Seeking Alpha

Brad Kenagy

 
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  • 'Defensive Stocks' Are Not Much Help In Market Downturns [View article]
    Good article, I have a couple thoughts to add to the discussion. I recently wrote an article about finding high quality stocks, and the one stock that met all criteria for being the highest quality was Colgate-Palmolive (CL) which declined "only" 24.44% from the peak in October 2007 to the bottom in march 2009, and during that same period the S&P 400 declined 56.43%.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    As far as the summer 2011 decline, from April 29 2011 [the high for the S&P 500], to the low point on October 3rd, the S&p 500 had a decline of 19%, and CL had a return of POSITIVE 5%. In addition, In the past i have owned SH as a hedge against market declines and it was decent in times of crisis, but was atrocious the rest of the time. Instead for a hedge I would rather own the Barclays S&P 500 Dynamic VEQTOR ETN (http://bit.ly/1nsiabd), which allocates between stocks, cash, and the VIX. VQT was about about 7% in the summer 2011 fall. Since VQT started trading at the beginning of September 2010, SH has fallen nearly -52% with a few spikes during market declines but resumed its strong downward trend right after and the chart looks horrible. VQT on the other hand has returned +40% and has spiked during crisis periods just like SH, because of its dynamic allocation to stocks, cash, & the VIX. Once a decline is over VQT lowers its VIX exposure an adds exposure to stocks, and since the market has been rising, continued higher.

    In conclusion: VQT with same downside protection as SH in down markets, Long Stock exposure in sideways and up markets, VQT is the clear choice for a hedge. Also, CL has proven to be a good choice during market declines.

    Disclosure: I do not own SPY, CL, VQT, or SH.
    May 10 10:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Colgate-Palmolive: My Definition Of A Quality Stock [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. I should have equated that I equate a quality company to a quality stock even if the stock is overvalued, that doesn't change the fact that the company is quality. Thank you for bringing that up.
    Apr 27 03:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Colgate-Palmolive: My Definition Of A Quality Stock [View article]
    Thank you for your comment. I understand your confusion with the headline " crisis performance" I should have any Something like "Stock performance during crisis" and was what I was going for. This article is not meant for traders, its meant for long-term investors. When you said "If you're looking for a holding that looks nice and steady in your quarterly report to the accounts you manage, sure, go for pretty and stable numbers." That is exactly the type of company I was looking for and found using my process.
    Apr 27 10:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2014 Growth Stock Picks [View article]
    Only a portion of the profit are passed off to employees, the majority sticks with the company.
    Dec 21 07:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Yield Spreads Hit A 6-Year Low [View article]
    I trust market data like above rather than Government reported data for growth & CPI which can be inaccurate or changed. For example starting in the third quarter of this year the government changed how it calculated GDP.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 10 08:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Ways To Expose Yourself To Today's Market [View article]
    I have been thinking about a combo trade for my alternative portion of my portfolio, with XIV having a 85% correlation to the SPY. My idea is an 85% allocation to XIV or SVXY, and a 15% allocation to the Direxion Daily 30-Year Treasury Bull 3x Shares ETF (TMF) or the ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury ETF (UBT) to smooth out returns during downturns.
    Dec 2 08:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big U.S. GDP Beat: Hype Versus Reality [View article]
    I believe GDP beat expectations because the government changed the way they calculated GDP starting in Q3 of this year. Here is a link to another SA author who covered this.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Nov 10 10:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Simple Screen To Find Lesser Known Momentum Stocks [View article]
    No thanks, I want no part of insider information.
    Nov 5 08:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For 0% Bond Allocation [View article]
    Good article, I have a suggestion to still have a bond allocation in a portfolio and that is to own convertible bonds or convertible bond ETFs like the SPDR Barclays Capital Convertible Bond ETF (CWB). For example this year from May 2nd [Low in rates] to september 5th [high in rates] here is the data I found:

    CWB Return: 5.1%
    AGG Return: -5.1%
    SPY Return: 4.4%

    CWB had a 25% correlation to AGG, and 83% correlation to SPY.

    CWB provides a better yield, and lower volatility than the SPY but still provides a high correlation to equity performance.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any funds mentioned.
    Nov 4 01:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preferred Shares As A Replacement For Bonds To Increase Returns On One's Nest Egg [View article]
    Henry,

    Very good article,I am also a fan of preferred stocks as well for income, I prefer to spread my risk around, so instead of owning individual preferred stocks I decided to buy the Market Vectors Preferred Securities ex Financials ETF (PFXF) which owns preferred stocks, with no financial preferred, because im not a fan of financials. It does has a large allocation to REIT preferred stocks of 31.5%.

    http://bit.ly/19dUahw
    Oct 8 03:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Creating A Portfolio To Outperform Obamacare [View article]
    Thank you for your comment. I don't like your whining comment, and you do not know my financial situation so please don't make speculations about that. Also, redistribution=socialism, and with the ACA I am being forced to subsidize others. Yes I understand its for the better of humanity, but the price 228% price increase is quite extreme.

    Why can't health insurance be like auto insurance Good Driver=Less cost, Bad Driver=Higher cost. Anytime the government gets involved with something the costs rise, that's a proven fact!
    Sep 29 03:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Producers Could Soon Be Victims Of Their Own Success [View article]
    I think your selection of UNG is not very good even if hedged. There are two better natural gas ETFs that are worth owning, first if you want exposure to natural gas futures like UNG has, I would rather own The United States 12 Month Natural Gas ETF (UNL) which owns contracts accross 12 months vs 1 for UNG.

    Since UNL inception on 1/4/2010

    UNL: -69.84%
    UNG: -78.40%

    UNL performance is slightly better, but still horrible overall.

    The best choice I like for exposure to natural gas is First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index ETF (FCG) which The index is constructed by establishing the universe of U.S. listed stocks of companies involved in the exploration and production of natural gas.

    Using the same starting date of 1/4/2010 to compare to UNG/UNL, FCG has a return of +2.36%.

    Just my thoughts, and thought I should bring it up.
    Sep 24 09:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 4% Plan - A Permanent Income Stream Solution [View article]
    Very good article, I have a suggestion that could increase the income of the portfolio even further. If you add for the precious metals allocation the Credit Suisse Gold Shares Covered Call ETN (GLDI) or Credit Suisse Silver Shares Covered Call ETN (SLVO), you could increase the income even further of the portfolio.

    Disclosure: No Positions in either fund
    Sep 20 10:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Creating A Portfolio To Outperform Obamacare [View article]
    I don't know what everyone is complaining about, I have never heard of the heritage foundation before this article. If you think the source is not credible, here is two recent Forbes articles, I chose the heritage article because it showed all 50 states. The numbers from the from each states department of insurance is pretty close to the estimate on the heritage page so I don't know what the big deal is.

    http://onforb.es/16HcfEO

    http://onforb.es/16Hchwc
    Aug 24 09:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bubble Continues To Form In The Stock Market [View article]
    I am long equities, I just have cut my exposure back.
    Aug 3 10:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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