Seeking Alpha

Brad Kenagy

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Brad Kenagy's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Picking Shares Of Intel Out Of The 'Old Tech' Waste Basket [View article]
    Douglas,

    Thank you for your comment. Well I have proven Cramer wrong earlier this year, he said on his "Six in 60" segment when he got to the last company, Barrick Gold (ABX) he said, "Just can't stand these gold miners, they are awful. You want to own gold, own the GLD."

    So I wrote an article about looking for quality gold miners and developed a screen to find them to challenge Jim Cramer on his comment.

    The results since the article was written on Jan 25th 2012:

    (RGLD) : +23.82%
    (AUY) : +23.17%
    (FNV) : +33.54%

    (GLD) : +3.19%
    (GDX) : -7.29%

    So My picks greatly outperformed the GLD by a wide margin, as well as the GDX which is the ETF for Gold Miners. Also, the results dont account for dividends, just price return, so the outperformance is even greater because the GLD does not pay dividends.

    Link to my Gold Miner Article:

    http://bit.ly/11lzFMG
    Nov 29 05:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Picking Shares Of Intel Out Of The 'Old Tech' Waste Basket [View article]
    Thank you for your comment. Intel may be a falling knife, but it has a great balance sheet, pays a great well covered dividend [39% payout ratio], that is covered by increasing cash flows, and plenty of earnings.
    Nov 29 04:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Potential Giant Killer That Is Advanced Cell Technology [View article]
    Well they talked about two options of reverse split 20-1 or 80-1, at 20-1 new price based on current price of $0.073 would be $1.46 and at 80-1 price would be $5.84, so if they want to potentially be picked up by mutual funds and hedge funds they usually have a $5/share minimum price, so being a current shareholder I would vote for the 80-1 split so our shares could be bought by mutual funds and hedge funds.

    To answer the question about buying pre/post reverse split I would buy before the split and just make sure your share is a multiple of 80, so you dont end up with any fractional shares, which is what I did.

    DISCLOSURE: LONG (ACTC.OB) and may add to position on a pullback.
    Oct 8 11:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Private Equity That's Publicly Traded [View article]
    Very good article, I recently was searching for a BDC to add to my IRA for yield, and searched a did some research on all the companies above in your article as well as (TCAP) which is what I ended up choosing.

    Below are Total Returns from Dividendchannel.com DRIP return calculator from feb 22 2007 when TCAP came public.

    http://bit.ly/Hyaf5H


    BX: -41.02%
    ACAS: -59.62%
    ARCC: +118.07%
    FIG: -86.69%
    MCGC: -55.72%
    AINV: -17.57%
    TCAP: +129.17%


    When I compared TCAP and ARCC i used FinViz for monthly volatility and found (Return/Volatility):

    Because the returns were pretty close to each other i looked at FinViz category for EPS growth this past year and the results:

    TCAP: 45.93% EPS growth this past year.
    ARCC: -60.17% EPS growth this past year.

    So i decided to choose TCAP.

    Disclosure: Long TCAP
    Apr 8 11:42 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM to make 'major announcement,' release earnings Monday morning [View news story]
    The globalfoundaries deal, I dont think is "major" since it as been known that they were trying to unload the business.

    If I had to guess it is there are buying EMC, because HP & EMC ended merger talks, maybe IBM gave a better price? EMC + Large stake in VMW.
    Oct 19 09:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • YUM! Brands misses by $0.02, misses on revenue [View news story]
    Only in this market can a stock miss EPS estimates, Revenues and cut estimates and RISE afterhours lol.
    Oct 7 10:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Investors Take Note That An Industry Report Shows Gold Production Dropping Precipitously [View article]
    With the scenario you outlined in your article about declining production, and your thoughts on gold miners, would owning Royalty companies like Franco Nevada (NYSE:FNV), or Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD) be a better option that large gold miners, or a broad basket like the GDX?

    Disclosure: Long FNV
    Jul 27 09:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Money Are You Planning To Lose In Your Bond Portfolio? [View article]
    You analysis is incomplete, you forgot to add the Income amount to your "Potential Value after decline" because bond investor focus on TOTAL RETURN. I redid your spreadsheet and added other bond funds that you forgot to mention some of which could be profitable when rates rise, and I have created a Google spreadsheet so I could correct your mistakes, so everyone could get the correct information.

    http://bit.ly/1ncUEt5

    Some of the funds based on TOTAL RETURN that could make money:

    BSJF, OOSYX , TGTRX, SJNK, FLOT, HYHG, AGND, AGZD, IGHG, HYND, HYZD
    Jul 10 10:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Defensive Stocks' Are Not Much Help In Market Downturns [View article]
    Good article, I have a couple thoughts to add to the discussion. I recently wrote an article about finding high quality stocks, and the one stock that met all criteria for being the highest quality was Colgate-Palmolive (CL) which declined "only" 24.44% from the peak in October 2007 to the bottom in march 2009, and during that same period the S&P 400 declined 56.43%.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    As far as the summer 2011 decline, from April 29 2011 [the high for the S&P 500], to the low point on October 3rd, the S&p 500 had a decline of 19%, and CL had a return of POSITIVE 5%. In addition, In the past i have owned SH as a hedge against market declines and it was decent in times of crisis, but was atrocious the rest of the time. Instead for a hedge I would rather own the Barclays S&P 500 Dynamic VEQTOR ETN (http://bit.ly/1nsiabd), which allocates between stocks, cash, and the VIX. VQT was about about 7% in the summer 2011 fall. Since VQT started trading at the beginning of September 2010, SH has fallen nearly -52% with a few spikes during market declines but resumed its strong downward trend right after and the chart looks horrible. VQT on the other hand has returned +40% and has spiked during crisis periods just like SH, because of its dynamic allocation to stocks, cash, & the VIX. Once a decline is over VQT lowers its VIX exposure an adds exposure to stocks, and since the market has been rising, continued higher.

    In conclusion: VQT with same downside protection as SH in down markets, Long Stock exposure in sideways and up markets, VQT is the clear choice for a hedge. Also, CL has proven to be a good choice during market declines.

    Disclosure: I do not own SPY, CL, VQT, or SH.
    May 10 10:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Colgate-Palmolive: My Definition Of A Quality Stock [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. I should have equated that I equate a quality company to a quality stock even if the stock is overvalued, that doesn't change the fact that the company is quality. Thank you for bringing that up.
    Apr 27 03:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Colgate-Palmolive: My Definition Of A Quality Stock [View article]
    Thank you for your comment. I understand your confusion with the headline " crisis performance" I should have any Something like "Stock performance during crisis" and was what I was going for. This article is not meant for traders, its meant for long-term investors. When you said "If you're looking for a holding that looks nice and steady in your quarterly report to the accounts you manage, sure, go for pretty and stable numbers." That is exactly the type of company I was looking for and found using my process.
    Apr 27 10:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2014 Growth Stock Picks [View article]
    Only a portion of the profit are passed off to employees, the majority sticks with the company.
    Dec 21 07:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Yield Spreads Hit A 6-Year Low [View article]
    I trust market data like above rather than Government reported data for growth & CPI which can be inaccurate or changed. For example starting in the third quarter of this year the government changed how it calculated GDP.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 10 08:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Ways To Expose Yourself To Today's Market [View article]
    I have been thinking about a combo trade for my alternative portion of my portfolio, with XIV having a 85% correlation to the SPY. My idea is an 85% allocation to XIV or SVXY, and a 15% allocation to the Direxion Daily 30-Year Treasury Bull 3x Shares ETF (TMF) or the ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury ETF (UBT) to smooth out returns during downturns.
    Dec 2 08:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big U.S. GDP Beat: Hype Versus Reality [View article]
    I believe GDP beat expectations because the government changed the way they calculated GDP starting in Q3 of this year. Here is a link to another SA author who covered this.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Nov 10 10:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,528 Comments
671 Likes