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Braden Holt

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  • Value Stock Search: Whiting Petroleum [View article]
    On the other side of the equation: If I did have a position in Whiting and I was telling you to buy them subsequently, couldn't that be mistaken as a conflict of interest?

    My research and analysis should speak for itself. I'm not here to make decisions for you, I'm here to provide information and analysis. I don't run a hedge fund. I don't pump stocks. I look at various stocks for various reasons and write about them. Might I enter Whiting at some point? Sure. Do I plan to in the next 72 hours? No.
    Oct 23 12:51 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge's Mississippian Wells Are Improving [View article]
    Right, but the oldest horizontal wells in the Lime are only three years old, so we're using the best data that's available at present. There's not many horizontal oil plays with five years of production data.
    Dec 24 06:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Close Look At SandRidge's Results In The Mississippian [View article]
    Thanks Moby. The Eagle Ford also has a lot of gas and liquids and some people think it's the best play on the planet. I'm not putting the Mississippian in that category, but I do think it's economic and there does seem to be a lot of oil there as evidenced by some of the bigger wells. It's an intriguing stock because its reserves are trading at the levels of a natural gas company and half of those reserves are oil. With that said, I'd be lying if I didn't ask myself that same question sometimes.
    Dec 18 10:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge's Mississippian Wells Are Improving [View article]
    Those well cards were pulled from thewellmap.com. The data is sourced from the Oklahoma Tax Commission which is sourced above twice.

    This article was written using data on approximately 290 wells SandRidge had drilled in the Lime prior to 2013. It does not include Kansas wells which is something that should have been more clear.

    If you want to talk about The Well Map, you can message me separately.
    Dec 25 11:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GMX Resources: The Survival Kit Must Have The Niobrara Shale On Top [View article]
    Their Bakken acreage isn't going to payback for 4 + years and I haven't seen one well in Goshen County, WY that worked. I like the Niobrara, but even the acreage that works there (Wattenberg excluded) isn't more than an ancillary piece for a company (see EOG's Heresford Ranch or CRZO).

    I wouldn't touch GMXR with a 10 foot pole. Chapter 9 is looming.
    Mar 22 11:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Happened To The Economics Of Sandridge's Mississippian Wells? [View article]
    The company made some early assumptions about the play that were incorrect. Now that they've got two years of production history on some of their earlier wells and have seen huge declines on their bigger wells, they've decided to revise those assumptions down based on that data. It bothers me that their well performance in the Mississippian hasn't gotten any better over time (you'd like to see an upward trajectory as the company figures out the science). With that said, it's interesting that both SD and RRC are looking to make this play their focus from an oil standpoint. RRC's early results have been strong and new thinking points to the Nemaha Ridge as the play's sweet spot. It's clear there's a lot of oil in the Miss, so maybe the science/thinking has to catch up a bit.
    Dec 21 02:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Close Look At SandRidge's Results In The Mississippian [View article]
    You're welcome. If he still intends to sell the Permian, my personal opinion is that he should be ousted. With that said, I would buy/sell the stock assuming he stays on.
    Dec 17 01:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GMX Resources: The Survival Kit Must Have The Niobrara Shale On Top [View article]
    Ok Chapter 11. Hopefully my point was still clear.
    Mar 23 02:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Close Look At SandRidge's Results In The Mississippian [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. The company is actually underfunded and highly levered, so they sold the Permian to fund the development of the Mississippian.
    Dec 22 12:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Close Look At SandRidge's Results In The Mississippian [View article]
    Kansas reports at a lease level, but the wells on I included in this report only have one well on the lease. As I said before, Oklahoma doesn't report oil production (they do report gas production) but the data is available on purchaser reports. Outside of those two, some report by lease, some by well. Texas reports by well for gas and by lease for oil. North Dakota and Colorado both report by well.

    I'm not arguing with you, I'm just making sure the readers of this article don't leave thinking you're doing anything here but trying to obscure facts.
    Dec 18 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Close Look At SandRidge's Results In The Mississippian [View article]
    Well then as you know, the data comes from purchaser reports that the OCC has searchable on their website. So if you think the data is bad, then you're basically saying the purchaser (ie: Phillips 66) is lying about how much oil they're purchasing from a given company.



    Dec 18 01:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Close Look At SandRidge's Results In The Mississippian [View article]
    I know they drilled a handful of wells in Garfield last year, but I haven't looked at the results. A cursory check shows similar to Grant, but it's a small sample size. It looks like they have a lot of leasehold there so I would expect them to get to it soon.
    Dec 17 02:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeing The Forest Through The Debt [View article]
    The "screw EOG" comment may not have come off the way I intended it to. What I was trying to say is that EOG is a fantastic company who gets a lot of coverage, let's look at a much less sexy company to see if we can find some value.

    I agree that financing is an unfortunate distraction for some of these small caps, particularly KOG. It will be interesting to see how they manage their spending moving forward. If they believe in the long-term fundamentals of the price of oil they don't need to overextend themselves because the oil itself isn't going anywhere.
    Nov 1 11:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Value Stock Search: Whiting Petroleum [View article]
    Thanks Mike.
    Oct 24 06:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bakken And The Mississippian Lime: A Comparison [View article]
    Good point, there's definitely analysis to be done there. If you're curious, an easy way to get some preliminary data would be to dig through presentations of Lime companies and look at the upside price decks on their type curves.
    Sep 17 04:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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