Bernanke Semiannual Monetary Policy Report: The benefits of easing continue to outweigh the costs and risks, says Bernanke in his prepared testimony. Maybe putting to rest the kerfuffle from last week's FOMC minutes, he says QE will continue until there are substantial labor market gains. Watch live here. [View news story]
QE has been a great example of the Law of Diminishing returns, each round of QE has had less of an impact on the stock market then the previous round. We will get to a point very soon, where no matter how much QE there is, it wont matter.
5 Reasons The S&P 500 Could Fall 20% By The End Of 2013 [View article]
Thank you very much for the comment. I know my prediction was a little out there and against the herd. But by the end of the year we will know which of these is correct:
"History always repeats itself"
OR
"Past Performance is no guarantee of future results"
5 Reasons The S&P 500 Could Fall 20% By The End Of 2013 [View article]
Thank you for your comments. I believe a large portion of the stock market rise since the March 2009 lows is from huge amounts of QE that the US had. Paychecks got smaller because of the payroll tax cut expiring, so less money that is being put towards 401k, IRA by employees and employers.
What it looks like to me from looking at the chart is that when level of margin debt gets above that of the SPY, a top in the market is near. as is shown by the blue line being above the red line in 2007, 2008, and 2011. The far right side of the chart [current levels] show that the blue line is still aways below the red line, so I think we have more room to run higher until the level of margin debt catches up with the SPY. Just my thoughts on the subject,
Against The Grain: A 100% Bond Portfolio With Negative Correlation To A Broad Bond Market ETF [View article]
Thank you very much for your comments. I think it will be interesting to see what happens when the QE is removed, Using the iShares Barclays U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (GOVT) which owns treasury bonds with 1 year or more till maturity I found that GOVT has a 88% correlation to AGG, so when treasuries get hit because of rising rates, have Bond ETFs that are inversely correlated to treasury bonds will be desirable.
Also, when I entered my portfolio and compared it to GOVT, my portfolio had a Negative! 14% correlation to GOVT. So my portfolio should outperform broad bond market funds like AGG, and Treasury bond funds, as Interest rates rise.
Any Coming Rotation Won't Be So Great [View article]
bsorge,sounds very likely we are heading towards STAGFLATION!!
Definition from Wikipedia: "Stagflation is a situation where an inflation rate is high, the economic growth rate slows down, and unemployment remains steadily high."
Sounds alot like what is happening now!
A great website I like is shadowstats.com, the link is below, the second chart from the link below shows inflation calculated the way it was calculated in 1980 before it was changed to how it is calculated now. So, using the 1980 way to calculate inflation shadow stats says consumer inflation is about 9% whereas the CPI that is reported by the BLS is around 2%., If they use the 1990 way to calculate inflation before it was changed again, the inflation rate is currently about 5%. The CPI that is reported now I think grossly underestimates the real inflation that is out there.
A New Permanent Portfolio For The 21st Century [View article]
Thank you for the comment. I am a fan of Harry Brownes, because he made a simple portfolio that accomplish long term investment goals. I just wanted to update it to include more asset classes so it would be more diversified.
Predicting Warren Buffett's Next New Holding [View article]
Using Longrundata.com calculating from the start of 2000 to the current date.
Berkshires Annualized total return: +7.80% SPY Annualized total return: +2.04%
Averaging 7.80%/year return is pretty solid I believe, when you compare it to the SPY with 2.04%/year return over the same period. So when you say "Since 2000 it's been flat" the data shows otherwise.
The Best Way To Invest In Technology [View article]
No there is no leveraged ETF that tracks that index. Article title was the best way to invest in technology, I think QTEC or the Technology Dividend ETF (TDIV) are the two past ways to play technology.
The Best Way To Invest In Technology [View article]
You do realize that the QQQ only has a 63.37% allocation to technology, and is not a pure play on technology. The largest piece of the remaining allocation is allocated to Consumer discretionary 17.27%, healthcare 11.96%, and the other major sectors making up the remaining percentage.
If you want a true technology investment I would suggest the First Trust NASDAQ-100-Tech Index ETF (QTEC), which only invests in the technology companies in the QQQ, and excludes the other sectors. Also, it weights each company equally, so no one company can swing the ETF like (AAPL) can with the QQQ, or XLK.
Picking Shares Of Intel Out Of The 'Old Tech' Waste Basket [View article]
Thank you for your comment. I agree that it would be tough getting through the anti trust issues. If Intel wanted to make a really accretive acquisition and a huge bet on mobile, they would try to buy Qualcom (QCOM), but with QCOM having a $108 Billion Market cap, that would be extremely tough, but fun to think about because of Intels free cash flow, as well as the low rate environment which they could get a low rate for a loan.
Picking Shares Of Intel Out Of The 'Old Tech' Waste Basket [View article]
Thank you for your comment. I agree with you, that the death of the PC is overblown, I think its really the death of the Desktop rather than the death of the PC. I would expect more corporations, and the general public to spend on new laptops, ultrabooks, tablets, and smartphones rather than buy a new desktop computer. Yes Intel getsnearly 15% of its revenues from desktops processor, but desktops aren't going away overnight, so Intel has time to continue developing new chips for the ever expanding smartphone market.
Team Alpha Retirement Portfolio: Dividend Investing Vs. Annuity Purchasing [View article]
Bernanke Semiannual Monetary Policy Report: The benefits of easing continue to outweigh the costs and risks, says Bernanke in his prepared testimony. Maybe putting to rest the kerfuffle from last week's FOMC minutes, he says QE will continue until there are substantial labor market gains. Watch live here. [View news story]
5 Reasons The S&P 500 Could Fall 20% By The End Of 2013 [View article]
"History always repeats itself"
OR
"Past Performance is no guarantee of future results"
5 Reasons The S&P 500 Could Fall 20% By The End Of 2013 [View article]
5 Reasons The S&P 500 Could Fall 20% By The End Of 2013 [View article]
NYSE Margin Debt Stalks All-Time Highs [View article]
Against The Grain: A 100% Bond Portfolio With Negative Correlation To A Broad Bond Market ETF [View article]
Also, when I entered my portfolio and compared it to GOVT, my portfolio had a Negative! 14% correlation to GOVT. So my portfolio should outperform broad bond market funds like AGG, and Treasury bond funds, as Interest rates rise.
Any Coming Rotation Won't Be So Great [View article]
Definition from Wikipedia: "Stagflation is a situation where an inflation rate is high, the economic growth rate slows down, and unemployment remains steadily high."
Sounds alot like what is happening now!
A great website I like is shadowstats.com, the link is below, the second chart from the link below shows inflation calculated the way it was calculated in 1980 before it was changed to how it is calculated now. So, using the 1980 way to calculate inflation shadow stats says consumer inflation is about 9% whereas the CPI that is reported by the BLS is around 2%., If they use the 1990 way to calculate inflation before it was changed again, the inflation rate is currently about 5%. The CPI that is reported now I think grossly underestimates the real inflation that is out there.
http://bit.ly/lmDmS2
A New Permanent Portfolio For The 21st Century [View article]
Predicting Warren Buffett's Next New Holding [View article]
Berkshires Annualized total return: +7.80%
SPY Annualized total return: +2.04%
Averaging 7.80%/year return is pretty solid I believe, when you compare it to the SPY with 2.04%/year return over the same period. So when you say "Since 2000 it's been flat" the data shows otherwise.
The Best Way To Invest In Technology [View article]
The Best Way To Invest In Technology [View article]
If you want a true technology investment I would suggest the First Trust NASDAQ-100-Tech Index ETF (QTEC), which only invests in the technology companies in the QQQ, and excludes the other sectors. Also, it weights each company equally, so no one company can swing the ETF like (AAPL) can with the QQQ, or XLK.
Bright Spots In The Fertilizer Market: Robert Winslow [View article]
Picking Shares Of Intel Out Of The 'Old Tech' Waste Basket [View article]
Picking Shares Of Intel Out Of The 'Old Tech' Waste Basket [View article]