Seeking Alpha

Brad Kenagy

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  • Stocks And Commodities Signaling A Downturn [View article]
    No, It is LONG low beta stocks, and SHORT high beta stocks. When the market falls high beta stocks tend to lose more than low beta stocks. So as long as high beta stocks lose more than the low beta stocks in the portfolio, the fund will profit.

    An Example: From Sep 14th 2012 [The Previous High] to the November 15th low:

    HDGE: +6.65%
    SH: +7.58%
    BTAL: +7.06%

    Now what separates BTAL from SH or HDGE is its performance during bull markets.

    From Novemeber 15th low to today.

    HDGE: -17.10%
    SH: -14.53%
    BTAL: -8.79%


    AS the data shows BTAL participates to the downside in the SPY right along with SH and HDGE, but when the market is strong, BTAL loses significantly less during period of market strength.
    Mar 18 11:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Feb. Consumer Price Index: +0.7% vs. +0.5% expected, 0.0% prior. Core CPI +0.2% vs. +0.2% expected, +0.3% prior. [View news story]
    Shadowstats.com says inflation is around 9%, using the method of calculating inflation before it was changed in 1980, and 1990 by the government. So inflation is under reported from what it really is. Think what the bond market would be like if the gov. had to pay 9% on TIPS bonds.
    Mar 15 11:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The MUB falls for a 7th straight session - now testing its 200-day moving average for the first time in 2 years. Municipals got beat up in late 2012 when it was rumored their tax-exempt status was to be served up as part of a budget deal. The scare subsided, but Morgan Stanley still sees a 30% chance of that happening. MUB -3.4% since the election. [View news story]
    If the government changes the tax status, investors will want more yield to compensate for the loss returns, which will in turn cause states to have to pay more for borrowing costs, and thus strain states budgets even further.

    Someone please let me know if that logic sounds correct.
    Mar 12 08:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Team Alpha Retirement Portfolio: Dividend Investing Vs. Annuity Purchasing [View article]
    I agree RNF,UAN, and TNH are the three fertilizer MLPS I looked at buying, but I chose RNF out of the three.
    Mar 3 10:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Team Alpha Retirement Portfolio: Dividend Investing Vs. Annuity Purchasing [View article]
    Thank you, I know AMLP is a C-Corp. It Provides a 6% yield, and because its a C-Corp it takes around 35% out of the fund for taxes, so AMLP has an effective leverage of 65%, so because of that AMLP has less volatility than AMJ.

    -AMLP rises less than AMJ when the underlying index rises, and
    -AMLP falls less than AMJ when the underlying index falls. SO, it provides somewhat of downside protection.

    I have been very pleased with the fund since I bought when it first started trading.

    Thank you for your suggestions but I am sticking with AMLP.
    Mar 2 07:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Team Alpha Retirement Portfolio: Dividend Investing Vs. Annuity Purchasing [View article]
    I should clarify, I own all the above funds in my ROTH IRA.
    Mar 2 12:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Team Alpha Retirement Portfolio: Dividend Investing Vs. Annuity Purchasing [View article]
    I would eliminate the Pimco Dynamic Dividend Fund because it is a Closed End Fund, and not an ETF. I would also eliminate it because it overlaps with your other dividend funds. Also, another problem I see is that the portfolio is heavily allocated to stocks 90%, and 10% to preferred stocks.

    DTN covers Large AND Midcap ex-financials dividends, so you have more overlap there. For the most part the portfolio is good, but Below is the portfolio with my few additions to replace DON,and PDI.

    My reworked allocation:

    Symbol Divy% %Allocation ETF
    DTN 4.38% 20% Wisdom Tree Div ex-financials
    DES 4.14% 20% Wisdom Tree SmallCap Dividend
    SDIV 7.22% 10% Global x Super Dividend Fund
    KBWD 8.37% 10% High Div Yield Finaicials
    PFXF 6.16% 10% Market Vector Pref exFinancials

    Additions:
    (BOND) 1.90% 10% PIMCO Total Return ETF
    (PZA) 4.03% 10% PowerShares Insured National Municipal Bond Portfolio ETF
    (FXA) 2.05% 10% CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust ETF


    Just a couple ideas to think about.
    Mar 2 12:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Team Alpha Retirement Portfolio: Dividend Investing Vs. Annuity Purchasing [View article]
    RNF isnt a ETF, it is a company Rentech Nitrogen Partners, L.P. (RNF) and has a current yield of 7.32%
    Mar 2 11:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • March Madness Trading Challenge [View instapost]
    Since the contest isnt full, yet would you guys be willing to let me extend the contest entry period another week so that it could fill up all the way to the full 64 users??
    Feb 28 10:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke Semiannual Monetary Policy Report: The benefits of easing continue to outweigh the costs and risks, says Bernanke in his prepared testimony. Maybe putting to rest the kerfuffle from last week's FOMC minutes, he says QE will continue until there are substantial labor market gains. Watch live here[View news story]
    QE has been a great example of the Law of Diminishing returns, each round of QE has had less of an impact on the stock market then the previous round. We will get to a point very soon, where no matter how much QE there is, it wont matter.
    Feb 26 11:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons The S&P 500 Could Fall 20% By The End Of 2013 [View article]
    Thank you very much for the comment. I know my prediction was a little out there and against the herd. But by the end of the year we will know which of these is correct:

    "History always repeats itself"

    OR

    "Past Performance is no guarantee of future results"
    Feb 22 10:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons The S&P 500 Could Fall 20% By The End Of 2013 [View article]
    Thank you for your comments. I believe a large portion of the stock market rise since the March 2009 lows is from huge amounts of QE that the US had. Paychecks got smaller because of the payroll tax cut expiring, so less money that is being put towards 401k, IRA by employees and employers.
    Feb 21 08:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons The S&P 500 Could Fall 20% By The End Of 2013 [View article]
    Thank you for your comments, but I respectfully disagree with you.
    Feb 21 04:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • March Madness Trading Challenge [View instapost]
    Thank you for the idea, I thought about that, but it is more difficult to make sure a large number of people make their picks each week.
    Feb 21 01:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NYSE Margin Debt Stalks All-Time Highs [View article]
    What it looks like to me from looking at the chart is that when level of margin debt gets above that of the SPY, a top in the market is near. as is shown by the blue line being above the red line in 2007, 2008, and 2011. The far right side of the chart [current levels] show that the blue line is still aways below the red line, so I think we have more room to run higher until the level of margin debt catches up with the SPY. Just my thoughts on the subject,
    Feb 15 03:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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