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Brad Kenagy's  Instablog

Brad Kenagy
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History/Trading Style: I have been investing for 6 years. The subjects I focus primarily on are building custom portfolio's of ETF's, Technical analysis of stocks and ETF's, and value investing, as well as other topics.
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  • Seeking Alpha Trading Survivor Contest

    Contest Rules

    Every person that enters picks 1 stock/ETF at the beginning of the month. Picks should be posted in the comment section of this instablog post And each round of the contest lasts one month.

    Stock/ETF Selection rules:

    1. Only LONG or SHORT a stock, and No shorting a ETF.
    2. Price of atleast $1/share
    3. For stock they must have a market cap of atleast $100 million
    4. Traded on the NYSE, NASDAQ or AMEX
    5. No leveraged ETFs
    6. No Closed-End-Funds

    To advance to the next round (month) here would be the rules:

    • Your stock pick MUST have a higher return than that of the (SPY).
    • Your stock pick MUST have a positive return for the month.

    So, only the best stock pickers will advance, the contest would keep going until there is 1 winner.

    The goal is to highlight the best stock pickers on seeking alpha who necessarily dont have a huge number of followers but have real stock picking skills.

    Below are two tables, the first the table of players from January, and the second is a table with everyone who made it to the next round with their picks and opening prices [open prices retrieved from Yahoo Finance]

    February Results:

    Bill MauerShortKERX26.43%
    Matt SchillingLongIMUC20.95%
    realornotShortAPOL17.26%
    Brad KenagyLongMDRX14.09%
    Chasing the VigLongHLF10.72%
    Jim Van NaseumShortFSLR9.05%
    ModernistShortVRNG7.32%
    E.W. BarnabaLongZTS6.19%
    mktlab68LongSRPT5.74%

     

     

    SA User NameLong/Short?SymbolCompanyStart Price
    EW BarnabaShortBBYBest BUY Co Inc17.38
    Bill MauerShortHGSHChina Hgs Real Estate Inc5.04
    Matt SchillingLongGLWCorning Inc12.47
    realornotShortAPOLApollo Group Inc16.81
    Chasing the VigLongHLFHerbalife Ltd39.66
    ModernistShortVRNGVringo Inc3.08
    mktlab68LongNTINorthern Tier Energy LP28.9
    Brad KenagyLongAGUAgrium Inc104.16
    Jim Van NaseumShortFSLRFirst Solar Inc25.49
         
      SPYSPDR S&P 500151.09

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Tags: SPY
    Dec 12 1:04 PM | Link | 206 Comments
  • Technical Study Report 7/12/2012

    7/12/2012 Study Matches

    Below are the study matches for the day, also before looking at the list below please read my DISCLAIMER here.

    Bollinger Bands Study: NONE

    Reversal Study: Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN), Cummins Inc. (CMI), ACE Limited (ACE), PACCAR Inc. (PCAR)

    Fibonacci Study: NONE

    Study Descriptions

    Bollinger Bands Study:

    Bollinger Bands, ADX [Average Directional Index], Momentum, and A Moving Average

    Goal: Identify Stocks that are below the lower Bollinger band, and meet other criteria I have set using the three other technical indicators listed above.

    Reversal Study:

    Price Channels, ADX

    Goal: Identify stocks that are trending lower and show signs of reversal using Price channels and ADX.

    Fibonacci Study:

    Fibonacci Lines, RSI [Relative Strength Index] , and MFI [Money Flow Index]

    Goal: Identify stocks that have met certain Fibonacci retracement requirements as well as other criteria for RSI and MFI.

    Tracking Conditions:

    Entry: I will scan at the end of each day for any stocks that match any of the above three technical studies, and for tracking purposes will track the stock using the open from the day following the signal.

    Exit: The exit point for all three studies will be a gain of 30% within a 1 year time period, or 1 year from the original entry date, which ever comes first.

    Thoughts

    It has been nearly two weeks since any stocks met the criteria for any of my three indicators but today 4 stocks met the reversal study criteria, my thinking is that this is the start of a new short term downtrend.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Jul 13 7:22 PM | Link | 2 Comments
  • Daily Technical Study Report 6/26/2012

    6/26/2012 Study Matches

    Below are the study matches for the day, also before looking at the list below please read my DISCLAIMER here.

    Bollinger Bands Study: NONE

    Reversal Study: iShares MSCI Germany Index (EWG), iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index (ILF).

    Fibonacci Study: NONE

    Study Descriptions

    Bollinger Bands Study:

    Bollinger Bands, ADX [Average Directional Index], Momentum, and A Moving Average

    Goal: Identify Stocks that are below the lower Bollinger band, and meet other criteria I have set using the three other technical indicators listed above.

    Reversal Study:

    Price Channels, ADX

    Goal: Identify stocks that are trending lower and show signs of reversal using Price channels and ADX.

    Fibonacci Study:

    Fibonacci Lines, RSI [Relative Strength Index] , and MFI [Money Flow Index]

    Goal: Identify stocks that have met certain Fibonacci retracement requirements as well as other criteria for RSI and MFI.

    Tracking Conditions:

    Entry: I will scan at the end of each day for any stocks that match any of the above three technical studies, and for tracking purposes will track the stock using the open from the day following the signal.

    Exit: The exit point for all three studies will be a gain of 30% within a 1 year time period, or 1 year from the original entry date, which ever comes first.

    Thoughts

    I will now be only updating the blog if there is a study match or if a stock/ETF reaches the 30% gain target.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Jun 26 11:16 PM | Link | Comment!
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