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Brad Kenagy  

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  • My 2015 Value Stock Picks [View article]
    Thank you for the comment, 1 year does not make a trend.
    Dec 31, 2014. 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2015 Value Stock Picks [View article]
    Thank you all for the constructive criticism. I'm not going to try and hide last year was a failure for my MUR, and TDW picks. Through that failure, I adjusted my process to hopefully eliminate poor picks in the future by adding additional fundamental criteria, and using a risk-adjusted discount rate so riskier stocks are discounted more. Looking at fundamental charts on Zacks and including just having an ROE >10% my picks last year would have been:

    http://bit.ly/1zwAHUQ

    Murphy Oil: -21.05%
    HCC Insurance: +17.52%
    United Fire Group: -1.09%

    Average: -1.54%

    A decline of 1.54% vs a decline of 20% is a significant improvement in results simply by adding ROE to the equation, and not including past EPS growth which I also added. Hopefully through my failure last year, and my adjustments I made 2015 will be better.
    Dec 31, 2014. 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2015 Value Stock Picks [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. Given the current state of the oil market, and given that the dollar is most likely to continue to strengthen next year, I would more like to be in MLPs [MLP ETF is my largest Roth IRA Holding] or large cap energy stocks like CVX and NOV from my stress tested energy stock article.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I posted this above about to address the diversification issue:

    "Someone looking at my article could use my final lists for each market cap segment as a starting points and go from there and for example could select: Macy's, American Financial Group, and Neenah Paper, or some other combination. Another option would be to buy puts on the SPDR S&P Insurance ETF (KIE) to hedge insurance exposure."

    I hope that with my new added criteria that this years picks will perform better than last years.

    Good luck to you in the new year as well.
    Dec 31, 2014. 12:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2015 Value Stock Picks [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. That is a potential option, but I don't see oil prices or drilling activity picking up anytime soon.
    Dec 31, 2014. 11:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2015 Value Stock Picks [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. I agree that RPV is a quality ETF, and its track record speaks for itself, and is the reason why I chose to use it as the starting point for my search for value stocks.
    Dec 31, 2014. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2015 Value Stock Picks [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. I will keep your suggestion in mind for using pessimistic inputs. Also, I had the growth rate for the next 5 years, if I had changed that input to growth only for 1 year, and leveling off to 1% after that, my "1-year" price target would have been $68.64.

    I also posted in a comment above, that since all my picks are in the insurance sector someone could buy puts on the SPDR S&P Insurance ETF (KIE) to hedge insurance exposure.
    Dec 31, 2014. 11:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2015 Value Stock Picks [View article]
    Thank you for your comment, I was surprised to see all insurance companies as the most undervalued in each market cap segment. Someone looking at my article could use my final lists for each market cap segment as a starting points and go from there and for example could select: Macy's, American Financial Group, and Neenah Paper, or some other combination. Another option would be to buy puts on the SPDR S&P Insurance ETF (KIE) to hedge insurance exposure.
    Dec 31, 2014. 11:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2014 Growth Stock Picks [View article]
    Here is a link to my 2014 value stock review and 2015 value stock picks

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 31, 2014. 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2015 Growth Stock Picks [View article]
    Here is a link to my 2014 value stock review and 2015 value stock picks.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 31, 2014. 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2014 Value Stock Picks [View article]
    Here is a link to my 2014 review and 2015 picks.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 31, 2014. 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2015 Growth Stock Picks [View article]
    @sfpdf Thank you for the comment, I am glad you found my article helpful. In all my articles on growth stocks, I like to try to include some form of GARP, and not Growth at any price, except for my one article on Momentum stocks.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I did not calculate the returns of MNK, after the QCOR merger. I assumed that if myself or someone would have been holding QCOR they would have sold prior to acquisition being final. I looked and MNK has returned 38.88% since Aug 15th, which was the first day of trading for the combined company, therefore, my average of AZO, NSR, and MNK/QCOR would be even higher.

    Don't worry about not pulling the trigger, I have had plenty of those moments that I say to myself "why did I not pull the trigger" just have to try to find the next one.

    Brad
    Dec 30, 2014. 08:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2015 Growth Stock Picks [View article]
    Thank you for the comment, Happy new year!
    Dec 30, 2014. 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2015 Growth Stock Picks [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. If I was looking for clicks I should have made an article title like the top article right now on the front page of SA "grandma got run over by a dividend portfolio" lol. Whoever wrote it did good because how can you not click on that to investigate such an odd title lol.
    Dec 30, 2014. 10:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My New Years Resolution: Balance My Risky Portfolio [View article]
    I agree with @HackFAB that a ROTH IRA is a great option. For me personally I am also a "young investor" I have a Roth where I buy quality investments, and I have a plain investment account for my "risky" investment choices.

    If you are looking for someplace to start here are a couple ideas:

    Warren Buffett Holdings:

    http://bit.ly/144ZGSv

    OR From my article on finding the best quality stocks.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Good luck in your investing.

    Brad
    Dec 29, 2014. 09:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2014 Growth Stock Picks [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. I was pleased with my Autozone, and QuestCor picks, but not with my Neustar Pick. Because of the poor performance of Neustar last year, I added criteria to help eliminate companies like NSR, and I added a "risks" section.
    Dec 29, 2014. 05:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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