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Brad Kenagy

 
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  • Rentech Nitrogen Partners: Investors With An Eye Only On The Sky Might Miss Something [View article]
    I agree the article was very well written.
    Jun 17 01:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Is Not Different This Time - It Is Worse [View article]
    Just saw this piece of info on Market Currents: "The hot market for corporate junk (HYG, JNK) has pushed the yield on high-yield corporates (4.88%) well below that of high-yield municipals (5.22% nominally, over 8% on a tax-equivalent basis). The nominal spread of 34 bps is down from 56 bps a week ago as investors take notice of the anomaly."

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    May 20 01:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Candidates For When The Tide Goes Out [View article]
    Thank you for your comments. I disagree with you. I used INTC as an example because it is the biggest player in the chip space.

    I bet from the close today, until to the end of the year, INTC, NVDA, ARMH, and QCOM will all outperform AMD.
    May 9 12:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing DuPont: 3% Yield And Undervalued [View article]
    Thank you for your comments. When you say "but from the inside hallways, we can tell you that it's already OVER-PRICED today." My question to you is, what hallways are you talk about [do you work for DuPont?] and who is the "WE" you are referring to??
    May 3 05:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: Financial Shenanigans, Painful Truth Coming [View article]
    Great call on T, down over 5% today.
    Apr 24 10:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Popular Fixed Income ETFs I Would Never Own [View article]
    Comparing AGG and BND to the other funds is not an apples to apples comparison because AGG and BND are forced to own investment grade bonds, where as the mutual funds you described can hold high yield debt emerging market debt etc in addition to investment grade bonds, thus raising the yields, and still maintaining a short duration.

    DBLFX currently has a 12.20% allocation to emerging markets, and credit wise has a total of 17% of its holdings that are below investment grade or not rated.

    I can go on and on, but I agree with you active management in bonds can be good especially now with rates so low, but it is irresponsible to compare ETFs which CAN NOT own the same asset classes as the mutual funds you listed can. Im sure if AGG and BND were able to own emerging market bonds, or high yield bonds the performance gap would be much closer.
    Apr 11 04:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CNBC.com ETF Portfolios [View article]
    I agree with you that the portfolio give a good general framework but I see alot! of overlap that will add to transaction costs. I'll go through section by section

    CASH:

    GSY is a good choice, an alternative choice would be the PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Strategy ETF (MINT)

    US EQUITIES:

    SPY and SCHD have a 96% correlation so they are essentially the same thing except SCHD has a higher dividend. SPY also have a 96% correlation to VO, and 85% correlation to FXH. So I would replace SPY,and VO with an ETF like the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) since SCHD only has around a 3% weighting to Utilities.

    EMERGING MARKETS EQUITIES:

    DEM and ECON have a 89% correlation so I would get rid of ECON and keep DEM because DEM has a higher yield.

    DEVELOPED INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES:

    When comparing the correlations of VEU and IDLV, to the two emerging market etfs it is clear that VEU is highly correlated to the emerging markets etfs, and IDLV has a 61% correlation to DEM, and 59% correlation to ECON. So I would keep IDLV and get rid of VEU.

    FIXED INCOME:

    I think the fixed income section is actually fine because AGG has roughly 35% in treasuries, 29% in MBS,and 22% in corporates, so there is a little overlap with LQD, but not that much. AGG and LQD have a 78% correlation.

    OPPORTUNITY:

    I like the list except I would remove, BKLN, UUP, GDX, put in a different ETF like IAU.

    So using the funds listed with my changes, it would look like

    Cash-GSY
    US Equities-SCHD,XLU
    Emerging Markets Equities: DEM
    Developed Equities: IDLV
    Fixed Income: AGG,LQD,ELD
    Opportunity: IAU,HYLD,VNQI

    11 ETFs is much more manageable than 17 and is not as overlapping and correlated as the CNBC portfolio is. Just my thoughts on the subject. Maybe I'll write an article with my own suggestion for a "CNBC" portfolio.
    Apr 10 08:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Is Not Different This Time - It Is Worse [View article]
    Yes the refiners pay Brent prices when IMPORTING crude from the rest of the world. But when they get crude transported by pipeline, or rail that is from here, they get it at WTI prices.
    Apr 8 12:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger: Unexploded Bomb In Your Preferred Stock Portfolio [View article]
    Another option I was just looking at is the recently launched First Trust Preferred Securities and Income ETF (FPE) which is an actively managed Preferred stock ETF.

    The fund has really good volume for being fairly new and expense ratio is 0.85% which is higher than PFF, or PGX, but lower than most active ETFs.

    Seeking Alpha has the yield at: 5.07%

    Link to FPE fund page:

    http://bit.ly/14prTFs
    Mar 27 09:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger: Unexploded Bomb In Your Preferred Stock Portfolio [View article]
    Yes,the Market Vectors Preferred Securities ex Financials ETF (PFXF) it doesnt own financials, but it does own REIT preferreds which depending on what classification system you use are considered financials. But as far as owning preferred stocks of like banks, PFXF does not own them.
    Mar 27 07:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks And Commodities Signaling A Downturn [View article]
    No, It is LONG low beta stocks, and SHORT high beta stocks. When the market falls high beta stocks tend to lose more than low beta stocks. So as long as high beta stocks lose more than the low beta stocks in the portfolio, the fund will profit.

    An Example: From Sep 14th 2012 [The Previous High] to the November 15th low:

    HDGE: +6.65%
    SH: +7.58%
    BTAL: +7.06%

    Now what separates BTAL from SH or HDGE is its performance during bull markets.

    From Novemeber 15th low to today.

    HDGE: -17.10%
    SH: -14.53%
    BTAL: -8.79%


    AS the data shows BTAL participates to the downside in the SPY right along with SH and HDGE, but when the market is strong, BTAL loses significantly less during period of market strength.
    Mar 18 11:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Feb. Consumer Price Index: +0.7% vs. +0.5% expected, 0.0% prior. Core CPI +0.2% vs. +0.2% expected, +0.3% prior. [View news story]
    Shadowstats.com says inflation is around 9%, using the method of calculating inflation before it was changed in 1980, and 1990 by the government. So inflation is under reported from what it really is. Think what the bond market would be like if the gov. had to pay 9% on TIPS bonds.
    Mar 15 11:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The MUB falls for a 7th straight session - now testing its 200-day moving average for the first time in 2 years. Municipals got beat up in late 2012 when it was rumored their tax-exempt status was to be served up as part of a budget deal. The scare subsided, but Morgan Stanley still sees a 30% chance of that happening. MUB -3.4% since the election. [View news story]
    If the government changes the tax status, investors will want more yield to compensate for the loss returns, which will in turn cause states to have to pay more for borrowing costs, and thus strain states budgets even further.

    Someone please let me know if that logic sounds correct.
    Mar 12 08:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Team Alpha Retirement Portfolio: Dividend Investing Vs. Annuity Purchasing [View article]
    I agree RNF,UAN, and TNH are the three fertilizer MLPS I looked at buying, but I chose RNF out of the three.
    Mar 3 10:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Team Alpha Retirement Portfolio: Dividend Investing Vs. Annuity Purchasing [View article]
    Thank you, I know AMLP is a C-Corp. It Provides a 6% yield, and because its a C-Corp it takes around 35% out of the fund for taxes, so AMLP has an effective leverage of 65%, so because of that AMLP has less volatility than AMJ.

    -AMLP rises less than AMJ when the underlying index rises, and
    -AMLP falls less than AMJ when the underlying index falls. SO, it provides somewhat of downside protection.

    I have been very pleased with the fund since I bought when it first started trading.

    Thank you for your suggestions but I am sticking with AMLP.
    Mar 2 07:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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