Brad Zigler

Gold Stocks Not Driven by Larger Market

But it DOES matter. Perhaps not for you, but certainly for those yet to acquire an interest in gold. For them, the differential performance potential of gold stocks versus bullion is VERY important.


On May 05 10:04 PM Sakata wrote:

> In response to the first two comments:
>
> I bought a bucketful of about 50 pink sheet miners back at the end
> of October when they bottomed out. So far I have had 17 which doubled
> and three of those tripled. I had a few losses of course, but I am
> up 43% on the bucket load.
>
> But am I smug? Not even close! GDX is up even more (do hold a sizeable
> junk of that also) so I probably could have done better. I also have
> quite a bit of physical silver and gold and they are up more than
> the pink sheet stocks.
>
> So what is the point of this post? It really doesn't matter how you
> are positioned in the mining and metals sector. As long as you are
> in it then you made a whole lot more than anyone else over the last
> six months. And you are going to make a lot more in the coming years.
> So let's not get hung up on small, short-term changes. The wise people
> are in this for the long haul and don't worry about what happens
> over a relatively short six-month period.

Will Gold Stock Earnings Surprise Anyone?

Bears are looking for a test of the $767 level in June futures.

Will Gold Stock Earnings Surprise Anyone?

For futures traders in the June COMEX contract, the $850 level's in view.


On Apr 18 02:06 PM Brad Zigler wrote:

> Well, there was a LOT of technical damage done to bullion this past
> week. Spot gold loco London broke below its October-February trendline;
> the nearby COMEX contract cracked through its 100-day moving average
> and is now within a day of taking out its 200-day moving average.
>
>
>

Will Gold Stock Earnings Surprise Anyone?

Well, there was a LOT of technical damage done to bullion this past week. Spot gold loco London broke below its October-February trendline; the nearby COMEX contract cracked through its 100-day moving average and is now within a day of taking out its 200-day moving average.




On Apr 18 12:43 PM RiskReturnOptimizer wrote:

> CNBC is teaching the purple crayon rule ... and telling people that
> GLD has put in double top, and will break down much lower soon.
>
>
> Not sure fundamentals support that view, but concerned their millions
> of viewers will take their advice. Maybe we wait for those amateurs
> to exit the gold market, and we BUY, BUY, BUY more, until the eventual
> 1000+ target is achieved.

Will Gold Stock Earnings Surprise Anyone?

Well, differences are what makes a market a market. Circumstances change, as do market participants' viewpoints.

We're all dealing with perceptions of value. Manny's sense of value is not the same as Moe's or Jack's.

Issuing the fiat "buy" could well be inappropriate for certain individuals.


On Apr 17 10:55 AM GMiki1 wrote:

> And then another turning point comes and it's all different again.
> What's the turning point? A technical chartist's hidden pivot? An
> international incident? Or do these two strangely coincide? Hold
> a few gold and silver stocks as well as physical. The PMs have gotten
> beaten up this week so buy.

Will Gold Stock Earnings Surprise Anyone?

Expectations--and how they're met--are especially critical at market turning points. In a perfect world--for analysts--company earnings would match forecasts. There'd be, as a result, no reaction trade. But that doesn't happen. Company earnings DO surprise analysts and traders; the market DOES react to these surprise.

All that's being done here is to attempt quantification of a risk factor. Traders facing a known risk, then, can take steps to avoid or counteract it.

How superficial is THAT?

Gold Traders Whipsawed

The timing of the spike doesn't jibe with the release of the inflation reports. PPI and CPI figures were released before the opening of the COMEX gold day session on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.

There's a much more simple explanation.. The COMEX day session closes about the time the Fed enters into open market operations and when its news releases are typically published. Day session traders didn't have a chance to react to the Fed's action.Traders in the electronic overnight market did.

Commodities vs. Commodity Stocks Redux

Fred & Sakata -

To get longer-term perspective on gold/gold stock performance and a look at the current dynamic, see today's "Desktop" at Hard Assets Investor: www.hardassetsinvestor...

Whither Gold Stocks?

The 18-month reward-to-risk ratio (volatility vs return) for GDX is -.04; for GLD, it's +0.50.

By what process are you assessing ratios?


On Feb 18 02:39 AM silver-bullet wrote:

> If anything, the risk-reward ratio currently favors making bets (though
> not big ones) that the monetary metals could correct, perhaps even
> severely.

Whither Gold Stocks?

You don't have to go very far back to see gold stock outperformance. From September 2005 to May 2006 miners appreciated at a much faster clip than gold. A more recent albeit briefer excursion was in the fall of 2007.


On Feb 16 01:03 PM Unexpected wrote:

> I recall in the 1978-1980 bull market in gold that the dollar and
> gold bullion got in sync and moved together to the upside. That is
> what seems to be occuring now. Also, gold stocks, at the same time,
> bolted to the upside. The mining stocks usually lead gold bullion
> rallies, but in 1980 after lagging, they not only caught up, but
> investors who leveraged those positions made a lot more money than
> their counterparts in bullion. Even after gold peaked, gold stocks
> continued to perform nicely. In my opinion, that's probably what
> we're going to see again.

Gold Hedging: Up Close And Personal

Those aren't prices; they're hedge ratios.


On Dec 02 08:48 AM ArchDukeFerdinand wrote:

> The prices quoted on some of these gold stock is totally inaccurate.
>
> NG is selling for .55 cents and AGT is around .13 cents.

Gold Hedging: Up Close And Personal

Selling and rebuying is market timing itself. The hedge dampens volatility which preserves capital.


On Dec 01 09:32 PM Smarty_Pants wrote:

> I can never understand why I would want to hedge one stock with another
> under the presumption they will offset each other. This is essentially
> a variation on market timing because in order to take advantage of
> the expected gold rally you have to know when to remove the hedge
> (as gold starts a bull run).
>
> Why not just sell your gold stock and wait for the point where you
> would otherwise remove the hedge and buy the stock back again? Is
> this not equivalent to a pure hedge?