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Braden Holt

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  • SandRidge's Mississippian Wells Are Improving [View article]
    Those well cards were pulled from thewellmap.com. The data is sourced from the Oklahoma Tax Commission which is sourced above twice.

    This article was written using data on approximately 290 wells SandRidge had drilled in the Lime prior to 2013. It does not include Kansas wells which is something that should have been more clear.

    If you want to talk about The Well Map, you can message me separately.
    Dec 25 11:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge's Mississippian Wells Are Improving [View article]
    Right, but the oldest horizontal wells in the Lime are only three years old, so we're using the best data that's available at present. There's not many horizontal oil plays with five years of production data.
    Dec 24 06:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge's Mississippian Wells Are Improving [View article]
    That's another possibility. Thanks Pudentane
    Dec 24 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verticals Could Be Key To Mississippi Lime Development [View article]
    Just because it's a more difficult area to operate, doesn't mean companies shouldn't continue trying to innovate. And when they have good results, they're interesting to talk about. Maybe nothing will come of this, maybe it will become the optimum method of operating low pressure carbonate systems.

    Either way, just because it has always been hit or miss, doesn't mean that will always be the case.
    Jul 11 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verticals Could Be Key To Mississippi Lime Development [View article]
    That's the figure they're using as their average cost per vertical well, so I'm relying on the company for that information. If I was a betting man, I'd guess they got done for close to that figure, but I haven't seen an AFE or asked them about it.
    Jul 11 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bakken And The Mississippian Lime: A Comparison [View article]
    The IRRs, EURs and well cost figures in the piece above were obtained from the companies themselves. This article was written on September 17, 2012 and since that date SandRidge has revised its IRRs significantly as its wells haven't met company expectations. I'll admit it was a mistake of mine to rely on company data.

    As for your modeling issue, they're assuming the lifespan of the well is 120 months or 10 years, so that may be the difference.
    May 16 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abraxas Petroleum: Still Searching For Its Core Asset [View article]
    I defined it as an asset that will provide long-term growth.
    Apr 9 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GMX Resources: The Survival Kit Must Have The Niobrara Shale On Top [View article]
    Ok Chapter 11. Hopefully my point was still clear.
    Mar 23 02:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GMX Resources: The Survival Kit Must Have The Niobrara Shale On Top [View article]
    Their Bakken acreage isn't going to payback for 4 + years and I haven't seen one well in Goshen County, WY that worked. I like the Niobrara, but even the acreage that works there (Wattenberg excluded) isn't more than an ancillary piece for a company (see EOG's Heresford Ranch or CRZO).

    I wouldn't touch GMXR with a 10 foot pole. Chapter 9 is looming.
    Mar 22 11:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bakken And The Mississippian Lime: A Comparison [View article]
    I wrote this piece: http://bit.ly/YUcpHF before SD sold its Permian. I believe I posted it to SA so you must have missed it. Devon Shire from SA wrote a good article a couple weeks after mine was published concerning SD's returns: http://seekingalpha.co... . Full disclosure, I dumped SD at ~$7.30 a couple weeks ago and have no plans to re-enter.
    Feb 6 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abraxas Petroleum: Still Searching For Its Core Asset [View article]
    James,

    I appreciate the comments and will look for that article. This piece wasn't a valuation, it was a drill down in to their asset base. I made note that the company has a low valuation, but no where did I talk about what it's true value might be. Oil and gas exploration is a risky endeavor, so I look at companies I'm looking for a path to long-term growth.
    Jan 10 04:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abraxas Petroleum: Still Searching For Its Core Asset [View article]
    According to the Texas Railroad Commission the well was completed on March 6, 2012 and produced 21,410 barrels of liquids and 4,852 Mcf of natural gas during March. I assumed the well produced 25 days during the month of March and if you crunch those numbers you will get 889. During April, the well produced slightly more oil and more than triple the amount of gas.

    It's possible these wells produced for less than 30 days during those months which, if the well fell off, could explain the difference. I calculate my own data based off of publicly available data and because the State of Texas doesn't give days a well produced in a month, I have to make some assumptions. Usually, I'm pretty close. I should have footnoted the data
    Jan 10 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abraxas Petroleum: Still Searching For Its Core Asset [View article]
    Their valuation is certainly low, but after taking a close look at their assets I didn't see anything that's going to give them say, ten years of growth and that speaks to their low multiples. I don't think that's a bad thing as companies don't need to start out with 90k acres in the Eagle Ford to be successful, I was just highlighting that point. It's easy for investors to look at their presentation and see 23k in the Bakken and 7k in the Eagle Ford and wonder why this company trades so low. I believe my article explains why that is. I am open to being wrong though.
    Jan 10 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Close Look At SandRidge's Results In The Mississippian [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. The company is actually underfunded and highly levered, so they sold the Permian to fund the development of the Mississippian.
    Dec 22 12:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Happened To The Economics Of Sandridge's Mississippian Wells? [View article]
    The company made some early assumptions about the play that were incorrect. Now that they've got two years of production history on some of their earlier wells and have seen huge declines on their bigger wells, they've decided to revise those assumptions down based on that data. It bothers me that their well performance in the Mississippian hasn't gotten any better over time (you'd like to see an upward trajectory as the company figures out the science). With that said, it's interesting that both SD and RRC are looking to make this play their focus from an oil standpoint. RRC's early results have been strong and new thinking points to the Nemaha Ridge as the play's sweet spot. It's clear there's a lot of oil in the Miss, so maybe the science/thinking has to catch up a bit.
    Dec 21 02:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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