Brad Zigler

Gold Stocks Not Driven by Larger Market

But it DOES matter. Perhaps not for you, but certainly for those yet to acquire an interest in gold. For them, the differential performance potential of gold stocks versus bullion is VERY important.


On May 05 10:04 PM Sakata wrote:

> In response to the first two comments:
>
> I bought a bucketful of about 50 pink sheet miners back at the end
> of October when they bottomed out. So far I have had 17 which doubled
> and three of those tripled. I had a few losses of course, but I am
> up 43% on the bucket load.
>
> But am I smug? Not even close! GDX is up even more (do hold a sizeable
> junk of that also) so I probably could have done better. I also have
> quite a bit of physical silver and gold and they are up more than
> the pink sheet stocks.
>
> So what is the point of this post? It really doesn't matter how you
> are positioned in the mining and metals sector. As long as you are
> in it then you made a whole lot more than anyone else over the last
> six months. And you are going to make a lot more in the coming years.
> So let's not get hung up on small, short-term changes. The wise people
> are in this for the long haul and don't worry about what happens
> over a relatively short six-month period.

Will Gold Stock Earnings Surprise Anyone?

Bears are looking for a test of the $767 level in June futures.

Will Gold Stock Earnings Surprise Anyone?

For futures traders in the June COMEX contract, the $850 level's in view.


On Apr 18 02:06 PM Brad Zigler wrote:

> Well, there was a LOT of technical damage done to bullion this past
> week. Spot gold loco London broke below its October-February trendline;
> the nearby COMEX contract cracked through its 100-day moving average
> and is now within a day of taking out its 200-day moving average.
>
>
>

Will Gold Stock Earnings Surprise Anyone?

Well, there was a LOT of technical damage done to bullion this past week. Spot gold loco London broke below its October-February trendline; the nearby COMEX contract cracked through its 100-day moving average and is now within a day of taking out its 200-day moving average.




On Apr 18 12:43 PM RiskReturnOptimizer wrote:

> CNBC is teaching the purple crayon rule ... and telling people that
> GLD has put in double top, and will break down much lower soon.
>
>
> Not sure fundamentals support that view, but concerned their millions
> of viewers will take their advice. Maybe we wait for those amateurs
> to exit the gold market, and we BUY, BUY, BUY more, until the eventual
> 1000+ target is achieved.

Will Gold Stock Earnings Surprise Anyone?

Well, differences are what makes a market a market. Circumstances change, as do market participants' viewpoints.

We're all dealing with perceptions of value. Manny's sense of value is not the same as Moe's or Jack's.

Issuing the fiat "buy" could well be inappropriate for certain individuals.


On Apr 17 10:55 AM GMiki1 wrote:

> And then another turning point comes and it's all different again.
> What's the turning point? A technical chartist's hidden pivot? An
> international incident? Or do these two strangely coincide? Hold
> a few gold and silver stocks as well as physical. The PMs have gotten
> beaten up this week so buy.

Will Gold Stock Earnings Surprise Anyone?

Expectations--and how they're met--are especially critical at market turning points. In a perfect world--for analysts--company earnings would match forecasts. There'd be, as a result, no reaction trade. But that doesn't happen. Company earnings DO surprise analysts and traders; the market DOES react to these surprise.

All that's being done here is to attempt quantification of a risk factor. Traders facing a known risk, then, can take steps to avoid or counteract it.

How superficial is THAT?

Another Way to Hedge Gold Stocks

Using DZZ hedges gold volatility, not the equity or management risk embedded in a stock's price.

Thus, with gold volatility suppressed, the value (negative or positive) of the company's management talent shines through (filtered through stock market beta, of course).




On Dec 02 08:59 PM Georealist wrote:

> Just a few things that need some light..First.when someone BUYS DZZ
> they are most certainly NOT hedging AUY or any other mining stock.
> They ARE hedging (establishing a Double Short positions) gold..<br/>Minin...
> stocks move..more thanone would hope..in alternate universes..and
> an investor is certainly not covering specific risk in AUY...
>
> I have a little different take on the whole long position side.....and
> the short. I'd BUY gold (GLD) any time we move to a standard deviation
> below 2 for the 52 week moving average. I'd go long DZZ (in a conservative
> averaging in basis!) at 2 or 3 standard deviations ABOVE the 52 week
> average gold price.
> It's all about the percentages baby...they didn't build Las Vegas
> going all in.