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Brad Kenagy

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  • Stocks And Commodities Signaling A Downturn [View article]
    To answer your question.

    -No I have not bought any options because Options trading is not allowed in my Roth IRA. As for the VIX, no I do not buy anything VIX related for two reasons.

    -Most VIX products are ETNs, and I stay away from ETNs, and second, volatility is a trading vehicle, and I only like picking investment options that I could hold for a long period of time.

    If I was absolutely forced to choose a VIX product, to minimize my risk I would choose either

    iPath S&P 500 Dynamic VIX ETN (XVZ) OR
    UBS ETRACS Daily Long-Short VIX ETN (XVIX)
    Mar 13 05:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 ETFs For Retirement Income For Less Active Investors [View article]
    Very good article, it is very similar to my article I wrote last year.

    A couple thoughts, I assume since I didnt see anything that each ETF is weighted equally? Also you seem to have overlap with FGD, and DTH, which are both international dividend ETFs. So I ran your portfolio up against mine using from March 11 2009 which is the farthest back data goes for LWC.

    -Your Portfolio: +144.9% total return with 18.6% volatility.

    Risk adjusted return: 144.9/18.6= 7.79% return/unit of risk

    -My Portfolio:+119.6% total return with 11.3% volatility.

    Risk adjusted return: 119.6/11.3=10.58% return/unit of risk.

    Yield Comparison [My Portfolio]
    Weight Yield W*Y
    30% 4.78% 1.43400%
    25% 6.65% 1.66250%
    20% 7.88% 1.57600%
    15% 6.22% 0.93300%
    10% 1.43% 0.14300%

    Portfolio Yield 5.75%

    Yield Comparison [Your Portfolio]
    Weight Yield W*Y
    20% 4.95% 0.99000%
    20% 6.55% 1.31000%
    20% 4.10% 0.82000%
    20% 4.60% 0.92000%
    20% 5.99% 1.19800%

    Portfolio Yield 5.24%

    The main difference in our portfolio's is I weighted mine by volatility, so less volatile funds got more weight in the portfolio. Your portfolio is a good start, if it were me i'd swap out FGD, and go with a more US centric dividend ETF like the iShares High Dividend Equity ETF (HDV), or WisdomTree Equity Income ETF (DHS). Just a couple things to think about.
    Mar 13 11:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Crash In The Bond Market [View article]
    I wrote an article last year in May, where I constructed a simple rising rates portfolio for when inflation kicks in. The portfolio has no leveraged inverse treasury funds like TBT.

    My Portfolio I created in my article:

    iShares Floating Rate Note (FLOT)
    PIMCO 1-5 Year US TIPS Index ETF (STPZ)
    PowerShares Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt (PCY)
    ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (TBF)
    iShares High Dividend Equity (HDV)

    At the time of writing the article the rate on the 10-year treasury was 1.70%.

    The results of the portfolio I created since then compared to popular bond funds:

    -My Portfolio: 5.5% Return with 3.0% Volatility OR 1.83% Return /volatility
    -AGG: 1.3% Return with 2.4% Volatility OR 0.54% Return /Volatility
    -LQD: 5.8% Return with 4.1% Volatility OR 1.41% Return/ Volatility
    -TIP: 1.4% Return with 4.3% Volatility OR 0.32% Return/Volatilty
    Mar 10 11:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Stress Tests: Ally Financial is the only bank not meeting the Fed standards.  All of the other 18 holding companies showed a Tier 1 Common Ratio higher than 5% under the central bank's severe loss scenario. [View news story]
    As noted on CNBC today, US Bank stress test DO NOT take into account what would happen to derivatives held by banks. Where as European bank stress tests include derivatives in their stress tests.
    Mar 7 09:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons The S&P 500 Could Fall 20% By The End Of 2013 [View article]
    GHargis Thank you for your comments I agree with you. With the massive amount of QE in the market, this has led to inflation in food and energy prices. There is very little or no economic growth. So what is the name for the condition where there is a lack of growth, and rising inflation? STAGFLATION !!!!
    Feb 21 10:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons The S&P 500 Could Fall 20% By The End Of 2013 [View article]
    Thank you for your comment. I have a chart for you and everyone else to look at that shows the Federal Reserve Balance sheet total. TO answer your question QE was not responsible for the 2008 financial crisis, it was housing, loan underwriting standards, and excessive leverage at financial institutions.The chart clearly shows there was no excessive QE leading up to the financial crisis of 2008.
    Feb 21 05:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Trading Survivor Contest [View instapost]
    Reminder!! Everyone please submit your picks for the second month of the contest.

    Here is the leaderboard so far:

    realornot RIMM 31.22%
    dd2020dd XIV 19.88%
    E.W. Barnaba XIV 19.88%
    mktlab68 VHC 19.25%
    Chasing the Vig HLF 18.26%
    izzygemini ZNGA 17.36%
    Matt Schilling DNDN 15.72%
    mrcoleslaw SNTS 14.63%
    David Klein WRLS 14.49%
    Bill Mauer ISRG 14.10%
    allupside EZPW 12.49%
    Josh Krause SODA 10.28%
    soundstock KMP 9.97%
    Welt FUN 9.66%
    Ypa Finance NVR 9.52%
    Tom Guttenberger XIN 4.11%
    Brad Kenagy BGCP 3.67%
    Parabana Miterjee BBBY 3.61%
    Ghosts Of Kariela AIG 2.78%
    Joe Kelly GTAT 1.26%
    Ocean Man WTW 0.71%
    Modernist GLRE 0.00%
    Zach Tripp GLW -6.03%
    Jim Van Naseum FSLR -7.48%
    Seth Walters PIR -7.66%
    Peter Larson AMZN -7.67%
    Brian L.Wilson PCRX -11.66%
    Jan 28 07:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The money management business inspires a lively exchange at the Barron's Roundtable, with Brian Rogers' liking of Legg Mason (LM) as either a value or takeover play getting the thumbs up from Mario Gabelli, but a razzing from Bill Gross who says the stock-picking industry is in secular decline thanks to ETFs. Gabelli to Gross: "If you want to preach in favor of mindless investing, we don't have to stand by." [View news story]
    A great example Gabelli Small Cap Growth AAA (GABSX) compared to the Vanguard Small Cap Growth ETF (VBK) since VBK inception on 1/30/2004.

    Gabelli Fund: +49.21%
    Vanguard ETF: +94.80%

    So score one for the ETF.

    Gabelli Fund expense Ratio: 1.42% + .25% 12b-1= 1.67%
    Vanguard ETF expense Ratio: 0.10%

    Score another one for the ETF.

    So for an extra 1.57% in fees you can Underperform an ETF targeting the same group of stocks [ small caps] by 45.49%.
    Jan 27 01:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Simple Retirement Portfolio Anyone Can Build (Equal Sector Weights): Year-End Update [View article]
    Why not just do the following portfolio to cut your trading costs:

    ALPS Equal Sector Weight ETF (EQL) Yield: 3.19%
    -The index is comprised in equal proportions of the nine Select Sector SPDR Indexes.

    iShares Gold Trust ETF (IAU)
    PowerShares Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt Portfolio ETF (PCY)

    SPDR Wells Fargo Preferred Stock ETF (PSK)


    EQL: 25%
    IAU: 25%
    PCY: 25%
    PSK: 25%

    Compared to the S&P 500 (SPY), since Sep 17th 2009 which is as far back as data goes for all 4 funds:

    Portfolio Total Return: 46%
    Portfolio Volatility: 8.9%

    SPY Total Return: 40.5%
    SPY Volatility: 18.1%

    So overall nice idea for equal weighting sectors, and mixing in Gold, Preferred stocks, and Emerging Market debt, but you could cut your transaction costs alot by owning EQL instead of owning around 15+ stocks, and still have a portfolio that has a Higher return than the SPY, and with almost half as much volatility.
    Dec 28 10:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Picking Shares Of Intel Out Of The 'Old Tech' Waste Basket [View article]

    Thank you for your comment. Well I have proven Cramer wrong earlier this year, he said on his "Six in 60" segment when he got to the last company, Barrick Gold (ABX) he said, "Just can't stand these gold miners, they are awful. You want to own gold, own the GLD."

    So I wrote an article about looking for quality gold miners and developed a screen to find them to challenge Jim Cramer on his comment.

    The results since the article was written on Jan 25th 2012:

    (RGLD) : +23.82%
    (AUY) : +23.17%
    (FNV) : +33.54%

    (GLD) : +3.19%
    (GDX) : -7.29%

    So My picks greatly outperformed the GLD by a wide margin, as well as the GDX which is the ETF for Gold Miners. Also, the results dont account for dividends, just price return, so the outperformance is even greater because the GLD does not pay dividends.

    Link to my Gold Miner Article:
    Nov 29 05:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Picking Shares Of Intel Out Of The 'Old Tech' Waste Basket [View article]
    Thank you for your comment. Intel may be a falling knife, but it has a great balance sheet, pays a great well covered dividend [39% payout ratio], that is covered by increasing cash flows, and plenty of earnings.
    Nov 29 04:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Potential Giant Killer That Is Advanced Cell Technology [View article]
    Well they talked about two options of reverse split 20-1 or 80-1, at 20-1 new price based on current price of $0.073 would be $1.46 and at 80-1 price would be $5.84, so if they want to potentially be picked up by mutual funds and hedge funds they usually have a $5/share minimum price, so being a current shareholder I would vote for the 80-1 split so our shares could be bought by mutual funds and hedge funds.

    To answer the question about buying pre/post reverse split I would buy before the split and just make sure your share is a multiple of 80, so you dont end up with any fractional shares, which is what I did.

    DISCLOSURE: LONG (ACTC.OB) and may add to position on a pullback.
    Oct 8 11:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Private Equity That's Publicly Traded [View article]
    Very good article, I recently was searching for a BDC to add to my IRA for yield, and searched a did some research on all the companies above in your article as well as (TCAP) which is what I ended up choosing.

    Below are Total Returns from DRIP return calculator from feb 22 2007 when TCAP came public.

    BX: -41.02%
    ACAS: -59.62%
    ARCC: +118.07%
    FIG: -86.69%
    MCGC: -55.72%
    AINV: -17.57%
    TCAP: +129.17%

    When I compared TCAP and ARCC i used FinViz for monthly volatility and found (Return/Volatility):

    Because the returns were pretty close to each other i looked at FinViz category for EPS growth this past year and the results:

    TCAP: 45.93% EPS growth this past year.
    ARCC: -60.17% EPS growth this past year.

    So i decided to choose TCAP.

    Disclosure: Long TCAP
    Apr 8 11:42 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Investors Take Note That An Industry Report Shows Gold Production Dropping Precipitously [View article]
    With the scenario you outlined in your article about declining production, and your thoughts on gold miners, would owning Royalty companies like Franco Nevada (NYSE:FNV), or Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD) be a better option that large gold miners, or a broad basket like the GDX?

    Disclosure: Long FNV
    Jul 27 09:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Money Are You Planning To Lose In Your Bond Portfolio? [View article]
    You analysis is incomplete, you forgot to add the Income amount to your "Potential Value after decline" because bond investor focus on TOTAL RETURN. I redid your spreadsheet and added other bond funds that you forgot to mention some of which could be profitable when rates rise, and I have created a Google spreadsheet so I could correct your mistakes, so everyone could get the correct information.

    Some of the funds based on TOTAL RETURN that could make money:

    Jul 10 10:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment