Seeking Alpha

Brad Thomas

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Brad Thomas' Articles BY TICKER:
  • REITWorld 2014 Recap: UMH Properties, Inc.
    Nov. 8, 2014 UMH 10 Comments

    Summary

    • There’s no doubt that UMH’s 7.3% dividend yield is attractive.
    • Management at UMH has worked aggressively to increase its Funds from Operations so that it can begin to start increasing its dividend.
    • Eugene “Gene” Landy, Founder and Chairman of UMH Properties, says he and his family have "skin in the game".
  • REITWorld 2014 Recap: Physicians Realty
    Nov. 7, 2014 DOC 38 Comments

    Summary

    • Physicians Realty has returned 20.4% since I purchased shares in May 2014.
    • DOC is trading at $15.45 and the shares are moving closer to my 2014 year-end projected target of $16.00.
    • I see strong momentum to support the projected 30% growth rate in 2015.
  • REITWorld 2014 Recap: Realty Income
    Nov. 7, 2014 O 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Realty Income had another quarter with very predictable results.
    • I currently own shares in Realty Income and I am accumulating more shares.
    • While at the REITWorld conference today I interviewed the CEO, John Case.
  • REITWorld 2014 Recap: Gramercy Property Trust
    Nov. 7, 2014 GPT 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Gramercy Property Trust was my best overall REIT stock in 2013.
    • Gramercy's management team has an alignment of interest with shareholders.
    • Today I interviewed the company's CEO, Gordon Dugan.
  • REITWorld 2014 Recap: Kimco Realty
    Nov. 6, 2014 KIM 3 Comments

    Summary

    • I obtained an exclusive interview with the CEO of Kimco Realty this week at REITWorld 2014.
    • Dave Henry, CEO of Kimco, discuss Q3-14 earnings.
    • I’m happy with the 30% total return YTD – beating the S&P 500 that grew by 12.3% during the same period.
  • Lesson Learned: Focus On Quality, Not Quantity
    Nov. 4, 2014 VTR, EXR, O 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Success must be driven by an alignment of interest with all parties: buyers, sellers, and investors.
    • The market cap of the industry has grown by more than 21% per year for nearly 24 years since the beginning of the Modern REIT Era.
    • “Follow the root”. That’s what my mother always told me when trying to get a question answered.
  • Omega's Merger With Aviv Is A Marriage Built To Last
    Nov. 3, 2014 AVIV, OHI 32 Comments

    Summary

    • On Friday, I was excited to hear the news that Omega Healthcare was accelerating its footprint by combining (merging) with Aviv REIT.
    • The combined companies will have the largest concentration of SNF properties, and will be the only "pure-play" SNF REIT.
    • Given the proposed strategic merger plans with Omega and Aviv, I will now be able to overweight Omega, and that's terrific!
  • Taubman Centers Creates Value The Old Fashion Way
    Editors' Pick • Nov. 3, 2014 TCO 5 Comments

    Summary

    • The clock is ticking for Taubman as it relates to its 1031 exchange opportunity and while I would hope to see the equity deferred, I’m not expecting it to happen.
    • Development is a risky business and those with weaker stomachs should probably consider a more defensive REIT.
    • Taubman is one of the few REITs that can mitigate development risk and allow me to “sleep well at night”.
  • Lesson Learned: I Was The Sucker
    Oct. 31, 2014 ARCP 402 Comments

    Summary

    • When I purchased shares in ARCP last year, I was truly hoping to own this REIT for the long haul.
    • Let’s face it, ARCP has a crisis on its hands.
    • The author liquidated all ARCP shares at $9.57.
  • More Than A Ray Of Hope For Sun Communities
       • Oct. 28, 2014 SUI 10 Comments

    Summary

    • It would seem opportunistic for Berkshire Hathaway to invest in Sun Communities, since the Oracle from Omaha already owns Clayton Homes.
    • By owning a scaleable Manufactured Housing REIT, it would seem logical that Buffett's crown jewel could extend its moat by vertically integrating the Clayton brand.
    • By maintaining an adequate margin of safety, I see more than a ray of hope for Sun Communities. I see a durable REIT that should outperform.
  • Pebblebrook Hotel Trust Is Not A Bargain, What About Chatham?
    Oct. 28, 2014 PEB, CLDT 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Pebblebrook is not trading at a bargain price today and as a result, the company has the most expensive P/FFO multiples in the Hotel sector.
    • It’s obvious that Mr. Market sees the same quality in Pebblebrook that I see…that means I must wait for a pullback.
    • I like Chatham’s strategy of focusing on premium brand select service hotels. I will have a lot better chance of success if I wait for a revised entry target of $22.50.
  • Ventas Is Continuing To Build A Powerful Brand Of Dividend Repeatability
    Editors' Pick • Oct. 27, 2014 VTR 42 Comments

    Summary

    • "The Ventas brand is a business-to-business brand." - Debra Cafaro, CEO of Ventas, Inc.
    • "Your premium brand had better be delivering something special, or it's not going to get the business." - Warren Buffett.
    • "It is the consistency in the products that creates consistency in a company's profits. Consistency and durability are attributes for competitive advantage." - Benjamin Graham.
  • The Inside Scoop On Corporate Property Trust
    Oct. 24, 2014 OFC 15 Comments

    Summary

    • "We have proven office park locations and developable land that serve four of the top five U.S. defense installations." Roger Waesche.
    • "We manage the risk associated with development so vigorously, and continually look for opportunities to improve our balance sheet is to ensure the safety of our dividend." Roger Waesche.
    • "We provide mission critical locations out of which they and supporting defense contractors operate." Roger Waesche.
  • Mr. Buffett: Why Don't You Invest In REITs?
    Oct. 24, 2014 AXP, IBM, KO 84 Comments

    Summary

    • I often hear you acknowledging the fact that your companies generate premium valuations due to vetted “hands on” senior management.
    • It seems reasonable to assume that Berkshire Hathaway should populate its portfolio with assets that yield returns with sufficiently differentiated attributes from other investments.
    • Comparing the long-term performance with large-caps, small caps, foreign stocks, bonds, and commodities it's plain to see that REITs deserve a value place setting in any intelligent portfolio.
    • Although Berkshire Hathaway has maintained an impressive track record even without distributing dividends, academic research shows that most companies tend to squander free cash flow, often through ill-advised acquisitions.
  • Is American Realty Capital Properties A 'Sucker Yield' Bet?
    Editors' Pick • Oct. 23, 2014 ARCP 377 Comments

    Summary

    • My biggest concern with ARCP has to do with the unusually high yield that also signals that the dividend could be in danger of being reduced.
    • Companies that fall under the "sucker-yield" definition typically have unpredictable and unreliable earnings histories with unsafe dividend payouts.
    • I will not be suckered into a trap where my principal is not safe.
  • Building A REIT Portfolio For A High School Kid
    Oct. 22, 2014 CBL, CSG, EXL 68 Comments

    Summary

    • Recently I sat down with my high school daughter to explain the concept of investing.
    • The good thing for my high schooler is that time is on her side and she has plenty of years to watch her nest egg grow.
    • “Keeping up with the Joneses” is an easy temptation to fall into. - Neale Godfrey.
    • A friend of mine used to call the world we live in today “the King-dom of Thing-dom".
  • Another Boring Dividend Increase For Omega Healthcare Investors
    Oct. 21, 2014 OHI 45 Comments

    Summary

    • "The safest dividend is the one’s that’s just been raised.” Josh Peters.
    • The very predictable dividend increases tell me that management is committed to maintain and increase the dividend.
    • The moral to this story is to wait patiently and invest in value stocks much like you would for crops.
    • Thanks to Mr. Market, the sun is shining down on Omega Healthcare Investors offering me a stress-free life of value investing.
  • Healthcare Trust Of America Is A Valuable Player On My All-Star Team
    Oct. 20, 2014 HTA 21 Comments

    Summary

    • "Real estate investors in the healthcare sector are typically looking for a combination of solid, defensive current income and the opportunity for steady cash flow growth." Scott Peters.
    • "We are in a great position for the current markets where values are increasing at a rapid pace." Scott Peters.
    • For a Long investor (like me) I see no reason to Sell and I will continue to accumulate shares in periods of market weakness.
  • Lexington Realty Trust: Patience Is A Virtue
    Editors' Pick • Oct. 20, 2014 LXP 58 Comments

    Summary

    • Loss, as defined by Howard Marks (in his book, The Most Important Thing), is what happens when risk and adversity collide.
    • After examining the catalysts for Lexington, I consider the shares to be trading at a moderate discount.
    • My “top pick” for 2014 has not performed but as I said at the outset, I really haven’t lost yet.
    • There are a number of catalysts in place (for Lexington) that should move the needle and the dividend appears to be safe and growing.
  • A Textbook Model Of Dividend Predictability
    Editors' Pick • Oct. 18, 2014 O 109 Comments

    Summary

    • It stands to reason that a value investor should examine any potential investment based upon ALL metrics, especially the methods that are the most meaningful for dividend investors.
    • The simplest model for valuing equity is the dividend discount model - the value of a stock is the present value of expected dividends on it.
    • Realty Income's stock valuation is tailor made for the DDM and perhaps may even be a "conservative" way to value the stock.
  • Cracker Barrel Is A Cash Cow, Here's How To Milk It
    Editors' Pick • Oct. 14, 2014 CBRL 46 Comments

    Summary

    • Cracker Barrel operates 633 stores and of that the company owns the land and buildings for 417 stores.
    • Considering that Cracker Barrel owns a significant amount of real estate it seems logical that the company could improve its overall efficiency (capital structure) by unlocking real estate value.
    • It would seem reasonable that a value investor would recognize the wealth that could be created by spinning the real estate into a REIT structure.
  • It's Not Rocket Science: BioMed Is A Buy
    Editors' Pick • Oct. 14, 2014 BMR 25 Comments

    Summary

    • Today, the world is on edge with the Ebola virus disease in which 8,376 suspected cases resulting in the deaths of 4,024 have been reported (source: Wikipedia).
    • I don’t think that Mr. Market is giving the company adequate credit for its improved balance sheet and continued diversification efforts.
    • Given the strong macroeconomic environment in the pharmaceutical sector, BioMed appears to be trading at a cheap valuation.
  • How To Know When A REIT Is Worth Buying
    Oct. 13, 2014 AGNC, ARCP, DFT 48 Comments

    Summary

    • I try to maintain a laser-focus on fundamentals before I see what Mr. Market is thinking.
    • One of the reasons that I don’t research many Mortgage REITs is because of Rule #1 – protect your principal at all costs.
    • "It’s about figuring out what something is worth, and then paying a lot less for it.” Joel Greenblatt.
  • Looking For Some Net Lease REIT Bargains You May Be Missing?
    Oct. 10, 2014 ARCP, O, LXP 21 Comments

    Summary

    • Yesterday Mr. Market decided to turn on the blue light special “again” for ARCP.
    • It’s clear that the demand for ARCP shares today has more to do with the intoxicating dividend yield, an aroma that lured me to put shares in the shopping cart.
    • "Your premium brand had better be delivering something special, or it's not going to get the business.” Warren Buffett.
  • Agellan Commercial Shares Could 'Take Off', Eh?
    Oct. 9, 2014 ACRVF 29 Comments

    Summary

    • When you compare Agellan's P/FFO multiple, the value looks even better - trading at 7.7x - that screams bargain, eh?
    • Agellan is a small-cap REIT, and the company has less than two years of operating history.
    • I’m not going pounce on the shares today, but I will definitely be adding the REIT to my "REITs that Pay Monthly" research.
  • The Music Is Still Playing For New York REIT
    Editors' Pick • Oct. 8, 2014 NYRT 21 Comments

    Summary

    • Nicholas Schorsch is somewhat of a magician in which he has been able to successfully manipulate multiple REIT platforms.
    • Schorsch has shown a propensity to sell so that he can publicize a "win" and sell more non-traded shares - where his bread is really buttered.
    • There’s no slowing down but remember how the game ends in musical chairs? Don’t be the last one standing.
  • Excel Trust: An Unpolished Gem Considered A Diamond In The Rough
    Editors' Pick • Oct. 7, 2014 EXL 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Sometimes by sifting through the REIT mines, it’s possible to uncover a jewel disguised as coal - preparing for a day in the sun when the true potential is unlocked.
    • Excel Trust trades at $11.99 and I believe that Mr. Market has overlooked the potential for the shares.
    • I consider Excel Trust to be a "diamond in the rough" and I intend to initiate a BUY rating on the shares.
  • LTC's Sweet Monthly Dividend Is Icing On The Cake
    Editors' Pick • Oct. 6, 2014 LTC 25 Comments

    Summary

    • The continued "graying of America" should result in increased demand for long-term care services and related properties.
    • LTC has a very healthy balance sheet with less than 1% of secured (mortgage) debt.
    • LTC's track record for dividend growth is the icing on the cake, and because the company pays monthly, I can lick the icing on the spoon every month!
  • Flying Under The Radar: A Tactical Small-Cap REIT Approach
    Oct. 6, 2014 ADC, AHP, ARCP 33 Comments

    Summary

    • The lack of Wall Street coverage and investor interest can also result in shares remaining undervalued - especially in down markets - for extended periods of time.
    • Due to the decreased institutional support, there's a better chance that the REITs will result in an underestimation of operational health and growth prospects.
    • Because of their contractual lease driven revenue attributes, REITs provide more predictability in terms of forward-looking fundamentals.
  • Trick Or Treat, You Can't Beat This REIT
    Oct. 2, 2014 O 96 Comments

    Summary

    • Why is it that REITs are becoming spooked with the mere whisper of rising rates?
    • While most all Triple Net REITs have seen price volatility, the most essential element to consider is fundamentals.
    • The dividend spigot is flowing and it’s time for Realty Income to pour some water on Mr. Market.
  • Why I Have Become An Extremely Conservative REIT Investor
    Sep. 30, 2014 ADC, DLR, KIM 48 Comments

    Summary

    • To fully comprehend the potential for loss, I had to gain the necessary experience that enabled me to become a better risk manager – and ultimately a better risk taker.
    • Sometimes it took a few hard turns to reach the finish line, but making mistakes it an absolutely essential element in the investing process.
    • “You’re unlikely to succeed for long if you haven’t dealt explicitly with risk”. Howard Marks.
    • By distinguishing myself as an investor (and not a speculator) I have gained a critical advantage in which I know how to both control risk and generate returns.
  • Bob Evans May Soon Be 'Delivering Farm Fresh' REIT Revenue
    Editors' Pick • Sep. 29, 2014 BOBE 20 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week, The Wall Street Journal reported that several REITs had expressed an interest in buying the real estate owned by Bob Evans.
    • "The company's stock price does not reflect the significant embedded value of the owned real estate." - Sandell Asset Management.
    • Sandell's arguments are solid, and while owning real estate is an important ingredient for wealth creation, the most efficient structure for Bob Evans is to explore a strategic sale/leaseback transaction.