Nvidia (NVDA) faces a major strategic problem. Integrated graphics, in the form of Intel's (INTC) Ivy Bridge and AMD's (AMD) newly released Trinity, are rapidly reaching the point of being good enough for the majority of usage cases. Integrated graphics processors are now capable of real time video transcoding and smooth game playing at common laptop resolutions. Three or four years ago, seeing this type of performance from an integrated chip would have been unthinkable.

Furthermore, the relative performance of integrated graphics is likely to increase substantially in the next couple years. Intel's Haswell GT3 graphics chip is projected to have performance increases of at least 50% over Ivy Bridge, and possibly much more. Current Intel Ivy Bridge processors have an incredibly small die size, at 160mm2 for a quad core model. This means the company can devote die space to scaling graphics performance with great flexibility.

AMD has

Since the 1960s, hard disk drives (HDDs) have been the dominant form of storage for computers. Over the last few years, solid state drives (SSDs) have begun to emerge as a viable alternative, promising greater stability, superior performance, and better power usage. As a result of this, the SSD industry has seen major growth. Intel (INTC) has specified usage of flash storage as part of its Ultrabook standard, Apple (AAPL) already uses SSDs exclusively in its Macbook Air product line and is likely to make them standard in the next model of Macbook Pros, and companies like OCZ Technology (OCZ), which have traditionally had no role in desktop or laptop storage, have released SSD products of their own.

While the industry has a great deal of potential for rapid growth, investors should also be cautious. Starting in the late 1990s manufacturers of RAM found it increasingly difficult to differentiate

Zynga (ZNGA) had been a tricky stock for the market to price. The general excitement over social networking has been counterbalanced by concern over the reliance on Facebook and sustainability of a virtual goods model. Recently the stock received a boost on news of plans to move into the legal gambling sector. These issues have already been extensively covered by analysts and popular media.

Zynga faces another major negative that has been largely overlooked by analysts - the abysmal state of employee relations. Prior to the IPO reports surfaced of efforts to force employees to hand back unvested stock. Other news articles have explored the harsh corporate culture - the New York Times reports that Zynga has had major acquisition offers rejected due to concerns over Zynga's treatment of employees.

This situation has become worse, not better. On Glassdor.com, a website which allows for employees to

In 2011, Microsoft (MSFT) announced that Windows 8, due for release in late 2012, would be compatible with ARM (ARMH) based processors, in addition to the standard x86 chips produced by Intel (INTC), AMD (AMD), and to a much lesser extent VIA Technologies. This announcement sparked a great deal of excitement among the tech community at the prospect of greatly increased processor competition, and speculation over possible outcomes. Current opinion seems to be split among 3 different scenarios, with different consequences for investors.

Outcome One: Market Segregation

In this scenario, ARM-based products and x86 based products occupy distinct market segments and have relatively little competition amongst each other. Under such a scenario, Microsoft would benefit from exposure to a larger market that is currently the domain of Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG). Hardware manufacturers should see little impact - they already serve these markets, just under a different software

To generate strong returns in the tech sector, it is important to get ahead of the market and make long run predictions about companies. One company whose long run value I am very skeptical about is Nvidia (NVDA). Investors who just look to financial indicators are missing the point - there are 3 key reasons why Nvidia is likely to run into trouble over the next 3-5 years.

1. I have previously written about the benefits of a licensing model over direct chip production. Nvidia's main product in the mobile sector, the Tegra, is designed and produced in house. This exposes Nvidia to a great deal of risk that would be avoided under a licensing model.
2. More damaging is the increasing competition from other mobile chip makers. Nvidia has traditionally occupied a market niche for high end smartphones, which is likely to face increasing competition from Intel's (INTC) Medfield. Indeed, the

If the last 5 years have taught investors anything, it’s that “safe” debt holdings are often far riskier than ratings may suggest. One particularly prevalent type of debt that has been largely ignored by analysts is student loan debt, which recently passed credit card debt as the single largest type of unsecured debt in the United States, with total value exceeding a trillion dollars. Companies holding substantial debt of this type, such as Sallie Mae (SLM) and Nelnet (NNI), may face much greater downside risk than has been accounted for in their share prices.

On the face, student loan debt should be extremely safe. Bankruptcy proceedings can only remove student loan debt in the case of “undue hardship”, and courts will allow for garnishment of wages to recoup on missed payments. Federal loans are also guaranteed by the Department of Education, further reducing apparent risk. Essentially, default is impossible

Intel (INTC) used the recent Consumer Electronics Show to unveil Medfield - its low power System on a Chip (SoC) for smartphones and tablets. While Intel uses its own graphic technology in desktop processors, a look at the chip design reveals that video and graphics are handled by the PowerVR 540, a product of Imagination Technologies (IGNMF.PK).

The PowerVR series was already a serious contender in the smartphone/tablet sector - Apple (AAPL) uses their IP in its mobile and devices and owns a sizable stake in Imagination Technologies. However, they faced competition from Nvidia's (NVDA) Tegra and Qualcomm's (QCOM) Adreno. What Medfield signals is that Intel is unlikely to scale down its own graphics technology to smartphones, and instead rely on licensing deals to supplement its processors. As a result of this, Imagination Technologies now faces considerable long term growth potential for 2 major reasons.

1. Windows 8 will be