will start choosing what is best based on price, and not what is necessarily the superior product.

    Good luck in the new year.
    Dec 31, 2014. 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2015 Value Stock Picks [View article]
    Thank you for the comment, 1 year does not make a trend.
    Dec 31, 2014. 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2015 Value Stock Picks [View article]
    Thank you all for the constructive criticism. I'm not going to try and hide last year was a failure for my MUR, and TDW picks. Through that failure, I adjusted my process to hopefully eliminate poor picks in the future by adding additional fundamental criteria, and using a risk-adjusted discount rate so riskier stocks are discounted more. Looking at fundamental charts on Zacks and including just having an ROE >10% my picks last year would have been:

    http://bit.ly/1zwAHUQ

    Murphy Oil: -21.05%
    HCC Insurance: +17.52%
    United Fire Group: -1.09%

    Average: -1.54%

    A decline of 1.54% vs a decline of 20% is a significant improvement in results simply by adding ROE to the equation, and not including past EPS growth which I also added. Hopefully through my failure last year, and my adjustments I made 2015 will be better.
    Dec 31, 2014. 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2015 Value Stock Picks [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. Given the current state of the oil market, and given that the dollar is most likely to continue to strengthen next year, I would more like to be in MLPs [MLP ETF is my largest Roth IRA Holding] or large cap energy stocks like CVX and NOV from my stress tested energy stock article.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I posted this above about to address the diversification issue:

    "Someone looking at my article could use my final lists for each market cap segment as a starting points and go from there and for example could select: Macy's, American Financial Group, and Neenah Paper, or some other combination. Another option would be to buy puts on the SPDR S&P Insurance ETF (KIE) to hedge insurance exposure."

    I hope that with my new added criteria that this years picks will perform better than last years.

    Good luck to you in the new year as well.
    Dec 31, 2014. 12:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2015 Value Stock Picks [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. That is a potential option, but I don't see oil prices or drilling activity picking up anytime soon.
    Dec 31, 2014. 11:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2015 Value Stock Picks [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. I agree that RPV is a quality ETF, and its track record speaks for itself, and is the reason why I chose to use it as the starting point for my search for value stocks.
    Dec 31, 2014. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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