Seeking Alpha

Bradley Lamensdorf

 
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  • Risk Reward Shows Market In The Toilet For 2015
    Editors' Pick • Wed, Jan. 21 SPY, SH 93 Comments

    Summary

    • We have consistently referred to four specific pillars that assist us in analyzing and prognosticating the market - sentiment, breadth, liquidity and valuation.
    • Currently all four areas are in the 'crapper', so to speak.
    • Here we delve into all four pillars in order to provide our readers with an in depth intermediate-term analysis of what to expect during the first half of 2015.
  • Market Timing Report: Sentiment Returns To Overbought Territory
    Editors' Pick • Dec. 15, 2014 SPY, SH 18 Comments

    Summary

    • The anticipated mid-October bounce has now occurred. Simultaneously, the sentiment gauges have once again moved into overbought territory.
    • When looking at volume, breadth and an excessively thin list of 52-week highs, it becomes clear that 2014 was a distinct period in a very large topping process.
    • This situation will lead to a significantly lower market in the year to come.
  • Auto Finance: Another Subprime Bubble?
    Editors' Pick • Nov. 5, 2014 SC, TCB, LKQ 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Credit risk has built up from rapidly escalating lower quality loan exposure, coupled with artificially high auto and related sales enabled by easy credit.
    • The first signs of deterioration have appeared: delinquencies and repossessions are increasing already.
    • The most direct way to play is to short lenders exposed to subprime auto loans. Shorting companies benefitting from auto sales and discretionary vehicles works as well.
    • Conn's offers an example of what could happen.
  • Market Timing Report: Short-Term Sentiment Improves, Long-Term Outlook Worsens
    Editors' Pick • Oct. 27, 2014 SPY, SH 14 Comments

    Summary

    • We are in the midst of a correction, with two important short-term indicators having moved into an oversold position.
    • Still, intermediate-term indicators have not yet reached oversold levels.
    • Time will tell whether we reach an intermediate-term oversold position, which would require much more selling.
  • Market Timing Report: 10-20% Correction Due To Extreme Sentiment And Leverage
    Editors' Pick • Oct. 1, 2014 SPY, SH 453 Comments

    Summary

    • There are occasions when the market detaches from its true value. This can occur due to various external forces such as overexcited investors, or fads that promise to change the world’s landscape (the internet, Facebook).
    • We believe that the stock market is presently overreaching its real value.
    • This month we will review indicators that assess sentiment and margin within the marketplace.
  • United Natural Foods: Indigestion Ahead
       • Aug. 26, 2014 UNFI 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Increasingly crowded organic market threatens UNFI's key customer, Whole Foods.
    • Weakening margins and slow working capital lead to negative cash flows, despite sales growth.
    • Rising leverage will also pressure the stock.
  • Market Timing Report: Indicators Are Cued Up For A Bear Market
    Editors' Pick • Aug. 22, 2014 SPY, SH 202 Comments

    Summary

    • LMTR focuses on four areas of market analysis when determining risk: sentiment, breadth, valuation and market liquidity.
    • We are now at the midway point of the year and are currently seeing poor readings in all four areas.
    • Thus, things are cued up for a substantial pullback.
  • Close The Door On E2open
       • Jul. 22, 2014 EOPN 3 Comments

    Summary

    • E2open's sales growth is slowing, and revenue recognition mechanics merit additional caution.
    • Lack of historical profitability, and the losses are deepening.
    • Insiders have been selling shares.
  • Market Timing Report: Risk Soars As Bond Spreads Collapse
    Editors' Pick • Jun. 16, 2014 SPY, SH 51 Comments

    Summary

    • The spread between governments and junk bonds has narrowed to such an extreme extent that it has resulted in the biggest risk seen in 40 years.
    • While corrections in the stock market are always scary, the most serious corrections arrive when the fixed income market is also misbehaving.
    • Our position remains unchanged at 32.5% short.
  • Market Timing Report: Momentum Stocks Crack - Are The Indexes Next?
    May. 13, 2014 SPY, SH 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Many of last year’s winners have already given back the gains they made last year.
    • Another concern has been the recent weakness in financial stocks.
    • Insider selling remains excessively high, and the high-flying stocks of last fall are beginning to buckle.
    • While the indexes have not yet shown a substantial decline, many cracks are beginning to appear, suggesting that a larger correction is on its way.
  • Market Timing Report: Negative Divergences Set The Stage For A Nasty Spill
    Editors' Pick • Mar. 25, 2014 SPY, SH 31 Comments

    Summary

    • In the stock market, there has historically been a pronounced correlation between what occurs in January and what happens for the remainder of that year.
    • The January 2014 correction and subsequent rally have left some significant negative divergences and subsurface weakness, which the indexes are masking.
    • The "January Barometer" is firmly in place, insider selling is at alarmingly high levels and margin debt is being used in a reckless fashion.
    • Thus, we feel the stage has been set for a nasty spill in the stock market.
  • An Interview With The Creator Of The Forensic Accounting ETF
    Feb. 20, 2014 FLAG 12 Comments
  • Lumber Liquidators: An Overstretched Valuation Erected On A Shaky Foundation
       • Feb. 7, 2014 LL 8 Comments
  • Market Timing Report: Bullish Sentiment Reaches Multi-Decade Highs
    Editors' Pick • Feb. 7, 2014 SPY, SH 83 Comments
  • The Short Case For Zeltiq Aesthetics
       • Jan. 25, 2014 ZLTQ 5 Comments
  • Market Timing Report: Buckle Up For 2014
    Editors' Pick • Jan. 3, 2014 SPY, IVV 25 Comments
  • Market Timing Report: Rough Waters Ahead
    Editors' Pick • Nov. 28, 2013 SPY, IVV 126 Comments