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Brad Kenagy

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  • Seeking Alpha Trading Survivor Contest [View instapost]
    Reminder!! Everyone please submit your picks for the second month of the contest.

    Here is the leaderboard so far:

    realornot RIMM 31.22%
    dd2020dd XIV 19.88%
    E.W. Barnaba XIV 19.88%
    mktlab68 VHC 19.25%
    Chasing the Vig HLF 18.26%
    izzygemini ZNGA 17.36%
    Matt Schilling DNDN 15.72%
    mrcoleslaw SNTS 14.63%
    David Klein WRLS 14.49%
    Bill Mauer ISRG 14.10%
    allupside EZPW 12.49%
    Josh Krause SODA 10.28%
    soundstock KMP 9.97%
    Welt FUN 9.66%
    Ypa Finance NVR 9.52%
    Tom Guttenberger XIN 4.11%
    Brad Kenagy BGCP 3.67%
    Parabana Miterjee BBBY 3.61%
    Ghosts Of Kariela AIG 2.78%
    Joe Kelly GTAT 1.26%
    Ocean Man WTW 0.71%
    Modernist GLRE 0.00%
    Zach Tripp GLW -6.03%
    Jim Van Naseum FSLR -7.48%
    Seth Walters PIR -7.66%
    Peter Larson AMZN -7.67%
    Brian L.Wilson PCRX -11.66%
    Jan 28 07:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The money management business inspires a lively exchange at the Barron's Roundtable, with Brian Rogers' liking of Legg Mason (LM) as either a value or takeover play getting the thumbs up from Mario Gabelli, but a razzing from Bill Gross who says the stock-picking industry is in secular decline thanks to ETFs. Gabelli to Gross: "If you want to preach in favor of mindless investing, we don't have to stand by." [View news story]
    A great example Gabelli Small Cap Growth AAA (GABSX) compared to the Vanguard Small Cap Growth ETF (VBK) since VBK inception on 1/30/2004.

    Gabelli Fund: +49.21%
    Vanguard ETF: +94.80%

    So score one for the ETF.

    Gabelli Fund expense Ratio: 1.42% + .25% 12b-1= 1.67%
    Vanguard ETF expense Ratio: 0.10%

    Score another one for the ETF.

    So for an extra 1.57% in fees you can Underperform an ETF targeting the same group of stocks [ small caps] by 45.49%.
    Jan 27 01:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Simple Retirement Portfolio Anyone Can Build (Equal Sector Weights): Year-End Update [View article]
    Why not just do the following portfolio to cut your trading costs:

    ALPS Equal Sector Weight ETF (EQL) Yield: 3.19%
    -The index is comprised in equal proportions of the nine Select Sector SPDR Indexes.

    iShares Gold Trust ETF (IAU)
    PowerShares Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt Portfolio ETF (PCY)

    SPDR Wells Fargo Preferred Stock ETF (PSK)


    EQL: 25%
    IAU: 25%
    PCY: 25%
    PSK: 25%

    Compared to the S&P 500 (SPY), since Sep 17th 2009 which is as far back as data goes for all 4 funds:

    Portfolio Total Return: 46%
    Portfolio Volatility: 8.9%

    SPY Total Return: 40.5%
    SPY Volatility: 18.1%

    So overall nice idea for equal weighting sectors, and mixing in Gold, Preferred stocks, and Emerging Market debt, but you could cut your transaction costs alot by owning EQL instead of owning around 15+ stocks, and still have a portfolio that has a Higher return than the SPY, and with almost half as much volatility.
    Dec 28 10:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Picking Shares Of Intel Out Of The 'Old Tech' Waste Basket [View article]

    Thank you for your comment. Well I have proven Cramer wrong earlier this year, he said on his "Six in 60" segment when he got to the last company, Barrick Gold (ABX) he said, "Just can't stand these gold miners, they are awful. You want to own gold, own the GLD."

    So I wrote an article about looking for quality gold miners and developed a screen to find them to challenge Jim Cramer on his comment.

    The results since the article was written on Jan 25th 2012:

    (RGLD) : +23.82%
    (AUY) : +23.17%
    (FNV) : +33.54%

    (GLD) : +3.19%
    (GDX) : -7.29%

    So My picks greatly outperformed the GLD by a wide margin, as well as the GDX which is the ETF for Gold Miners. Also, the results dont account for dividends, just price return, so the outperformance is even greater because the GLD does not pay dividends.

    Link to my Gold Miner Article:
    Nov 29 05:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Picking Shares Of Intel Out Of The 'Old Tech' Waste Basket [View article]
    Thank you for your comment. Intel may be a falling knife, but it has a great balance sheet, pays a great well covered dividend [39% payout ratio], that is covered by increasing cash flows, and plenty of earnings.
    Nov 29 04:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Potential Giant Killer That Is Advanced Cell Technology [View article]
    Well they talked about two options of reverse split 20-1 or 80-1, at 20-1 new price based on current price of $0.073 would be $1.46 and at 80-1 price would be $5.84, so if they want to potentially be picked up by mutual funds and hedge funds they usually have a $5/share minimum price, so being a current shareholder I would vote for the 80-1 split so our shares could be bought by mutual funds and hedge funds.

    To answer the question about buying pre/post reverse split I would buy before the split and just make sure your share is a multiple of 80, so you dont end up with any fractional shares, which is what I did.

    DISCLOSURE: LONG (ACTC.OB) and may add to position on a pullback.
    Oct 8 11:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Private Equity That's Publicly Traded [View article]
    Very good article, I recently was searching for a BDC to add to my IRA for yield, and searched a did some research on all the companies above in your article as well as (TCAP) which is what I ended up choosing.

    Below are Total Returns from DRIP return calculator from feb 22 2007 when TCAP came public.

    BX: -41.02%
    ACAS: -59.62%
    ARCC: +118.07%
    FIG: -86.69%
    MCGC: -55.72%
    AINV: -17.57%
    TCAP: +129.17%

    When I compared TCAP and ARCC i used FinViz for monthly volatility and found (Return/Volatility):

    Because the returns were pretty close to each other i looked at FinViz category for EPS growth this past year and the results:

    TCAP: 45.93% EPS growth this past year.
    ARCC: -60.17% EPS growth this past year.

    So i decided to choose TCAP.

    Disclosure: Long TCAP
    Apr 8 11:42 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2014 Growth Stock Picks [View article]
    Only a portion of the profit are passed off to employees, the majority sticks with the company.
    Dec 21 07:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Yield Spreads Hit A 6-Year Low [View article]
    I trust market data like above rather than Government reported data for growth & CPI which can be inaccurate or changed. For example starting in the third quarter of this year the government changed how it calculated GDP.
    Dec 10 08:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Ways To Expose Yourself To Today's Market [View article]
    I have been thinking about a combo trade for my alternative portion of my portfolio, with XIV having a 85% correlation to the SPY. My idea is an 85% allocation to XIV or SVXY, and a 15% allocation to the Direxion Daily 30-Year Treasury Bull 3x Shares ETF (TMF) or the ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury ETF (UBT) to smooth out returns during downturns.
    Dec 2 08:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big U.S. GDP Beat: Hype Versus Reality [View article]
    I believe GDP beat expectations because the government changed the way they calculated GDP starting in Q3 of this year. Here is a link to another SA author who covered this.
    Nov 10 10:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Simple Screen To Find Lesser Known Momentum Stocks [View article]
    No thanks, I want no part of insider information.
    Nov 5 08:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For 0% Bond Allocation [View article]
    Good article, I have a suggestion to still have a bond allocation in a portfolio and that is to own convertible bonds or convertible bond ETFs like the SPDR Barclays Capital Convertible Bond ETF (CWB). For example this year from May 2nd [Low in rates] to september 5th [high in rates] here is the data I found:

    CWB Return: 5.1%
    AGG Return: -5.1%
    SPY Return: 4.4%

    CWB had a 25% correlation to AGG, and 83% correlation to SPY.

    CWB provides a better yield, and lower volatility than the SPY but still provides a high correlation to equity performance.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any funds mentioned.
    Nov 4 01:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preferred Shares As A Replacement For Bonds To Increase Returns On One's Nest Egg [View article]

    Very good article,I am also a fan of preferred stocks as well for income, I prefer to spread my risk around, so instead of owning individual preferred stocks I decided to buy the Market Vectors Preferred Securities ex Financials ETF (PFXF) which owns preferred stocks, with no financial preferred, because im not a fan of financials. It does has a large allocation to REIT preferred stocks of 31.5%.
    Oct 8 03:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Creating A Portfolio To Outperform Obamacare [View article]
    Thank you for your comment. I don't like your whining comment, and you do not know my financial situation so please don't make speculations about that. Also, redistribution=socialism, and with the ACA I am being forced to subsidize others. Yes I understand its for the better of humanity, but the price 228% price increase is quite extreme.

    Why can't health insurance be like auto insurance Good Driver=Less cost, Bad Driver=Higher cost. Anytime the government gets involved with something the costs rise, that's a proven fact!
    Sep 29 03:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment