The Bakken And The Mississippian Lime: A Comparison [View article]
The IRRs, EURs and well cost figures in the piece above were obtained from the companies themselves. This article was written on September 17, 2012 and since that date SandRidge has revised its IRRs significantly as its wells haven't met company expectations. I'll admit it was a mistake of mine to rely on company data.
As for your modeling issue, they're assuming the lifespan of the well is 120 months or 10 years, so that may be the difference.
GMX Resources: The Survival Kit Must Have The Niobrara Shale On Top [View article]
Their Bakken acreage isn't going to payback for 4 + years and I haven't seen one well in Goshen County, WY that worked. I like the Niobrara, but even the acreage that works there (Wattenberg excluded) isn't more than an ancillary piece for a company (see EOG's Heresford Ranch or CRZO).
I wouldn't touch GMXR with a 10 foot pole. Chapter 9 is looming.
The Bakken And The Mississippian Lime: A Comparison [View article]
I wrote this piece: http://bit.ly/YUcpHF before SD sold its Permian. I believe I posted it to SA so you must have missed it. Devon Shire from SA wrote a good article a couple weeks after mine was published concerning SD's returns: http://seekingalpha.co... . Full disclosure, I dumped SD at ~$7.30 a couple weeks ago and have no plans to re-enter.
Abraxas Petroleum: Still Searching For Its Core Asset [View article]
James,
I appreciate the comments and will look for that article. This piece wasn't a valuation, it was a drill down in to their asset base. I made note that the company has a low valuation, but no where did I talk about what it's true value might be. Oil and gas exploration is a risky endeavor, so I look at companies I'm looking for a path to long-term growth.
Abraxas Petroleum: Still Searching For Its Core Asset [View article]
According to the Texas Railroad Commission the well was completed on March 6, 2012 and produced 21,410 barrels of liquids and 4,852 Mcf of natural gas during March. I assumed the well produced 25 days during the month of March and if you crunch those numbers you will get 889. During April, the well produced slightly more oil and more than triple the amount of gas.
It's possible these wells produced for less than 30 days during those months which, if the well fell off, could explain the difference. I calculate my own data based off of publicly available data and because the State of Texas doesn't give days a well produced in a month, I have to make some assumptions. Usually, I'm pretty close. I should have footnoted the data
Abraxas Petroleum: Still Searching For Its Core Asset [View article]
Their valuation is certainly low, but after taking a close look at their assets I didn't see anything that's going to give them say, ten years of growth and that speaks to their low multiples. I don't think that's a bad thing as companies don't need to start out with 90k acres in the Eagle Ford to be successful, I was just highlighting that point. It's easy for investors to look at their presentation and see 23k in the Bakken and 7k in the Eagle Ford and wonder why this company trades so low. I believe my article explains why that is. I am open to being wrong though.
What Happened To The Economics Of Sandridge's Mississippian Wells? [View article]
The company made some early assumptions about the play that were incorrect. Now that they've got two years of production history on some of their earlier wells and have seen huge declines on their bigger wells, they've decided to revise those assumptions down based on that data. It bothers me that their well performance in the Mississippian hasn't gotten any better over time (you'd like to see an upward trajectory as the company figures out the science). With that said, it's interesting that both SD and RRC are looking to make this play their focus from an oil standpoint. RRC's early results have been strong and new thinking points to the Nemaha Ridge as the play's sweet spot. It's clear there's a lot of oil in the Miss, so maybe the science/thinking has to catch up a bit.
A Close Look At SandRidge's Results In The Mississippian [View article]
Kansas reports at a lease level, but the wells on I included in this report only have one well on the lease. As I said before, Oklahoma doesn't report oil production (they do report gas production) but the data is available on purchaser reports. Outside of those two, some report by lease, some by well. Texas reports by well for gas and by lease for oil. North Dakota and Colorado both report by well.
I'm not arguing with you, I'm just making sure the readers of this article don't leave thinking you're doing anything here but trying to obscure facts.
A Close Look At SandRidge's Results In The Mississippian [View article]
Well then as you know, the data comes from purchaser reports that the OCC has searchable on their website. So if you think the data is bad, then you're basically saying the purchaser (ie: Phillips 66) is lying about how much oil they're purchasing from a given company.
A Close Look At SandRidge's Results In The Mississippian [View article]
Thanks Moby. The Eagle Ford also has a lot of gas and liquids and some people think it's the best play on the planet. I'm not putting the Mississippian in that category, but I do think it's economic and there does seem to be a lot of oil there as evidenced by some of the bigger wells. It's an intriguing stock because its reserves are trading at the levels of a natural gas company and half of those reserves are oil. With that said, I'd be lying if I didn't ask myself that same question sometimes.
A Close Look At SandRidge's Results In The Mississippian [View article]
The OCC doesn't track oil production, so your comment about their data being "suspicious" doesn't make much sense. As for these "auditors" you talked to, I guess we'll find out when SD's 2012 reserve report comes out.
A Close Look At SandRidge's Results In The Mississippian [View article]
My gut reaction is yes for the reason you stated. They have tier 2 assets that will produce a lot of oil for the owner. But if you look at the company's metrics, they just don't stack up. I'm torn on SandRidge...I don't think I'd be selling them now, but if I was buying there's probably better opportunities out there.
The Bakken And The Mississippian Lime: A Comparison [View article]
As for your modeling issue, they're assuming the lifespan of the well is 120 months or 10 years, so that may be the difference.
Abraxas Petroleum: Still Searching For Its Core Asset [View article]
GMX Resources: The Survival Kit Must Have The Niobrara Shale On Top [View article]
GMX Resources: The Survival Kit Must Have The Niobrara Shale On Top [View article]
I wouldn't touch GMXR with a 10 foot pole. Chapter 9 is looming.
The Bakken And The Mississippian Lime: A Comparison [View article]
Abraxas Petroleum: Still Searching For Its Core Asset [View article]
I appreciate the comments and will look for that article. This piece wasn't a valuation, it was a drill down in to their asset base. I made note that the company has a low valuation, but no where did I talk about what it's true value might be. Oil and gas exploration is a risky endeavor, so I look at companies I'm looking for a path to long-term growth.
Abraxas Petroleum: Still Searching For Its Core Asset [View article]
It's possible these wells produced for less than 30 days during those months which, if the well fell off, could explain the difference. I calculate my own data based off of publicly available data and because the State of Texas doesn't give days a well produced in a month, I have to make some assumptions. Usually, I'm pretty close. I should have footnoted the data
Abraxas Petroleum: Still Searching For Its Core Asset [View article]
A Close Look At SandRidge's Results In The Mississippian [View article]
What Happened To The Economics Of Sandridge's Mississippian Wells? [View article]
A Close Look At SandRidge's Results In The Mississippian [View article]
I'm not arguing with you, I'm just making sure the readers of this article don't leave thinking you're doing anything here but trying to obscure facts.
A Close Look At SandRidge's Results In The Mississippian [View article]
A Close Look At SandRidge's Results In The Mississippian [View article]
A Close Look At SandRidge's Results In The Mississippian [View article]
A Close Look At SandRidge's Results In The Mississippian [View article]