Seeking Alpha

Brad Kenagy

View as an RSS Feed
View Brad Kenagy's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • A New Permanent Portfolio For The 21st Century [View article]
    Thank you for the comments Derek, everyone always talks about the "great rotation" from bond funds to stocks, but I think the real Great Rotation in the next decade will be from Mutual Funds, to ETFs.
    Feb 9 06:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Permanent Portfolio For The 21st Century [View article]
    Thank you for your comment. That is an interesting idea. I went back and replaced my 20% allocation to SPLV, and 20% allocation to EEMV, with a 40% allocation to the iShares MSCI All Country World Minimum Volatility Index ETF (ACWV), and compared it to PERM since February 8th 2012 like I did in my article.

    -My Portfolio with SPLV, and EEMV: Total Return 8.80% with 6.20% volatility, so a 1.42% return/risk.
    -My Portfolio with 40% allocation to ACWV: Total Return:8.30% with 5.50% volatility so a 1.51% return/risk.

    So your suggestion does help the portfolio achieve a better risk adjusted return! Congrats, and thank you for the awesome suggestion.
    Feb 9 12:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Permanent Portfolio For The 21st Century [View article]
    I appreciate your comments. This is the last post I will write on the subject of the GLD issue. If you have any other comments about my portfolio strategy I will address those, and I will not address any other GLD questions.

    My parting gift:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Feb 7 04:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Permanent Portfolio For The 21st Century [View article]
    I actually dug deeper and found that ETFreplay lets you backtest a portfolio of ETFs against a select list of mutual funds, and PRPFX is included, so here are the results:

    From the April 2nd 2012 SPY High to the June 4th 2012 SPY low

    SPY Total Return: -9.70% with 14.50% volatility
    PRPFX Total Return: -5.80% with 7.70% volatilty
    PERM Total Return: -0.60% with 6.60% volatility
    Harry Browne Total Return: +.60% with 5.70% volatility
    My Portfolio Total Return: -3.30% with 6.50% volatility

    From the Sep 14th 2012 SPY High to the Nov 15th 2012 SPY low

    SPY Total Return: -7.30% with 11.50% volatility
    PRPFX Total Return: -3.70% with 6.8% volatility
    PERM Total Return: -0.50% with 6.20% volatility
    Harry Browne Total Return: -0.70% with 4.1% volatility
    My Portfolio Total Return: -1.20% with 5.3% volatility

    As the results of these short term pull backs show my portfolio fared well, but wasn't the top portfolio. But as I stated in my article having more diversification increased the volatility and risk profile, as well as having no US treasury bonds.

    Hope that helps.
    Feb 7 03:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Permanent Portfolio For The 21st Century [View article]
    Where is the proof that it wasn't on the list? Show me the picture or something or article by a reputable source that confirms that the bar wasn't on the list? Or are you just speculating again. Please provide links to your sources of your speculation.

    All I ask from you is that you show me some evidence rather than just comments.

    Also, I am still waiting for an apology about your "wet behind the ear" comment.
    Feb 7 03:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Permanent Portfolio For The 21st Century [View article]
    Tampat, I looked into what you asked and it is not possible for part of what you asked. EEMV, MINT etc dont have indexes that go back that far. What I can tell you from looking at bloomberg and I found the index that PERM tracks has been around alot longer than the ETF.

    Here are the results for the 5 year returns using Bloomberg Charts:

    SPY: +11.98% return
    PRPFX: +35.71% return
    PERM Index, Bloomberg Symbol PERM:IND 55.41% return.
    Feb 7 03:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Permanent Portfolio For The 21st Century [View article]
    Where are your Facts??, NOT speculation about the GLD not having enough gold? Show me a link, anything that has concrete evidence to support your claim. I supported my claim with actual evidence, Daily numbered bar list, video showing the massive amount of gold.

    Also, again, I do not appreciate your tone, and putting me down. Just because you are older than me, or have been investing longer than I have, doesn't mean you are smarter than I am, or that your logic is automatically correct.

    Also, I would like an apology for your "wet behind the ear" comment.

    Thank you
    Feb 7 01:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Permanent Portfolio For The 21st Century [View article]
    What do you think about the two links from my last post? The first about each numbered bar held by the GLD, and the second is a video showing all the gold? How can you dismiss that?

    Also, I don't appreciate your comment about the "wet behind the ears"
    Feb 7 01:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Permanent Portfolio For The 21st Century [View article]
    Thank you for your comment.

    I think his portfolio is more about capital preservation, than income or growth. If you are close to retirement or have an extremely conservative investment philosophy, his portfolio would work. I think any permanent portfolio is meant to be held for long periods of time 5+ years, so me personally I would rather have a portfolio that generates more income, and is exposed to more growth, at the expense of slightly higher volatility.
    Feb 7 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Trading Survivor Contest [View instapost]
    Case of the tortoise and the hare, RIMM jumped out to the huge lead but may end up losing the race.
    Jan 31 11:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Trading Survivor Contest [View instapost]
    Here is a link to a very compelling article on shorting Amazon I thought you would be interested in.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 29 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The money management business inspires a lively exchange at the Barron's Roundtable, with Brian Rogers' liking of Legg Mason (LM) as either a value or takeover play getting the thumbs up from Mario Gabelli, but a razzing from Bill Gross who says the stock-picking industry is in secular decline thanks to ETFs. Gabelli to Gross: "If you want to preach in favor of mindless investing, we don't have to stand by." [View news story]
    Here is a list of mutual fund deficiencies:

    -Mutual funds have Higher Fees than ETFs!
    -Mutual have more Fees like 12b-1!
    -Mutual Funds have Load Fees, ETFs do not!
    -Mutual Funds have Minimum Investment amounts!
    -If a mutual fund gets to popular, it can close to new investors!
    -80% of Mutual Funds under perform benchmark!
    -Poor tax efficiency!
    -Higher Turnover!

    After all those facts I don't understand why anyone would own a mutual fund, when you can own ETFs especially through Fidelity or TD Ameritrade with commission Free ETFs. People will eventually see that ETFs are so much better in so many different ways, and when that happens I wouldn't want to be those peoples brokers who have been milking fees from them for years.

    Everyone always talks about the great rotation that they expect to occur where bond fund investors will rotate into stock funds, I think the REAL Great rotation is from Mutual Funds to ETFs.

    Here is a link to a great article by a fellow SA author:

    Great line from his article: "Mutual funds have the unique ability to charge investors more money for NO performance."

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 27 12:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Predicting Warren Buffett's Next New Holding [View article]
    Not that big of Stretch for DE, Berkshire initiated a new poistion for the quarter ended 9/30/2012 in Deere.

    Here is the link to his berkshires portfolio:

    http://bit.ly/144ZGSv
    Jan 25 09:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Debt - Down The Ponzi Scheme Rabbit Hole? [View article]
    I totally agree with you on all your points. Also, since your title mentioned ponzi scheme, I thought I would bring this to your attention, it has got virtually no media coverage. First government steal out of the Social Security cookie jar, now out of the federal employee pension fund. Where will Obama find more money...... more higher taxes to pay back past money borrowed "stolen" like a ponzi scheme. Like all ponzi schemes, it will take a market shock like in 2008-2009 where Madoff couldn't keep up with the redemption's for his fund. That market shock for the government debt will be I suspect, a failure to pass the debt ceiling extension, or even if a deal is passed a credit downgrade of one notch or multiple notches. Some possible ideas to invest in:

    Precious Metals: (GLD), (IAU)
    Emerging Market Local Debt: (ELD) (EMLC)
    Short duration corporate bonds: (SJNK), (VCSH)
    Low volatility stocks (SPLV) (EEMV)

    "Geithner says gov't will borrow from federal employee pension fund to avoid passing debt limit."


    Yahoo Finance article link below:

    http://yhoo.it/W84D6O
    Jan 17 12:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Vs. Growth, Part II [View article]
    Here's an actual idea you should try:

    Take the holdings of the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF (IWF), and take the 9 stocks with the highest earnings growth rate. Then repeat the same process for the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF (IWD), and take the 9 stocks with the highest dividends.
    Do the same thing like you did in your portfolio, for each by only selecting 1 company per sector for each portfolio.

    If you want, tomorrow I could do this process, and give you the resulting portfolios?

    Brad
    Jan 15 10:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,315 Comments
540 Likes