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Brad Kenagy

 
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  • United Rentals: Poised For Long-Term Growth [View article]
    Yeah URI blew away numbers just like they have done in the past.
    Oct 17, 2014. 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Short Candidates: Molycorp And McDermott [View article]
    I dont believe I ever said a BK was around the corner, as I never gave a time frame. I also stated that "With the preferred stock, and senior notes offering MDR has a chance to shore up its business." Therefore, BK is a real possibility IF their turnaround efforts dont work and oil prices remain low.

    Also, I don't know about you, but I dont characterize an 8% interest rate as low.
    Oct 15, 2014. 08:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Short Candidates: Molycorp And McDermott [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. About the backlog that MDR has, it honestly does not matter how big the backlog is if they are losing money on those backlog Sales. For 2013 and the TTM MDR has had Cost of goods sold that have exceeded revenues. So, even before the company pays out SG&A Expenses, and other expenses MDR is losing money because they can't sell their products and services for more than what they cost to make.
    Oct 15, 2014. 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Short Candidates: Molycorp And McDermott [View article]
    I agree with you on the reason why GTAT collapsed, However, if GTAT was a profitable company, had positive margins, better management efficiency GTAT would have been able to absorb the hit from the AAPL debt call. Because GTAT has none of those characteristics, looking for companies with similar fundamentals, gives a list of companies who IF something adverse were to happen with a customer/project that they would be at risk of BK.

    For example, MCP has everything riding on its Mountain Pass rare earth mine. If that project does not pan out, then MCP will go most likely go into BK I believe.
    Oct 15, 2014. 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Short Candidates: Molycorp And McDermott [View article]
    Just in Case anyone was wondering, since my article posted at Noon on October 8th [Less Than 1 week]

    MCP: Down 10.76%
    MDR: Down 15.69%

    Disclosure: I have no positions in either, and have not had a position.
    Oct 14, 2014. 09:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Endeavour Keeps Disappointing, But The Upside Is Significant [View article]
    SA News Feed: Endeavour files for bankruptcy.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Oct 12, 2014. 11:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Free Cash Flow Champions Part 2: Priceline And F5 Networks [View article]
    For earnings estimates, here is a great link to look at from estimize.

    http://bit.ly/1C2IWJR

    On the left if you leave only: Actual & Wall St. Estimates checked you can see that PCLN has beat Wall St. estimates each of the last 8 quarters.
    Oct 10, 2014. 05:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Amazon opening first physical store [View news story]
    I could see a future where AMZN buys select high traffic retail locations of SHLD,JCP, etc and use the real estate as a "mini-warehouse".
    Oct 9, 2014. 08:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Short Candidates: Molycorp And McDermott [View article]
    SE just pointed out in his recent never ending MCP series that S&P may upgrade MCP any week.
    Oct 9, 2014. 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing This Yo-Yo Market [View article]
    Great article, and great advice. I agree having cash for a rainy day to pick up quality names, and having exposure to large cap quality balance sheet names like AAPL, and GILD is good as well because those names are the last stocks investors will sell during a market panic. I also love the term "yo-yo market" I think that one will stick.
    Oct 9, 2014. 11:34 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Free Cash Flow Champions Part 2: Priceline And F5 Networks [View article]
    @Bailout2009, Thank you for the comments. My fair value estimate of $2350 was my 5 year target price. As far as the short-term looking at the chart if PCLN does break $1100 the next level of support that I see is at around $1000. The lowest I could See PCLN going on a major market selloff is down to around $775. If it breaches $1100, and $1000. If PCLN holds $1100 then In the short-term I think PCLN could return to around $1210 which is where shares had a "mini" gap down on September 5th.
    Oct 9, 2014. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Short Candidates: Molycorp And McDermott [View article]
    @Arbalet Thank you for adding information to the discussion. I agree that MDR has potential, but there are headwinds. Also, where did you find the CDS data for MDR?
    Oct 9, 2014. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Short Candidates: Molycorp And McDermott [View article]
    @REEality Thank you for the comment. By having the five criteria ALONG with the market cap Criteria I included I believe gives a good indication of potential distress. I ran the same screen BUT without the market cap Criteria and there was only 1 name that had a market cap of >$2 billion and that was Isis Pharma. which is trading at $38.20/share. Besides that every other name on the list is currently trading at less than $5/share. You usually dont trade below $5/share for a good reason. Also, many mutual funds, etc, can't own stocks that are priced at <$5 so since MCP & MDR that potential takes some investors out of the market.
    Oct 9, 2014. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Short Candidates: Molycorp And McDermott [View article]
    Thank you for your opinion as well, and repeating the points in the endless series of articles from the "Shock Exchange."
    Oct 8, 2014. 11:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Short Candidates: Molycorp And McDermott [View article]
    @TagNewToCCs Thank you for the comment. Sometimes betting on those stocks that have fallen the farthest and are unloved is a good strategy, only time will tell. I wish you the best with your 2 year bet, 170,000 shares is a serious amount.
    Oct 8, 2014. 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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